China-Singapore Jingwei Client, August 10, according to data from the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center, on the 10th, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar was reported at 6.9649, a depreciation of 241 basis points, the largest since June 29.
On the previous trading day, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar was reported at 6.9408, the closing price at 16:30 was at 6.9598, and the closing price at 23:30 was at 6.9670.
Source: China Foreign Exchange Trading Center
Last week, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar moved around 6.9, with a cumulative increase of 440 basis points during the week. Among them, on August 6, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar rose sharply by 314 basis points to 6.9438, a record high in the past five months.
At the same time, the US dollar index has continued to weaken recently. As of press time 93.3461, down 0.07%.
Source of recent trends in the US dollar index: Wind
Wang Qing, chief macro analyst at Oriental Jincheng, pointed out that after the outbreak, the Federal Reserve substantially relaxed its monetary policy, and the magnitude was much larger than that of the European Central Bank, which pushed the gap between U.S. Treasury yields and Euro yields to narrow sharply. Push hands directly.
Wang Qing further stated that the US dollar index may fall to around 92 in the short term. In the future, attention should be paid to the influence of the Fed's monetary policy "new measures" on the spread between US and European debt. Historical data shows that changes in interest rate spreads are basically similar to the relative fluctuations of the US dollar index. Judging from this perspective, the low point of this round of the US dollar index may be around 92, that is, there may be a slight downside at the current level. However, considering that the spread between US and European bonds has stabilized in the past three months, it is unlikely that the US dollar index will continue to fall below 90.
The deputy director of the CITIC Securities Research Institute clearly believes that under the influence of fundamental factors and monetary policy factors, the RMB exchange rate has support in the direction of appreciation, and it is possible to approach 6.9. As far as the current situation in China is concerned, the RMB exchange rate that is too strong or too weak is not the "optimal solution." Maintaining the relative stability of the exchange rate within a reasonable range may be more beneficial to the capital market and the economy as a whole.
Regarding the market outlook, Li Chao, chief economist of Zheshang Securities, said in a research report that entering August, the RMB exchange rate continued to appreciate, and the subsequent trend continued to fluctuate. The core variable is the uncertainty of Sino-US friction. As the US election approaches , Trump has the possibility of transferring internal contradictions to the outside world. Sino-US frictions may manifest in trade, technology, finance and other fields, which will disturb the RMB exchange rate and maintain the judgment that the exchange rate will fluctuate between 6.85 and 7.2 during the year. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)