Beijing News (Reporter Jiang Huizi) On August 10, the National Bureau of Statistics released data. In July this year, the national consumer price index rose by 2.7% year-on-year, an increase of 0.2% from the previous month; the month-on-month decline was 0.1%. It was up 0.6%.

　　Food is still the main factor driving CPI. In July, food prices rose 13.2% year-on-year and 2.8% month-on-month.

　　Specifically, the prices of livestock, fresh vegetables, eggs, and aquatic products all increased to varying degrees compared with the previous month; the prices of fresh fruits fell by 4.4%. Compared with the same period last year, the prices of meat, fresh vegetables, aquatic products, and grain were also slightly higher, and the prices of fresh fruits and eggs were lower than the same period last year.

　　Among them, pork prices rose 10.3% month-on-month, rising for the second consecutive month; egg prices rose after falling for nine consecutive months, rising 4.0% in July.

　　Non-food prices were the same month-on-month and year-on-year. Among them, affected by fluctuations in international crude oil prices, gasoline and diesel prices rose by 2.5% and 2.7% respectively; summer trips increased, and the prices of air tickets and hotel accommodation rose by 2.9% and 1.7% respectively.

　　Dong Lijuan, a senior statistician at the City Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that in July, all regions and departments coordinated the epidemic prevention and control, emergency rescue and disaster relief, and economic and social development work, actively implemented the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices, and the overall market operation was orderly. According to estimates, of the 2.7% year-on-year increase in July, the carryover impact of last year's price changes was about 2.9 percentage points, and the impact of the new price increase was about -0.2 percentage points.

Interpretation 1: Pork prices have risen for two consecutive months, will they rise again?

——Experts: The supply and demand are imbalanced in stages, and the possibility of a sharp rise again is small

　　In July, pork prices rose by 85.7% year-on-year, an increase of 4.1 percentage points from the previous month; it also rose 10.3% from the previous month, an increase of 6.7 percentage points from the previous month.

　　Pork prices have risen for two consecutive months. Since the beginning of this year, as the supply of live pigs has improved, pork prices have continued to fall. However, pork prices rebounded in June, rising 3.6% month-on-month. By July, the increase continued and the growth rate expanded, rising 10.3% month-on-month.

　　In terms of the market, data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs showed that the wholesale price of pork in July rose 13.9% month-on-month and 103% year-on-year. The prices of alternative meats, such as beef and mutton, have also risen. The prices of beef and mutton have increased by 17.7% and 10.4% respectively.

　　The National Bureau of Statistics today (August 10) explained the reasons for the increase in pork prices: With the gradual recovery of catering services, the demand for pork consumption continues to increase, and floods in many places have a certain impact on the transportation of pigs, and the supply is still biased. tight.

　　In addition to increasing demand and pressure on transportation, supply is also recovering. The National Bureau of Statistics previously stated that the slight increase in pork prices was due to factors such as the slowdown in slaughter of live pigs, stricter requirements for epidemic prevention and deployment, and reduced imports.

　　Specific to localities, as the only province with a CPI “breaking 5” in the first half of the year, Sichuan's pork price in the first half of the year rose 101.9% year-on-year. The Sichuan Provincial Bureau of Statistics stated that the province’s live pig production was severely impacted by the African swine fever epidemic in the second half of last year. In the early stage, small and medium-sized farmers retired and cleared more pens, and are now gradually resuming pens. In the first half of the year, 22.287 million pigs were slaughtered, a year-on-year decrease of 19.1%.

　　Lian Ping, chief economist of Zhixin Investment, believes that the recent rebound in pork prices has been affected by both supply and demand factors.

　　In terms of demand, after the epidemic has been brought under control, the previously suppressed consumer demand for food and beverages has been gradually released in recent months. While demand is growing rapidly, supply has affected transportation due to recent floods in many places. In addition, pork supply in the previous stage in some places was relatively shrinking. During the recovery process, there was some phase imbalance in the supply and demand relationship.

　　In addition, since the price increase of pork in the same period last year has not yet fully started, the price of pork did not reach the highest level until the end of last year and the beginning of this year. This is the reason why the price increase of pork has been higher year-on-year.

　　With "supply still tight", the two consecutive months of price rebounds mean that pork will usher in a new round of price increases?

　　Lian Ping believes that, on the whole, although demand will further recover as the epidemic stabilizes, supply will also expand significantly at the same time, so as to better match demand. The relationship between supply and demand will gradually improve, and it is unlikely that pork prices will rise sharply again. Based on the pork price situation last year, it can be predicted that the year-on-year data of pork prices will also decline significantly in the second half or fourth quarter of this year.

　　Yang Zhenhai, director of the Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, previously stated that although the production of live pigs has recovered positively, the tight supply of pork has not fundamentally changed. He predicts that the market supply will gradually improve after July, but due to more festivals in the second half of the year and stronger consumption driving force, the pork price peak may appear around September.

Interpretation 2: After 9 consecutive months of decline, the "Rocket Egg" returns?

——Expert: The egg cycle is short, and the price increase will gradually stabilize after 1-2 months

　　The price of eggs turned up after falling for nine consecutive months. In July, it rose 4.0% month-on-month. This is the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics today (August 10). Previously, "the price of eggs rose by more than 60% in a month" has caused heated discussions.

　　Regarding the upturn after 9 months of continuous decline, the National Bureau of Statistics explained that due to the decrease in the stock of laying hens, the egg production rate in summer has declined.

　　According to monitoring by the Ministry of Commerce, the wholesale price of eggs has risen for four consecutive weeks, and the weekly increase has continued to expand. In the latest week (July 27 to August 2), the wholesale price of eggs rose 11.3% from the previous week. Monitoring by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs showed that the wholesale price of eggs was 8.33 yuan/kg on July 31, compared with 6.26 yuan/kg on June 30, an increase of 33%.

　　Egg prices have risen to varying degrees in various regions. Zhengzhou City Development and Reform Commission announced on July 30 that the price of eggs in Zhengzhou has risen rapidly recently. "On July 30, the highest price of eggs in the Zhengzhou retail market was 5 yuan per catty, and the average market price was 4.73 yuan, an increase of 21.9% from last week and a 44.2% increase from the beginning of the month. The market price of eggs was 4.4 yuan per catty, an increase of 29.4 from last week. %, up 69.9% from the beginning of the month."

　　However, compared with the same period last year, the price of eggs is not expensive. Although it rose 4.0% month-on-month in July, it still fell 16.6% compared to the same period last year, an increase of 0.8 percentage points. Monitoring data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs also showed that in July, the average wholesale egg price was 6.84 yuan/kg, an increase of 6.7% month-on-month, but a decrease of 26.1% year-on-year.

　　Regarding price increases, the Department of Market and Information Technology of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs stated that egg prices will also increase during the same period in previous years, but the increase has not been so large. At present, there is no shortage of market eggs in the market, or large purchases such as food processing companies have reached a certain level. Increased the price increase of eggs.

　　Lian Ping believes that the recent rebound in egg prices is related to demand recovery on the one hand, and also affected by heavy rains and floods in the south. In particular, the fragile nature of eggs has affected transportation and supply. Both factors have jointly promoted a periodical rebound in egg prices.

　　In addition, rising egg prices also contribute to rising costs. Zhengzhou City Development and Reform Commission pointed out that feed prices have risen. The current price of corn is 1.2 yuan per catty, up 26.3% year-on-year; the price of bran is 0.95 yuan per catty, up 63.8% year-on-year.

　　Judging from the recent market situation, the price of eggs is still rising. According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, from July 27th to August 2nd, the weekly average price of eggs in the wholesale market was 8.18 yuan per kilogram, an increase of 14.7% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 12.3%.

　　Analyzing the future trend, the Department of Market and Information Technology of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs believes that from the price trend in previous years, there is still room for increase in egg prices in the later period.

　　Lian Ping believes that the rising trend of egg prices may not continue. Compared with the pork cycle, the egg cycle is much shorter, and the obvious price increase will gradually stabilize after 1-2 months.

　　Beijing News reporter Jiang Huizi