The 'no' of the frugal threatens to burst the Summit of Summits

After three days of meetings, endless bilateral meetings, various proposals with numbers on the table and a major exercise in flexibility and contortion , the European Council that was to decide on the Union Budget until 2027 and the Recovery Fund after the pandemic continues stagnant.

Without agreement, with diminishing prospects of achieving it and with a degree of irritation, reproaches and very deep entrenchment. Breaking would be a failure, a sign of division and weakness and a sour message to the world that says that, even in the face of the most serious emergencies imaginable, there is not enough waist to move fast.

But sacrificing the fund for the shape may be an almost worse mistake. "A satisfactory agreement, in line with the Commission proposal, is better than a quicker and less ambitious one," urged ECB President Christine Lagarde yesterday in a message strategically distributed from Frankfurt and read unequivocally in Brussels: no thresholds can be lowered further.

Dynamite bridges

A somewhat simple but fairly accurate summary is that the frugal countries encarnated and dynamited all the bridges, one after another. They present everything in a rational way, like a sudoku, but they are stepping on many calluses. They do not accept the consensus proposals, they continue to maintain that the necessary formula should only include highly conditional loans and have pushed the pressure to the limit.

They say that the agreement is essential and that the Fund is essential to help those most in need. But its red lines, instead of blurring, are painted with permanent markers every two hours.

The Netherlands, Austria, Denmark and Sweden, with the collaboration of Finland (the last three, with social democratic leaders), believe that 450,000 million euros, and 300,000 more in transfers, are too much for a Recovery Plan. And that a budget of 1,074 billion for seven years, too.

They want a much greater discount, in composition and in total. Something "exaggerated" and "unsustainable", according to European and diplomatic sources. President Charles Michel tried to convince them actively and passively, he asked for ideas, but everything that came back was unaffordable for others, including even the formerly orthodox Germany. "The will to compromise will not make us give up the legitimate ambition that we must have," Emmanuel Macron promised.

The police of Europe

On the first day, Dutchman Mark Rutte "irritated" many of his colleagues. He recognized it himself with a point of pride. "The Police of Europe is believed," said the Bulgarian colleague. "Use tactics of the communist dictatorship," added Hungarian Viktor Orban, angry at the position regarding compliance with the rule of law, not the issue of transfers. On Saturday it seemed that the environment was better, and that Michel's proposal, which cut transfers by 50,000 million and tightened the conditionality to receive them, paved the way. Something he did, but not enough. The atmosphere was bad at night and it was repeated on Sunday morning.

The plenary session, which should have started at noon, was delayed over and over again and in fact the 27 did not meet again until dinner, after 19:20. Michel saw no sense in summoning the parties if there was no movement and prospect of something realistic. And meanwhile, the lathe was getting uglier.

"The negotiation continues. On the one hand we are the vast majority of countries, including the largest, such as Germany, France, Spain and Italy, which we defend the institutions and the European project. On the other hand, the so-called frugal," he wrote in a controversial tweet the Italian prime minister.

Well into the afternoon, the figure that began to circulate was that of a Recovery Plan of 700,000 million (instead of 750,000) with a drop in transfers to 350,000 million, exactly half. That would mean giving up 150,000 million euros in transfers, a sacrifice that for most of the partners is excessive.

The same message circulated among the strongest delegations: there are more than 20 reasonably aligned countries, which account for more than 80% of the population and community GDP. And although it is not enough, it should make the stubborn reflect, with the perspective of another night more in sleep peeling.

Cheats

The problem is not even the number, which also, but the feeling that it is not something sincere, but tricks to make the partridge dizzy. The frugal are in no hurry and don't care at all about being in the minority and the hypothetical effects on their reputation. They believe I have said that if the agreement were made in September or October it would be better, because the more economic recovery, the less ambition and sense of urgency there will be. But at the same time they present the fact of remaining at the table before offers that they consider insulting as proof of their commitment.

For the big boys, 400,000 is a more than reasonable limit. It means giving up 20% (in addition to compensatory checks and guarantees of greater conditionality in the approval of reforms). They believe that the offer is generous and that the austere people abuse their position and the patience of their partners, and do not take into account what it will mean in terms of image after everything that has been said and written in recent months.

The South and the greats speak of urgency, of historical moment, of the need for a historical thing like the joint issuance of debt. But the Dutch response is always the same: there is already a fund of up to 240,000 million in the coffers of the Mede, the European stability mechanism, with credits at almost zero prices and without any associated conditionality. And nobody has asked for it. If Spain and Italy have so many needs, why don't they turn? If the answer is political, image, internally, they add: Dutch taxpayers have the same right to be heard. And respected.

According to the criteria of The Trust Project

• Italy
• Europe
• Spain
• Germany
• Austria
• Viktor Orban
• Sweden
• GDP
• France
• Finland
• Christine Lagarde
• Emmanuel Macron
• Denmark

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