In the second half of the year, eating food, eating vegetables and meat is generally guaranteed
——The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs responds to the hot issue of agricultural product prices
Our reporter Qiao Jinliang
In the first half of this year, China's agricultural product market has withstood the test of the New Coronary Pneumonia epidemic. The supply of agricultural products is generally stable and orderly, and the price changes are basically normal. However, some varieties are affected by factors such as the transmission of the international market and the contradiction between domestic supply and demand. . What is the current price situation of major agricultural products? How will it develop in the second half of the year? On July 17, the person in charge of the Market and Information Department of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs was interviewed by a reporter from the Economic Daily.
The person in charge said that at present, China's summer grain production has increased, the area of major grain crops is basically stable, the stock of rice and wheat is sufficient, which is roughly equivalent to the annual consumption of the people of the country, the production capacity of live pigs continues to recover, and the stable production and supply of "vegetable basket" products are solidly promoted. In addition, the supply of most international bulk agricultural products is generally sufficient, and prices are running at a low level. In the second half of the year, the foundation and conditions for maintaining the overall stability of the agricultural product market are better, and people are generally guaranteed to eat food, meat and vegetables.
"Overall, due to successive years of high yields and sufficient stocks, this year's rice, wheat and downstream rice noodle markets in China have been affected by the epidemic, and prices have remained basically stable, which has also won the initiative for epidemic prevention and control. In mid-April, as the country increased Policy-oriented food delivery and the increase in the utilization rate of production capacity of food processing enterprises have markedly eased the tight supply situation in the market, consumption has gradually returned to rationality, and the overall ration prices have stopped stabilizing.” The official said.
According to monitoring, the average wholesale price of late indica rice in May was 1.98 yuan per catty, down 4.8% month-on-month and 2.9% year-on-year; japonica rice was 2.17 yuan per catty, up 1.9% month-on-month and 6.9% year-on-year; Zhengzhou grain wholesale market average wheat was 1.20 per catty Yuan, fell 1.8% month-on-month and 1.3% year-on-year. In June, the prices of rice and wheat rebounded slightly, but the overall situation remained basically stable. The person in charge said that from the perspective of later trends, this year's summer grain output reached a new high, and the quality of new wheat is generally better; the area of early rice has obviously recovered, the area of autumn grain planting is basically stable, and the harvest for the whole year is based. It is expected that grain prices will remain basically stable.
Since the beginning of this year, pork market prices have generally shown a "V" trend. Since the Spring Festival, affected by the continuous growth of production capacity and the slow recovery of consumption caused by the epidemic, the pork wholesale market price continued to fall to the end of May, a continuous decline of 15 weeks, and the average weekly price fell to 38.71 yuan per kilogram, a cumulative decrease of 22.9%. Since June, as the catering industry resumed operations, factories resumed work, schools resumed classes, pork consumption increased significantly, prices began to rebound, and the average price of pork wholesale market was 47.73 yuan per kilogram in the 28th week of 2020 (July 6-12) , Rose by 4.0% month-on-month and up 105.0% year-on-year. The month-on-month increase has been 6 consecutive weeks, with a cumulative increase of about 9.02 yuan per kilogram.
From the later trend, my country's live pig inventory and piglet supply have recovered for four consecutive months, which means that the slaughter will increase significantly after July, and market supply will improve. However, pork consumption has gradually entered the peak season in the second half of the year, and pork prices will generally rise seasonally from June to September each year. This year's consumption growth after the epidemic prevention and control situation has improved, may increase the pressure of the periodic rise. At the same time, it is expected that pork imports will increase by 1 million tons this year and poultry output will increase by 1 million tons. The person in charge analyzed and comprehensively considered factors such as the restoration of hog production, the increase in pork imports, and the stable supply of substitutes such as poultry, etc., and the market supply is guaranteed.
In the first half of this year, the prices of vegetables and fruits rose first and then fell. After March, with the effective control of the epidemic situation, the logistics in various areas gradually became smooth, and the vegetable prices showed a significant seasonal decline. For three consecutive months, the price fell by more than 10%, and the vegetable prices quickly dropped to the normal level. In June, heavy rain continued in the south, and strong convection weather occurred in the main summer vegetable production areas such as Hebei and Shandong. The vegetable production was affected and prices increased. The national average wholesale price of 28 vegetables monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Areas was 4.03 yuan per kilogram, up 3.3% from the previous month and up 5.2% from the same period last year. Among them, the prices of 17 vegetables increased from the previous month.
Judging from the law of previous years, the vegetable prices generally entered the upward range in July and August during the "summer off season", and this year is expected to be no exception. According to the forecast of the National Meteorological Center, the precipitation in Northeast China, North China, Huanghuai, Jianghuai, Jianghan and other places in July is more than the same period of the previous year. The secondary disasters caused by heavy rainfall and heavy rainfall may adversely affect the production and circulation of vegetables. The price of individual products may fluctuate significantly.
In June, as various seasonal fruits such as watermelons, melons, peaches, etc. were concentrated on the market, the supply increased, and the price of fruits fell seasonally. The average wholesale price of the six kinds of fruits monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Areas was 5.89 yuan per kilogram, down 6.1 month-on-month. %, a year-on-year decrease of 29.8%. It is expected that as seasonal fruit supply continues to increase in the later period, fruit prices will continue to decline seasonally.