China News Service, Beijing, July 24 (Xia Bin Jiang Xinya) Deutsche Bank Group announced on the 24th its China Chief Macro Economist Xiong Yi's "China Economic Outlook for the Second Half of 2020" research report. The report predicts that in the second half of this year, the economic performance of different industries in the Chinese economy will show structural differences.
The report believes that in the second half of the year, the growth performance of different industries will show large differences. Several industries such as wholesale and retail, transportation, catering and accommodation, leasing and commercial services will be more severely affected and the recovery will be relatively slow. But at the same time, the growth rate of other industries is expected to reach or exceed 6%.
The report further stated that the new crown epidemic has changed consumer preferences and business models, while the economy is still adapting to these adjustments. Measures to maintain social distancing in various places have brought serious impacts to the service industries that require close contact with people such as hotels, leisure and entertainment, but have accelerated the development of e-commerce and the digital economy. While long-distance travel has decreased, short-distance travel has increased, which in turn boosted the demand for cars. Cars and smartphones help reduce unnecessary social interactions, and spending on these two items is likely to increase. The arrival of the automobile replacement cycle and the popularization of 5G networks will also further boost demand growth in the second half of the year.
The report also pointed out that the producer price index will be supported by government fiscal stimulus and increased global demand, and the epidemic will have an asymmetrical impact on the job market, reducing employment opportunities, especially those with lower requirements for professional skills. Affected by this, consumer price inflation may continue to remain low. (Finish)