China News Agency, Beijing, July 20 (Reporter Pang Wuji) The quoted interest rate (LPR) in the Chinese loan market has remained unchanged for four consecutive months.
The People's Bank of China authorized the National Interbank Interbank Lending Center to release the latest LPR on the 20th. Among them, the 1-year LPR was 3.85% and the LPR over 5 years was 4.65%, all of which remained unchanged. Since April, LPR has been flat for four consecutive months.
Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst at Shell Research Institute, believes that China's economic recovery in the first half of the year exceeded expectations, which indicates that the response measures taken after the epidemic have achieved staged results. At the same time, under the financial easing, prices of assets including land and real estate in core cities rose. Therefore, recent monetary policy has maintained certain restraint, and loan interest rates have remained flat, in line with the principle of being timely and appropriate.
Xu Xiaole predicts that under the pressure of various recent adjustments, the momentum of rapid heating of the real estate market in core cities has weakened, and the market will gradually "fever" in the second half of the year.
Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of E-House Research Institute, believes that LPR, which has remained unchanged for four consecutive months, sends a strong signal: There have been two more obvious interest rate cuts in the first half of the year, and subsequent interest rate cuts will remain restrained. At the same time, from the perspective of current policy orientation, more emphasis is placed on digesting existing interest rate policies.
He believes that from the second half of the year, the loose interest rate environment still exists.
On July 11, a spokesman for the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission pointed out that the current outstanding risks and challenges include a rebound in some market chaos. Some high-risk shadow banks have revived, and some have attempted to make a comeback with new forms and new features. The leverage ratio of enterprises, households and other sectors rose. Some funds flowed into the real estate market illegally, pushing up the asset bubble.
At the same time, since July, Dongguan, Hangzhou, Ningbo, Shenzhen and other places have issued real estate control tightening policies.
Yan Yuejin said that overall, this may mean that the national mortgage interest rate policy in the second half of the year will be guided by easing, but some cities with a lot of housing speculation may face tightening and upward adjustments. (Finish)