April-June GDP Is record hit in new Corona? Survey company forecast 11:02 on August 1
Preliminary figures for GDP = Gross Domestic Product from April to June will be announced on 17th of this month. A private-sector research company predicts that the spread of the new coronavirus will exceed 20% on an annualized basis, a record drop exceeding the Lehman shock.
The forecast of GDP growth rate from April to June, compiled by 10 companies including private research companies, is minus 5.9% compared to the previous 3 months in the real excluding price fluctuations. It was 8.1%.
If this is converted into the annual rate when it continues for one year, it will be minus 21.7% to minus 28.7%. After the Lehman shock, the annual decline is expected to be more than minus 17.8% from January to March 2009, the largest decline since 1980, when comparisons are possible.
Regarding the factors, each company cites the fact that private consumption dropped significantly due to the effect of refraining from going out due to the spread of the new coronavirus infection, and that the export of automobiles to Europe and the U.S. decreased significantly due to the effect of lockdown.
With the spread of the infection, the GDP from April to June has fallen to a historic drop in the US, Germany, France, and other euro area countries, but it seems that Japan will also be hit hard. ..
In Japan, personal consumption has gradually recovered and corporate production activities have resumed, but the number of infected people is increasing again at the moment, and uncertainty about the future is growing.