Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client, August 6 (Zhang Yanzheng) In the past month, many consumers have found that the price of eggs has quietly risen. According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, on August 5, the average price of eggs in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 8.65 yuan/kg, while the average price of eggs was 6.26 yuan/kg on July 7. In less than a month, the price of eggs rose by 38.18%.
In the secondary market, chicken-raising concept stocks have been sluggish for half a year during the epidemic, and now there are signs of "recovery". Wind data shows that as of the close of August 5, the chicken industry index was 1297.99. Compared with July 1, the chicken industry index has risen by 132.95, a cumulative increase of 11.41%. Since July, many chicken-raising concept stocks such as Minhe, Yisheng, and Xiantan have risen to varying degrees.
Photo by Zhang Yanzheng, China-Singapore Jingwei, the price of eggs in a supermarket in Beijing on August 5
Egg prices soared by nearly 40% in less than a month
"The price of eggs has increased significantly recently, and the daily quotations are different. In early July, the retail price of eggs was about 2 yuan per catty, and it rose to more than 4 yuan in less than August. Today (August 5), eggs The retail price is 4.25 yuan per catty.” Ms. Li from Jiaozuo, Henan said, in the local supermarket discount WeChat group, sales staff will announce the egg price of the day in the group every day.
In the screenshot of the egg price announcement information provided by Ms. Li, a reporter from China-Singapore Jingwei noted that on July 3, the local retail price of eggs was 2.85 yuan per catty, and on July 5, the market price of eggs was 2.95 yuan per catty. In the following days, the price of eggs rose by 0.2 yuan to 0.4 yuan per day. On July 24, the market price of eggs rose to 4 yuan per catty. In addition, egg agricultural products such as firewood eggs and quail eggs also rose simultaneously.
Source of egg prices announced by a supermarket salesperson: Photo courtesy of respondents
According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, egg prices hovered below 7 yuan/kg most of the time from early March to late July this year, which was significantly lower than the level at the beginning of the year and the same period in previous years, but after a recent period of rebound, it is close to the high at the beginning of the year. On August 5, the average price of eggs in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 8.65 yuan/kg (4.325 yuan/kg), and the average price of eggs was 6.26 yuan/kg (3.125 yuan/kg) on July 7. In less than a month, The price of eggs rose by 38.18%.
Regarding the reasons for this round of egg price increases, the Department of Market and Information Technology of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs stated in the domestic and foreign agricultural product market dynamics released on August 3 that the market reflects the recent rapid increase in egg prices. The egg prices will also increase in the same period in previous years, but the increase is Not so big, the current market for egg sales is not in short supply, or bulk purchases such as food processing companies have expanded the increase in egg prices to a certain extent. From the price trend in previous years, there is still room for increase in egg prices in the later period.
The Central Plains Futures Research Institute believes that the market supply and demand shifted in July, and the original oversupply began to turn into a phased tight supply and demand. The supply side due to the shortage of stocks in February and March led to a decrease in the supply of laying hens in July and August. , Superimposed on the high temperature weather, the egg production rate dropped, the elimination was concentrated around the Dragon Boat Festival, and the overall market supply decreased; the demand side was more of a boost from the substitution effect, and the general demand was relatively stable. The Mid-Autumn Festival stocking was slightly boosted, mainly pork Prices have risen, and the reduction in aquatic product consumption has been passed on to egg consumption, and the overall boost has been obvious.
Is the concept of chicken stocks on fire?
The China Investment Futures report shows that since the fourth quarter of 2019, due to the oversupply of the domestic egg market, domestic egg spot and egg prices have continued to fall. After the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the demand for eggs has plummeted and the price of eggs has fallen below the cost line. Farmers once fell into a serious state of loss.
According to the financial report data for the first half of 2020, during the reporting period, Minhe shares net profit was 232 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 73.26%; Yisheng shares expected net profit to be 2-205 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 77.86%-77.31%; Xiantan shares net profit The profit was 279 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 30.82%; the net profit of Shengnong Development was about 1.332 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.4%.
As the market picks up, chicken-raising concept stocks have been in a downturn during the epidemic for half a year, and now there are signs of "recovery". Wind data shows that as of the close of August 5, Huaying Agriculture topped the list with a growth rate of 4.68%, Hefeng Animal Husbandry rose 4.05%, and Zhenjing shares rose 3.07%. In addition, Xiantan shares, Lihua shares, and Xiangjia shares all rose more than 1%. In addition, compared with the beginning of July, Minhe shares have risen by 5.5%, quoting 23.76 yuan per share; Yisheng shares have risen by 2.4%, quoting 16.1 yuan per share.
It is worth noting that the recent surge in egg prices has also attracted investors' attention to listed chicken companies. On the Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange Interactive Exchange, some investors asked whether Yisheng shares and its subsidiaries would sell eggs, and some investors asked about the egg production capacity of Hefeng Animal Husbandry.
Regarding whether the increase in egg prices will have an impact on the company’s performance, on August 5, Minhe shares replied to investors on the interactive platform, “The company’s main products are commodity replacement chicken fry and chicken, and some of them are not suitable for incubating eggs for external sales ( The number is very small), and the increase in egg prices will not have a significant impact on the company’s performance."
On August 4, Xiantan shares replied to investors that “Xiantan shares’ main business is parent-generation broiler breeder breeding, chick hatching, feed production, commercial broiler broiler breeding and slaughter, and chicken product processing and sales. The company’s main products It is a commercial substitute for broiler and chicken products, among which chicken products are mainly sold in the form of divided frozen chicken products, chilled chicken products and prepared foods."
Source: Screenshot of the interactive platform of Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange
Zhongrong Huixin Futures said that in recent months, affected by the continuous rise in the meat and poultry market, farmers in the market outlook may gradually increase their enthusiasm for elimination. The demand side is generally recovering, and the demand of egg traders may have a relatively large increase. And the spot price is low, speculative demand has a certain rise.
In an interview with Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client, China Food Industry Analyst Zhu Danpeng said that the recent sharp increase in egg prices was mainly due to the imbalance between supply and demand. From the perspective of production, this year’s epidemic has superimposed the impact of floods, and the country’s egg production has fallen sharply year-on-year. With seasonal changes, egg demand in the third quarter has continued to increase. With limited supply at the production end and strong demand at the consumer end, under the regulation of the market, egg prices have seen a short-term rise.
"The chicken industry has a short breeding cycle and low entry barriers, and the price of eggs has a tendency to push up in the short term. From the perspective of the secondary market, chicken stocks will not be driven up like pork stocks last year. As the impact of the floods diminishes, the egg cycle will gradually return to normal." Zhu Danpeng said. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)
All rights reserved by Sino-Singapore Jingwei. Without written authorization, no unit or individual may reprint, extract or use in other ways.