The Purchasing Managers Index has been on the rise and fall for five consecutive months
Manufacturing fully recovered
Drawing: Zhang Danfeng
Beijing, August 2 (Reporter Du Haitao) The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing and the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics recently announced that China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 51.1% in July, an increase of 0.2 points from the previous month percentage point. As of July, the manufacturing PMI has been operating at more than 50% for five consecutive months, especially the index rebounded to more than 51% in July, indicating that the economy is picking up faster.
Specifically, in July, among 21 manufacturing industries, the purchasing manager index of 17 industries was higher than 50%, and 13 industries increased from the previous month. The purchasing manager index of large enterprises has remained above 50% for five consecutive months, and that of medium-sized enterprises has remained above 50% for two consecutive months. Although the current rebound momentum of small enterprises has slowed down, production activities are relatively stable.
"The manufacturing purchasing manager index continued to increase in July, indicating that China's economy continues to maintain a rebound trend." Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Development Research Center of the State Council, believes that from the perspective of the classification index, both the production and supply indicators have maintained a rebounding trend, indicating the recovery of the manufacturing industry. The recovery is comprehensive, and the production operation cycle is smooth and tends to accelerate. At present, we must further do a good job in expanding domestic demand, effectively activate and release the investment and consumption potential of the super-large domestic market, and promote the recovery of China's economy to a more stable and solid momentum.
Import and export continue to maintain the momentum of recovery. In July, under a complex external environment, my country's imports and exports continued to maintain a momentum of recovery. The new export order index was 48.4%, an increase of 5.8 percentage points from the previous month, and it has risen for three consecutive months. The import index was 49.1%, an increase of 2.1 percentage points from the previous month, a new high this year.
The consumer goods and new kinetic energy industries grew rapidly. In July, the consumer goods industry accelerated its recovery. The PMI of the consumer goods industry was 51.6%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, and it was higher than the overall manufacturing industry for four consecutive months. Both the production index and the new order index increased. New momentum has also continued to grow rapidly, and the development of domestic technology has accelerated. The PMI of the high-tech industry increased by 0.2 percentage point from the previous month to 51.3%, of which the new order index rose by 0.5 percentage point to 52.5%. The PMI of the equipment manufacturing industry is 51.8%, which is higher than the overall manufacturing industry. The production index remains at a relatively high level of 55.8%.
Wen Tao, an analyst at China Logistics Information Center, said that in July, the new order index was 51.7%, staying above 50%, an increase from the previous month, but from the perspective of the index increase and the company’s response, the new order index was lower than the production The index is 2.3 percentage points, "Demand recovery is weaker than supply, which is the primary problem facing enterprises."
According to the data released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing and the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s non-manufacturing business activity index in July was 54.2%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, but it remained stable at 54 for two consecutive months. % Above, a slight increase of 0.5% over the same period last year.
In July, non-manufacturing online services continued to be active, and new momentum developed strongly. The postal business activity index and the new order index increased significantly from the previous month, both exceeding 60%; the business activity index of the telecommunications-related service industry continued to operate at more than 60% for 4 months, and the month-on-month increase was also more obvious. The business activity index of the accommodation industry and the catering industry remained at a relatively high level of over 57%, a significant increase from the previous month and better than the same period last year.
"The non-manufacturing sector maintains a steady and rapid growth, and corporate expectations remain optimistic, which is conducive to continued economic recovery in the second half of the year," said Wu Wei, an analyst at China Logistics Information Center. It is worth noting that due to factors such as floods in the south, the new order index for wholesale and road transportation industries dropped significantly in July. In the long run, we should continue to tap the potential of domestic demand, stimulate demand growth momentum, and further enhance the stability of economic recovery.
"People's Daily" (August 03, 2020 version 10)