(Economic Observation) World Epidemic "Severe Cold" China Brings "Warmness" to Global Economy
China News Agency, Beijing, July 16 (Xia Bin) The world epidemic situation is still in "cold". According to data from Johns Hopkins University in the United States, as of 12:44 on the 16th, Beijing time, the number of confirmed cases worldwide has exceeded 13.55 million cases and more than 580,000 deaths. The United States is the country with the worst epidemic in the world. Recently, there have been a significant increase in newly diagnosed cases in many countries.
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The epidemic has cast a shadow over the world economy, and China is sending "warmth" to the world. At 10 a.m. on the 16th, China officially announced the economic "semi-annual report". The economy realized a "deep V" rebound in the second quarter. The GDP growth rate increased from a negative 6.8% in the first quarter to a positive 3.2% in the second quarter. It is 11.5%.
"China's economic data for the second quarter released today not only changed from negative to positive, but also exceeded market benchmark expectations. From the perspective of the global economic pattern under the impact of the epidemic, emerging markets and developed economies will usher in the first simultaneous recession since the Great Depression." Cheng Shi, chief economist at Bank International told reporters from China News Service that according to the IMF's forecast, the global economic growth rate in 2020 will be negative 4.9%. Among the major economies, China is the only country that maintains positive growth.
Cheng Shi further stated that compared with China, the US economic data in the second quarter is about to be announced, and the growth rate of minus 30% to minus 40% is the current market benchmark expectation. In contrast, the "wrong valley effect" of China-US economic growth in 2020 appears. With the US epidemic situation not yet under fundamental control, as another of the most important engines of the global economy, China will become a global supply and demand stabilizer in 2020 and 2021.
"Due to China's success in fighting the epidemic and speeding up the resumption of production, especially the'six guarantees and six stability' are well in place, China will inevitably become a bright spot in the global economy." Wei Jianguo, deputy chairman of the China International Economic Exchange Center When participating in the "China is the Forum-China Mid-2020 Economic Situation Analysis Conference" organized by China News Service, he said that because China has successfully made the economic recovery ahead of the world, its influence, persuasion and credibility have been recognized globally.
China has embarked on a path of sound recovery and has brought hope to the global economy. Sergei Ranau, deputy chief economist of the International Finance Association, believes that China’s experience shows that in countries with effective epidemic control measures, industrial production is expected to achieve a strong recovery. The improvement of China’s economic activity in the second quarter is an important sign of global economic recovery .
CNN reported in the report that after the worst three months in decades, China's economy has resumed growth again, which is a good sign for the global recovery after the epidemic. The IMF said in June that China’s early return to growth may herald good news for the rest of the world.
"China's economic recovery has a very positive spillover effect on the world." Cai Fang, vice president of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, gave this judgment. He pointed out that as a major manufacturing country, China's resumption of production and production will provide direct help for global epidemic resistance in the production and supply of medical materials; China has the world's largest consumer group, and the process of resuming consumption will inevitably activate global market demand; China will increase infrastructure Investment intensity will also generate strong demand for exports from other countries.
Wei Jianguo said: "I believe that after the epidemic, the burden on China will be heavier and the global expectation of China will be greater." (End)