INTERVIEW
When assessing the economic devastation of the coronavirus pandemic, INSEE evokes a drop of 13.8% of GDP for the second quarter of 2020, which would represent the largest decline since the post-war period. The loss of business activity and the drop in household consumption are the main reasons, according to the professor of economics at the University of Aix Marseille, Gilbert Cette. Guest from Europe 1 on Sunday, he detailed the key factors of the recovery. “The strength of the rebound in France, as in other countries, will depend on the mobilization by households of accumulated savings,” he said.
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80 billion euros saved
During confinement, French households were slowed down in their consumption. They would have accumulated more than 80 billion euros, "an absolutely considerable savings" says the professor of economics who even estimates this amount at 100 billion "towards the end of the year". According to his reasoning, the economic rebound will be “strong” and “important” if these savings are used efficiently and quickly. "If [households] mobilize it with caution, the rebound will be more gradual."
It now remains to meet the conditions to restore confidence in the French and encourage them to consume. At the microphone of Europe 1, Gilbert Cette was optimistic. The fear of unemployment or an increase in taxes are the main obstacles to the use of savings. But the recent measures in favor of partial unemployment as well as the announcement of a stimulus plan could reassure households.
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Furthermore, the introduction of new health measures should not be neglected. "We are approaching the marketing of a vaccine, [...] a solution which would definitively eliminate the risk of a second wave."