Analyze the economic situation with a comprehensive, dialectical and long-term perspective
The sudden new crown pneumonia epidemic has had a relatively large impact on my country's economic development and social life. In the first quarter, GDP fell by 6.8% year-on-year. Based on the spread of the international epidemic and the current performance of the global economy, the International Monetary Fund has drastically lowered its global economic growth expectations. The global economy is expected to drop by 3% this year, which will also have an adverse impact on the Chinese economy. General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out when attending the Economic Committee Joint Meeting of the Third Session of the 13th CPPCC National Committee on May 23 this year that we must persist in analyzing the current economic situation with a comprehensive, dialectical, and long-term perspective, and strive to cultivate new opportunities in the crisis. To open a new game amidst the changes, give full play to China's potential and role as the world's largest market. Difficulties are temporary, and there is no end to development. As long as in accordance with the requirements of General Secretary Xi Jinping, persist in looking at the current difficulties, risks, and challenges with a comprehensive, dialectical and long-term perspective, and actively guide the whole society, especially various market players, to increase confidence, and consolidate China’s economic stability and long-term improvement. China’s development is bound to be full of hope.
What are the main economic difficulties currently facing our country?
The latest statistical results of the National Bureau of Statistics show that after China has achieved major phased results in the prevention and control of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, some positive signs have emerged in the economic situation. The economy has stabilized and improved, and the long-term improvement trend has not changed, but the economic difficulties are also Can not be ignored. Specifically: Industrial production continued to rebound, and equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing grew rapidly. From January to May, the national industrial added value above designated size fell by 2.8% year-on-year, and the rate of decline narrowed 2.1 percentage points from January to April. In May, the national industrial added value above designated size increased by 4.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.5% faster than in April. The growth rate of the service industry production index has turned from negative to positive, and the modern service industry is growing well. From January to May, the service industry production index fell by 7.7% year-on-year, and the rate of decline narrowed by 2.2 percentage points from January to April. In May, the national service industry production index increased by 1% year-on-year. Market sales are gradually picking up, and consumption upgrades and online retailing continue to improve. From January to May, the total retail sales of consumer goods was 13,873 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.5%, and the rate of decline narrowed by 2.7 percentage points from January to April. The decline in fixed asset investment has significantly narrowed, and the growth rate of investment in high-tech industries and social sectors has turned from negative to positive. From January to May, the national investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) was 19,999.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.3%, and the rate of decline narrowed by 4 percentage points from January to April. The rise in consumer prices fell, and the fall in factory prices for industrial producers expanded. From January to May, the national consumer prices rose by 4.1% year-on-year. In May, the national consumer prices rose by 2.4% year-on-year, 0.9 percentage points lower than in April. The surveyed unemployment rate in urban areas is generally stable, and new jobs have decreased slightly. In May, the nationwide surveyed unemployment rate in urban areas was 5.9%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from April. Exports of goods have maintained growth and the trade surplus has expanded. From January to May, the total value of imports and exports of goods was 1,15381 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.9%. In May, the trade surplus was 442.7 billion yuan, an increase of 124.6 billion yuan from April. Financial credit has grown rapidly, and market expectations are generally stable. At the end of May, the stock of social financing was 268 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.5%, of which the balance of RMB loans to the real economy was 162 trillion yuan, an increase of 13.3%.
Looking at the above indicators, although my country’s economic indicators have improved, generally speaking, the problems of production, consumption, investment, import and export, and employment are still very serious. From January to May of 2020, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size dropped by 19.3% year-on-year. In early June 2020, compared with the end of May, the market prices of important means of production in the circulation field have undergone new changes. The prices of 32 products have risen. Kind of decline, 4 kinds of flat, cost pressure will cause further difficulties for business operations. Although China’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index, non-manufacturing business activity index, and comprehensive PMI output index were 50.9%, 54.4%, and 54.2% in June 2020, all higher than the previous month, showing growth resilience, but overall There are still many difficulties in the economic operation. Therefore, China’s current major economic difficulties are as pointed out in the “Government Work Report” adopted by the Third Session of the 13th National People’s Congress. Under the impact of the global epidemic, the world economy has suffered a severe recession, the circulation of the industrial chain and the supply chain has been blocked, and international trade and investment have shrunk. , The bulk commodity market is turbulent. Domestic consumption, investment, and exports have declined, and employment pressure has increased significantly. Enterprises, especially private enterprises, small and medium-sized enterprises have become more difficult, financial and other fields have accumulated risks, and grassroots fiscal revenue and expenditure conflicts have intensified.
How to resolve and deal with the current economic difficulties?
The Politburo meeting held on April 17, 2020 emphasized that the current challenges facing economic development are unprecedented. It is necessary to fully estimate the difficulties, risks and uncertainties, effectively increase the sense of urgency, and grasp all tasks for economic and social development. Fundamentally speaking, we must adhere to the general tone of the work of seeking progress while maintaining stability and firmly grasp the initiative in development.
Soberly understand the basic trend of my country's economic development. From the statistical data, the new crown pneumonia epidemic has caused the global economy to press the "pause button." However, under the strong leadership of the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at the core, we quickly contained the spread of the epidemic, quickly resumed production, and minimized the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic. On the whole, the basic trend of my country's economic stability and long-term improvement remains unchanged. This is the basis for my country to formulate policies to deal with difficulties.
Firm reform and development goals are unwavering. 2020 is an important node for comprehensively deepening reforms. It is necessary to ensure that decisive results are achieved in important areas and key links proposed by the Third Plenary Session of the Eighteenth Central Committee of the Party, and to implement the reforms deployed by the Fourth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee. Make a good start and take a good step. At the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee on July 31, 2018, in response to the intensified Sino-US trade friction, the external environment has undergone significant changes, and the economic operation has been stable but with changes and worries. Finance, stable foreign trade, stable foreign investment, stable investment, stable expected work" and regard the "six stability" as the basic requirement for realizing China's economic stability. In response to the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the central government proposed in April 2020 to intensify the “six stability” work to ensure employment, basic people’s livelihood, market players, food and energy security, industrial chain supply chain stability, and grassroots protection. Operation, the "six guarantees" are not only the concrete implementation of the "six stability" work, but also the basic task of ensuring the basic stability of economic development.
Fully understand the advantages and resilience of my country's economic development. my country's economy has the basic characteristics of sufficient potential, strong resilience, large room for maneuver, and many policy tools. China has the world's most complete and largest industrial system, strong production capacity, and complete supporting capabilities. It has more than 100 million market players and more than 170 million people with higher education or various professional skills, including more than 400 million A large-scale domestic demand market formed by 1.4 billion people including middle-income groups. It is in the stage of rapid development of new industrialization, informatization, urbanization, and agricultural modernization, and the investment demand potential is huge. Our institutional advantages are conducive to stimulating vitality and providing long-term guarantee for achieving long-term development. On April 27, 2020, General Secretary Xi Jinping emphasized at the thirteenth meeting of the Central Committee for Comprehensively Deepening Reform: The more severe and complex the development environment, the more it is necessary to unswervingly deepen reforms, improve various systems, improve governance systems, and promote systems Better transformation and integration of construction and governance efficiency, and good use of institutional advantages to deal with risks and challenges. The public ownership as the main body, the common development of multiple ownership economies, the distribution according to work as the main body, the coexistence of multiple distribution methods, and the socialist market economic system and other socialist basic economic systems are not only conducive to stimulating the vitality of various market entities, liberating and developing social productivity , But also conducive to promoting the organic unity of efficiency and fairness, and continuously achieving common prosperity. Reform is conducive to my country's continuous adjustment of policies in accordance with the stages of development, and provides sufficient policy tools and fundamental motivation for achieving long-term development. Since the Third Plenary Session of the Eighteenth Central Committee adopted the "Decisions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Several Major Issues of Comprehensively Deepening Reform", various reform measures have been rolled out in an all-round way, greatly expanding the development space of all social subjects; "Decision of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Several Major Issues Concerning Upholding and Improving the Socialist System with Chinese Characteristics, Promoting the Modernization of National Governance System and Governance Capability" Operating an effective institutional system; in May this year, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council passed the "Opinions on Accelerating the Improvement of the Socialist Market Economic System in the New Era", which is to promote economic system reform from a higher starting point, higher level, and higher goals And other major measures for system reform in various aspects.
"One point for deployment, nine points for implementation." The road map for my country's economic and social development has been fully planned in the report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. Deepening reform and opening up has also been continuously improved and advanced since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. Temporary difficulties cannot affect the continued advancement of the overall goal. General Secretary Xi Jinping emphasized to clarify the strategic direction of supply-side structural reforms, consolidate the basic trend of steady and long-term improvement in China’s economy, consolidate the fundamental position of agriculture, implement the "six stability" and "six guarantees" tasks, and ensure various The decision-making and deployment take root to ensure the accomplishment of the decisive victory in building a moderately prosperous society in all respects, the decisive battle against poverty, and the promotion of China’s economy to ride the wind and waves, and move forward with stability. To accomplish this goal, while overcoming temporary difficulties, it is necessary to be aggressive, actively implement the established guidelines and policies, and constantly improve and optimize various policies and measures and implement them in place according to changing conditions. We must not give up food because of choking. We must combine the key theory and the two-point theory to understand my country's economic and social development plan as a whole, and realize the plan in the gradual implementation.
"Turning crisis into opportunity" requires new ideas and new actions
Know from the whole, not the part. "Those who do not seek for the whole world cannot seek a moment; those who do not seek the overall situation cannot seek a domain", it is the relationship between the whole and the part. The spread of overseas epidemics has accelerated, and international economic and trade activities have been severely affected. my country's economic development is facing new challenges. It also brings new opportunities for my country to accelerate technological development and promote industrial optimization and upgrading. In-depth analysis, comprehensive weighing, accurate recognition of change, scientific response, active pursuit of change, and good at capturing and creating opportunities from immediate crises and immediate difficulties. As early as January 2017 at the World Economic Forum in Davos, General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out in his keynote speech: The fundamental problem facing the world economy is insufficient growth momentum. Innovation is the first driving force leading development. Compared with previous industrial revolutions, the fourth industrial revolution unfolded at an exponential and non-linear speed. We must find a way out in innovation. Only the courage to innovate and change can break through the bottleneck of world economic growth and development. We need to innovate in development concepts, go beyond the debate about more fiscal stimulus or more monetary easing, and establish a way of addressing both symptoms and root causes and implementing comprehensive policies. We must innovate policy measures, promote structural reforms, create room for growth and increase stamina. We must innovate growth methods, grasp the opportunities brought by the new round of industrial revolution, digital economy, etc., not only to deal with the challenges brought by climate change, population aging, etc., but also to resolve the employment brought about by informatization and automation. In the process of cultivating new industries, new formats and new models, we should pay attention to creating new employment opportunities, so that people of all countries can regain their confidence and hope. On April 1, 2020, General Secretary Xi Jinping said during an inspection tour in Zhejiang that it is necessary to seize the opportunities given by industrial digitalization and digital industrialization, accelerate the construction of new infrastructure such as 5G networks and data centers, and pay close attention to the deployment of digital economy, life and health, and innovation. Materials and other strategic emerging industries and future industries, vigorously promote technological innovation, strive to expand new growth points, and form new development momentum. In this year’s “Government Work Report”, this concept was implemented as a key support for the “two new and one heavy” construction that not only promotes consumption and benefits the people’s livelihood, but also adjusts the structure to increase stamina, mainly: strengthening new infrastructure construction and developing a new generation of information networks , Expand 5G applications, build charging piles, promote new energy vehicles, stimulate new consumer demand, and help industrial upgrading.
Look at the problem with a developmental vision rather than a rigid understanding. "One yin and one yang means Tao", "Poorness leads to change, change leads to continuity, and generality leads to long-term", these are all viewpoints on the change and development of contradictions. It is not possible to lose confidence because of temporary difficulties and make historical comparisons rigidly. The economic difficulties caused by the new crown pneumonia epidemic are very different from the impact of the US subprime mortgage crisis in 2008. The most important difference is the blockage of the global supply chain. On December 1, 2014, General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out in a speech at a non-party forum held by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China that the key to achieving economic development goals is to maintain stable growth and adjust structural balance, and adhere to macro-policy to be stable and micro-policy to be flexible. , The overall idea of social policy to support the foundation. "Stability" and "liveness" are dialectical ways of thinking to deal with economic difficulties, that is, stability that should be stable, changes that should be made, and continuous development of new fields and new development. According to the current domestic and international conditions and China’s future development, General Secretary Xi Jinping proposed to meet domestic demand as the starting point and goal of development, accelerate the construction of a complete domestic demand system, vigorously promote technological innovation and other innovations, and accelerate the advancement of the digital economy , Intelligent manufacturing, life and health, new materials and other strategic emerging industries, to form more new growth points, growth poles, and strive to open up production, distribution, circulation, and consumption links, and gradually form a domestic cycle as the main body, domestic and international double The new development pattern that promotes each other cyclically will foster new advantages for China to participate in international cooperation and competition under the new situation. The new development thinking of "mainly taking the domestic big cycle as the main body and promoting the mutual promotion of the domestic and international double cycles" will form a new pattern for my country's future economic and social development.
Make a dynamic transition from unbalanced development to balanced development to achieve coordinated development. General Secretary Xi Jinping has repeatedly emphasized that the uncoordinated development of our country is a long-standing problem, which is prominently manifested in the relationship between regions, urban and rural areas, economy and society, material and spiritual civilization, economic construction and national defense. To this end, we must firmly grasp the overall layout of the cause of socialism with Chinese characteristics, correctly handle the important relations in development, and continuously enhance the integrity of development. Emphasizing that coordinated development is not about egalitarianism, but more attention to fair development opportunities, more attention to the balance of resource allocation, and tapping development potential and enhancing development stamina by making up for shortcomings. On August 26, 2019, at the fifth meeting of the Central Committee of Finance and Economics, General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out that my country's economy has shifted from a stage of rapid growth to a stage of high-quality development, and put forward new requirements for coordinated regional development. We cannot simply require all regions to achieve the same level of economic development, but should follow the path of rational division of labor and optimized development according to the conditions of each region. Therefore, it is necessary to speed up the implementation of the regional development strategy, continue to promote the development of the western region, the comprehensive revitalization of the northeast, the rise of the central region, and the development of the eastern region first, forming a multi-point flowering and multi-head development. Take key economic areas such as the coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, the construction of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, the integrated development of the Yangtze River Delta, and the construction of the Chengdu-Chongqing double-city economic circle as the leader and model. Promote the development of old revolutionary base areas, ethnic areas, border areas, and poverty-stricken areas. A nationwide game of chess has been formed, and a good situation of comprehensive and overall coordination to promote economic and social development.
(Author: Academy of Social Sciences Institute of Economics Professor Zhang Xu)