From negative to positive, China's economy will continue to recover (People's Forum)
On July 16, the National Bureau of Statistics released economic data for the second quarter and first half of this year. In the second quarter, my country's GDP increased by 3.2% year-on-year, from negative to positive. In the first half of the year, my country's economy fell first and then rose. The main indicators resumed growth, the economic operation recovered steadily, the basic livelihood security was strong, the market expectation was generally good, and the overall social development was stable. The uplifting data and the positive trend further demonstrate the resilience and vitality of my country's economy, and further inspire confidence and motivation in the whole society.
Putting it in international coordinates, it is more understandable that the 3.2% increase is really commendable, and it is not easy to change from negative to positive. As the global new coronary pneumonia epidemic continues to spread, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank further lowered their global economic growth expectations this year. Some advanced economies may fall into a deep recession, while China reached a positive growth rate that exceeded expectations in the second quarter. The more you experience a tremendous impact, the more you can check the color and background color, the more you can see the deep advantages and development potential. The fact that the Chinese economy has withstood the severe impact of the epidemic is worth a thousand words, which is enough to show the resilience and potential of the Chinese economy, and it is enough to show that the basic trend of China’s economic stability and long-term improvement has not changed or will not change.
The added value of the industries above the designated size and the added value of the service industry have all changed from negative to positive. The total retail sales of consumer goods and the decline in fixed asset investment have all narrowed sharply... From the perspective of trends, all indicators in the second quarter have shown marginal improvement, which will continue for the second half of the year. Recovery has laid a solid foundation. In a big developing country with a population of 1.4 billion, the Party Central Committee led the people of the country to win the battle against epidemic prevention and control, effectively control the epidemic in a short time, and create the necessary conditions for economic recovery. During the epidemic prevention and control period, from fiscal and tax support to financial support, from issuing consumer coupons to supporting small and medium-sized enterprises, a series of macro policies were intensively introduced, which provided the necessary support for economic recovery. It can be seen that the change from negative to positive does not happen naturally. This is because the institutional advantages are playing a role, which fully shows that the Party Central Committee has the superb ability to control the Chinese economy and can lead China to overcome risks and challenges and achieve its goals.
Economic development depends not only on aggregate data but also on structural data; it depends on both fundamentals and new changes. During the epidemic prevention and control period, new industries, new formats, and new models continue to emerge. New models such as remote office, online education, intelligent construction, unmanned distribution, etc. have effectively solved the plugging points and difficulties in real life; the new generation of digital technologies represented by cloud computing, big data, artificial intelligence, etc. are developing rapidly Industry empowerment; new industries such as digital economy, intelligent manufacturing, and life health have formed more growth poles. The epidemic has accelerated the arrival of the digital economy and also objectively promoted the growth of new kinetic energy. Reflected in the statistics, the added value of high-tech manufacturing in the first half of the year increased by 4.5% year-on-year, investment in e-commerce service industry increased by more than 30%, and related products such as infrastructure construction grew relatively fast. The emergence of new business forms and surging new momentum not only continue to provide strong support for the economic recovery, but also provide more momentum for the next stage of economic growth, and provide sustainable momentum for the high-quality development of China's economy.
At the same time, it should also be noted that despite the marginal improvement in the second quarter, the main indicators such as GDP, industry, service industry, consumption, and investment in the first half of the year are still in the decline range, so the recovery in the second quarter is still a recovery. From a cross-sectional perspective, the supply side recovers faster than the demand side; from the external environment, the overseas epidemic situation is still spreading and spreading, and the world economy is struggling to restart; from the employment situation, the pressure to stabilize the enterprise and maintain employment is still greater. All these indicate that we must maintain optimism and strengthen confidence macroscopically and strategically, and at the same time, we must not take it lightly microscopically and tactically, and we must wait in strict order. This requires continuing to make good use of macro-policy tools, not only to maintain policy strength, but also to consider sustainability, and to adjust policies flexibly according to the development of the situation in the second half of the year. From a deeper perspective, it is necessary to further comprehensively deepen reform and opening up, rely on reforms to cope with changing circumstances, develop new situations, strengthen the stamina and vitality of economic development, and ensure China's economic stability and longevity.
Looking back at history, my country's economy has always grown and developed while overcoming difficulties. Adhere to a comprehensive, dialectical and long-term view of China's economic development, and give full play to China's perfect industrial system, super-large market size, huge human resources and other unique advantages. We have full confidence, conditions, and potential to promote China's sustained economic recovery. A decisive victory for a comprehensive well-off society and a decisive battle against poverty have laid a solid foundation.
Li Zheng