National Bureau of Statistics: In July, the national economy continued to recover steadily; exports increased year-on-year for four consecutive months; new products such as 3D printing maintained rapid growth in
July, the growth rate of retail sales of commodities turned from negative to positive for the first time this year
According to Fu Linghui, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics, the price of pork rose significantly in July due to the expansion of market demand and the impact of the flooding of live pigs. From January to July, the national consumer prices rose by 3.7% year-on-year, which was 0.1 percentage point lower than that from January to June, and remained stable overall. The growth rate of high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing is significantly faster than that of the entire industry above designated size. The national economy continued to recover steadily in July, and major economic indicators continued to improve. However, the global new crown pneumonia epidemic is still spreading, the international economic environment is severe and complex, and domestic structural, institutional, and cyclical contradictions coexist, and development is facing many difficulties and challenges.
Beijing News On August 14, the State Information Office held a press conference on the operation of the national economy in July 2020. According to Fu Linghui, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics, the retail sales of goods in July increased by 0.2% year-on-year, turning from negative to positive for the first time this year. In July, the surveyed unemployment rate among the 25-59 year-old employment subjects fell by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. Exports increased year-on-year for 4 consecutive months, better than expected.
Retail sales of goods in July increased by 0.2% year-on-year
Fu Linghui introduced that economic stability recovery is mainly manifested in five aspects.
Production rose steadily. In terms of industry, the added value of industries above designated size in July increased by 4.8% year-on-year, the growth rate was the same as the previous month; in terms of products and industries, 60% of products and industries achieved growth, of which automobile and electronic pillar industries grew significantly faster. The service industry production index increased by 3.5% year-on-year in July, and the growth rate was 1.2 percentage points higher than the previous month.
Demand is gradually improving. In terms of consumption, the total retail sales of consumer goods in July fell by 1.1% year-on-year, and the rate of decline narrowed by 0.7 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, from the perspective of retail sales of goods, the retail sales of goods in June dropped by 0.2% year-on-year, and in July it increased by 0.2% year-on-year, which is the first time since the beginning of this year to turn from negative to positive. In terms of investment, investment in fixed assets from January to July fell by 1.6% year-on-year, and the rate of decline narrowed by 1.5 percentage points from January to June.
The employment situation is generally stable. The unemployment rate in the urban survey in July was 5.7%, the same as the previous month. The surveyed unemployment rate of the 25-59 year-old employment subjects was 5.0%, a decrease of 0.2% from the previous month.
Price increases are moderate. Although due to the influence of the flood, consumer prices in July rose by 2.7% year-on-year, which was a slight increase from the previous month, but overall it was still less than 3%, still a moderate increase.
The foreign trade situation is better than expected. National imports and exports in July increased by 6.5% year-on-year, of which exports increased by 10.4%; exports increased year-on-year for four consecutive months, better than expected. Foreign exchange reserves have stabilized at more than US$3.1 trillion, an increase of US$42.1 billion at the end of July compared with the end of June.
New products such as 3D printing equipment maintain rapid growth
Fu Linghui said that the economic upturn in July continued.
The trend of industrial upgrading has not changed. From an industrial perspective, among the industries above designated size, high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing increased by 9.8% and 13% respectively year-on-year, which were significantly faster than the growth of the entire industry above designated size. From the perspective of the service industry, the growth trend of the modern service industry is good. In July, the production index of information transmission, software and information technology services increased by 13.7% year-on-year, which was also faster than the growth of the overall service industry.
New development momentum continues to increase. Under the impact of the epidemic, online sales, Internet education, and medical services have developed rapidly. The online retail sales of physical goods from January to July increased by 15.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate was faster than that from January to June. At the same time, some new products are growing strongly, such as 3D printing equipment, smart watches, and smart bracelets.
Market expectations are improving overall. In July, China's manufacturing PMI was 51.1%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; the non-manufacturing business activity index was 54.2%, and both manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs were above the threshold for five consecutive months.
Doubt 1
Why did pork prices increase significantly in July?
Catering services gradually recovered and demand expanded; the southern flood situation adversely affected the production and transportation of pigs
According to statistics, food prices in July rose by 13.2% year-on-year, of which pork prices rose by 85.7% year-on-year, and fresh vegetables prices rose by 7.9% year-on-year.
Fu Linghui responded that the increase in pork prices is mainly due to two factors. On the one hand, as companies resume work and resume production, catering services have gradually recovered, and the demand for catering-related pork has increased; on the other hand, it is due to the southern flood in July. It has an adverse effect on the production and distribution of live pigs, and has affected the price increase of pork.
He said that since last year, due to some unreasonable measures to restrict breeding, the production capacity of pigs has been affected to a certain extent. Governments at all levels have increased the production capacity of live pigs in a timely manner. According to the survey, the number of live pigs has been increasing seasonally, but from the perspective of supply, the production and supply of live pigs are still in tight balance, and the high price operation will continue for a period of time. Generally speaking, the price of pork will be sharp. The rise is unlikely.
Regarding the reason for the increase in the price of fresh vegetables, Fu Linghui said that the main reason is that the flood conditions affect production and transportation. The price of fresh vegetables is mainly affected by short-term factors, and the growth cycle of fresh vegetables is relatively short, which will not have a significant impact on the overall price.
Doubt 2
Will the floods affect the annual grain production?
It has a certain impact on the yield of early rice, which is generally controllable; it has a small impact on the autumn grain, and conditions for maintaining stable grain production throughout the year
Food security has recently aroused concern. Will floods in the south have an impact on annual food production? Fu Linghui responded that, as a whole, there are conditions and foundations for maintaining stable grain production throughout the year.
Fu Linghui said that this year's flood disaster has aroused everyone's attention, especially its impact on agricultural production. In general, the flood disasters in the southern region this year have had a certain impact on the yield of early rice. This year, there is a feature that the sown area of early rice has increased more. On the whole, it is generally judged that a bumper harvest of early rice is still possible.
Fu Linghui said that China’s grain production has stabilized at more than 1.3 trillion catties for five consecutive years. At present, grain stocks are relatively sufficient. This year’s summer grain harvest has also reached a record high. Summer grain production has increased by 0.9% over the previous year. The annual increase in grain production has laid a good foundation, and the situation of early rice is generally controllable.
From the perspective of overall grain production, autumn grains account for more than 70% of the annual grain output. At present, 60% of autumn grains are in the northern region, and the impact of floods is relatively small.
"In recent years, investment in agriculture has increased, and domestic disaster resistance and mitigation capabilities have increased. Therefore, as a whole, there are conditions and foundations for maintaining stable food production throughout the year." Fu Linghui said.
Doubt 3
What are the reasons for the better than expected foreign trade?
China's economy has great resilience and potential, and foreign trade companies have strong adaptability; the export of anti-epidemic materials has also played a positive role
Fu Linghui said that the overall situation of foreign trade this year was better than expected. In July, imports and exports increased by 6.5% year-on-year, of which exports increased by 10.4%, achieving positive growth for 4 consecutive months.
He analyzed that there are several main reasons for the better-than-expected growth in foreign trade. First of all, the resilience and potential of China's economy are huge. Enterprises, especially foreign trade enterprises, have relatively strong ability to adjust and adapt to changes in world economy and trade.
Secondly, the government has issued a series of policies to support the stability of foreign trade, such as export credit and export credit insurance, which have played a positive role in stabilizing enterprises and expanding exports.
In addition, China's industrial system is complete, supporting capabilities are relatively strong, and major industries are relatively capable of adapting to changes in external demand.
In addition, facing the impact of the global new crown epidemic, China has played an important role in promoting international anti-epidemic cooperation. The export of a series of anti-epidemic materials has also played an important and positive role in stimulating the entire foreign trade.
Fu Linghui also pointed out that, under the challenge of the spread of the global epidemic, production in some economies has stagnated, and the transfer of some orders to the country has also played an important role in promoting foreign trade growth.
Beijing News reporter Xu Wen