Accelerate the formation of a new development pattern (new economic orientation·how to do work in the second half of the year)
The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on July 30 to analyze and study the current economic situation and plan economic work in the second half of the year.
The meeting pointed out that the current economic situation is still complicated and severe, with great instability and uncertainty. Many of the problems we encounter are medium- and long-term. We must understand from the perspective of protracted warfare, and accelerate the formation of a domestic and international cycle. The new development pattern of dual-cycle mutual promotion, establish a medium and long-term coordination mechanism for epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, adhere to the strategic direction of structural adjustment, rely more on technological innovation, improve the cross-cycle design and adjustment of macro-control, and achieve stable growth and prevention Long-term risk balance.
Why do we say that many of the problems we encounter are medium and long-term? How to understand and accelerate the formation of a new development pattern with the domestic cycle as the main body and the domestic and international double cycles mutually promoting each other? How to achieve a long-term balance between stable growth and risk prevention? Around these important judgments and decision-making arrangements, the reporter interviewed relevant experts.
1 Why do we say that many of the problems we encounter are medium and long-term?
"At the important historical node of the first centenary goal that is about to come to a successful conclusion and the '14th Five-Year Plan' is about to begin, the meeting made strategic judgments that take into account short-term implementation, medium-term planning, and long-term layout, which is of great significance to China's economic and social development. "Said Liu Yuanchun, vice president of Renmin University of China.
At present and in the future, my country's development is still in a period of strategic opportunities, but there are new developments and changes in opportunities and challenges.
From the perspective of the external environment, overseas epidemics are spreading rapidly, superimposed economic globalization has encountered a countercurrent, and protectionism and unilateralism prevail in some countries. The latest forecasts of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank for this year’s global economic growth rate dropped by 4.9% and 5.2% respectively, making it the worst economic recession since World War II. The "World Investment Report 2020" issued by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development predicts that global foreign direct investment (FDI) will fall by nearly 40% year-on-year this year, which also makes the figure below $1 trillion for the first time since 2005.
From the perspective of internal operations, China’s economy is in a critical period of transforming development mode, optimizing economic structure, and transforming growth momentum. The prospects for economic development are improving, but it is also facing the intertwining of structural, institutional, and cyclical issues. Difficulties and challenges, coupled with the impact of the epidemic, are currently facing greater pressure on China's economic operations.
"In the first half of the year, the economic growth rate, consumption growth rate, investment growth rate and other major indicators are still in the falling range, and the losses from the impact of the epidemic have not yet been fully compensated, and hard work is needed to push the economy back to normal levels." said Liu Aihua, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics As the world economy is struggling to restart, the recovery of domestic demand is still subject to certain constraints, and the pressure on stabilizing enterprises and ensuring employment is still high, so we must stick to the bottom line thinking.
From the perspective of development opportunities, a new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation is in the ascendant, and it is reconstructing the global innovation landscape and reshaping the global economic structure. Whoever holds the bull nose of technological innovation will be able to take the lead, gain an advantage, and firmly control the initiative of competition and development in his own hands.
However, experts believe that although the current economic situation is still complex and severe, external shocks such as the epidemic will not change the basic trend of my country's long-term economic improvement, and my country's economic resilience remains strong. As the situation of epidemic prevention and control continues to improve, and the resumption of work, production, and business resumes in an orderly manner, China’s economic growth in the second quarter was significantly better than expected, and economic development showed a steady improvement. Both epidemic prevention and control and economic recovery are progressing. At the forefront of the world.
"The most difficult period has passed. Only by working hard to help market players recognize and adapt to these new changes can the positive factors for economic stabilization and recovery continue to increase." said Yang Guangpu, an associate researcher at the Macroeconomic Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council. To understand the current economic situation objectively and long-term, enhance the awareness of opportunities and risks, and be good at grasping and using the law of development, can we cultivate new opportunities in the crisis and open new opportunities in the changing situation.
2 How to understand and accelerate the formation of a new development pattern?
From this year’s National Two Sessions and the recent Entrepreneur Forum, “Gradually form a new development pattern with the domestic cycle as the main body and the domestic and international dual cycles mutually promoting each other”, to the Central Political Bureau meeting pointed out that “accelerate the formation of a domestic cycle as the main body and domestic What are the considerations based on the new development pattern of international dual-cycle mutual promotion? Why is it proposed to "take the domestic cycle as the main body"? How to achieve "double cycle mutual promotion"?
In the short term, the new pattern will help alleviate the impact of the epidemic on enterprises. The overseas epidemic continues to spread, and international trade and investment have shrunk significantly. This external environment may be difficult to change in the short term and will continue to suppress market demand.
"Accelerating the formation of a new development pattern dominated by the domestic cycle is to expand domestic demand as soon as possible to maintain the momentum of resumption of work and production, and to avoid stretching the front of economic recovery too long." Yang Guangpu said.
In the long run, the new pattern is conducive to activating the strong endogenous driving force for high-quality development. Speed up the construction of a complete domestic demand system, form more new growth points and growth poles, and strive to open up production, distribution, circulation, and consumption links, and smooth the domestic cycle, which is conducive to the continuous upgrade of domestic market demand and the continuous improvement of supply capacity. At the same time, it promotes the realization of dynamic equilibrium of supply and demand at a higher level and a higher level, and provides sustainable development momentum for the domestic circulation.
Guo Liyan, a researcher at the Market and Price Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Macroeconomics, believes that having the advantage of super-large market scale is an important advantage and key support for my country's participation in reshaping the global competitive landscape. Only by transforming the huge market potential into actual demand and accelerating the construction of a modern economic system can the attractiveness and influence of the domestic market be continuously enhanced.
"'Big' does not mean'strong', but'big' is the basis of'strong'. In the current external environment of rising protectionism, global economic downturn, and shrinking global market, only the resource endowment advantage of the'big market' can be transformed For the international competitive advantage of a'strong market', it is possible to increase the impetus for China's economic development by prospering the domestic economy and smoothing the domestic cycle." Guo Liyan said.
Dialectically, with the domestic cycle as the main body, it is by no means a closed-door operation. The new pattern is to make the domestic market and the international market better connect by leveraging the potential of domestic demand, and to make better use of the two international and domestic markets and two resources to achieve more robust and sustainable development.
"In the future, what China will build is not a simple and unconditional open system, but also a more diverse, balanced, safe, and efficient open system. Such a brand-new system must be built on a solid foundation, that is, we Efficient domestic circulation." Liu Yuanchun said.
In Guo Liyan's view, the internal circulation is "mainly" and the internal and external circulations are "mutual promotion", which is a dialectical unity relationship. "We regard the increasingly powerful domestic market as a strategic resource, as the confidence and support for advancing a higher level of opening up. At the same time, by advancing a higher level of opening up, promoting the development of internal and external markets and the integration of rules, it will also be further strengthened. The important guarantee of the domestic market will help expand the space for China to allocate resources on a global scale."
3 How to achieve a long-term balance between stable growth and risk prevention?
The basic characteristics of our country's economic potential, strong resilience, large room for maneuver, and many policy tools have not changed. The most important thing is to concentrate our efforts on our own affairs.
——Writing an overall planning article and establishing a coordination mechanism to ensure that the prevention and control of the epidemic is compatible with economic and social development.
Through the joint efforts of the whole country, my country's epidemic prevention and control has achieved major strategic results in a relatively short period of time, and the normal economic and social order is gradually restored, laying a solid foundation for continued recovery in the second half of the year. However, as the global epidemic continues to spread and spread, my country's pressure for "anti-import from outside and rebound from inside" continues.
"The meeting proposed that the establishment of a medium- and long-term coordination mechanism for epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development has sent a positive signal to the market and will stabilize expectations." Yang Guangpu analyzed that in the first half of the year, private investment fell by 7.3% year-on-year, a decline from January to May. Narrow by 2.3 percentage points, but still lower than the national fixed asset investment growth rate of 4.2 percentage points. "The design of the medium- and long-term coordination mechanism will continue to improve precise prevention and control measures to minimize the impact of the epidemic on the production and operation of enterprises."
——Using reform methods and relying on technological innovation to accelerate the conversion of new and old momentum.
In the first half of this year, China's high-tech industry investment increased by 6.3% year-on-year, e-commerce service industry investment increased by 32%, and technological achievement transformation service industry investment increased by 21.8%...More and more enterprises have turned crises into opportunities to make up for shortcomings and strengths. The project not only laid the foundation for the sustained economic recovery, but also helped the continuous optimization of the economic structure, so that the high-quality development was rapidly stabilized.
"While the epidemic has impacted some industries and companies, it has also forced many companies to take the initiative to change and accelerate their transformation and upgrading. Adhering to the strategic direction of structural adjustment and relying more on technological innovation, it is possible to accelerate the conversion of new and old momentum." Yang Guangpu Say.
——Maintain strategic determination, take into consideration the immediate and long-term, and achieve a long-term balance of stable growth and risk prevention.
Issuing 1 trillion yuan of anti-epidemic special treasury bonds, promoting the financial system to reasonably transfer 1.5 trillion yuan in profits to enterprises, and implementing over 1 trillion tax cuts and fees... Since the outbreak of the epidemic, the Party Central Committee has taken a timely and decisive action to help enterprises, The hedging policy of stabilizing employment and expanding domestic demand has formed a strong support for stabilizing the economic fundamentals.
Wen Bin, chief researcher of Minsheng Bank, believes that in response to the current external uncertainties and increased complexity, the meeting proposed to improve the cross-cycle design and adjustment of macro-control, and to consider mid- and long-term planning and economic cycles, economic recovery and high-quality development will help Reduce the spillover of macroeconomic policies to keep the overall economic operation stable.
"The exposure of risks is often lagging. As the economy recovers steadily, macroeconomic control should be more prudent. For example, the fiscal policy proposed at the meeting should pay more attention to practical results, and the monetary policy should maintain a reasonable growth in the money supply and the scale of social financing. It is conducive to achieving a long-term balance between stable growth and risk prevention." Liu Yuanchun said.
Our reporter Lu Yanan and Li Xinping