- Crisis: AIReF advances that the economy collapsed 20% in the second quarter
- EPA: Job Destruction Caused by Coronavirus and Economic Hibernation Beats All Records
Different national and international organizations have warned on numerous occasions that in a context in which the coronavirus would hit the population again with force, the Spanish economy would suffer especially. So much so, that the collapse of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) could even go above 14% and the unemployment figure would exceed 20% already this year . And that is precisely the negative scenario that threatens to unleash the numerous outbreaks that are taking place in various parts of Spain.
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development ( OECD ) was very clear when it stated that in this context of outbreaks, Spain would be the country that would suffer the most from all those who make up this organization, given the significant economic weight of activities such as tourism and hostelry. According to their estimates, the collapse in that case would be 14.4% and unemployment would reach 20.1%.
The Bank of Spain also carried out a similar exercise. Its central forecasts were a scenario of early and gradual recovery and in which, according to the general director of the General Directorate of Economy and Statistics, Óscar Arce, possible local outbreaks were taken into account. In that case, the fall in GDP could be around 12% and unemployment could be close to 20%.
However, he carried out a third projection, which he called the risk scenario and in which he started from " a significant resurgence of infection , which would require the reintroduction of social distancing measures, with a significant impact on economic activity." And in this context, the collapse would be 15% and unemployment would be 23%.
Furthermore, both the body led by the Mexican Ángel Gurría and the BdE warn that in a context of outbreaks the recovery in 2021 would be weaker and the unemployment figures higher . The supervisor, for example, anticipates an unemployment rate of almost 25% in the worst case, while the OECD anticipates a rebound in GDP of just 5%.
All these figures - and also those of intermediate scenarios - are very far from the official forecasts that the Government transferred to Brussels. In the Stability Program, the Executive of Pedro Sánchez predicted a drop in GDP of less than 10% for this year and an unemployment rate that would not reach 20%, data that seems too positive and that seem to have been totally outdated even before to take into account the possible effect of new sprouts.
Just yesterday, the Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) estimated that GDP fell 20% during the second quarter of the year. This is the figure provided by the MIPred model for monitoring the economy, with which the body monitors GDP in real time and after including the alarming employment data known on Tuesday.
Until now, this model estimated that the fall in the second quarter would be around 13%, but the abrupt drop in employment in more than a million jobs that the Labor Force Survey (EPA) showed has unleashed a notable increase in up to seven points. The figure, evidently, is the highest in history and was known just two days before the National Statistics Institute (INE) published next Friday the official national accounting data for the same second quarter.
The INE data will pale the already spectacular fall of 5.2% that was registered in the first quarter. That period was only affected in its last 15 days by the confinement of the population, while the one related to April, May and June will collect the economic consequences of the state of alarm with all its harshness.
According to the criteria of The Trust ProjectKnow more
- Covid 19
EconomyBarcelona begins the coronavirus summer with only 37 hotels open and 10% of seats occupied
Reconstruction Economists (VIII) J. Enrique Devesa: "We are going to be forced to cut pensions and salaries of officials"
According to the Bank of SpainThe big losers of the Covid-19 economic crisis: women and young people under 35
See links of interest
- Last News
- English translator
- Work calendar
- Daily horoscope
- Santander League Ranking
- League calendar
- TV Movies
- Cut notes 2019