At a time when France is monitoring the risk of the second wave of Covid-19 like milk on fire, a report draws up the already salty bill for the first: 22 points of GDP this year, according to a report on Thursday from the Finance Commission of The national assembly. The shock is estimated "at this stage" at around 22 points of GDP, taking as reference the third amending finance bill which assesses the ratio of French debt to GDP at 120.9% or 2.650 billion euros, indicates the report.
>> LIVE - Coronavirus: follow the evolution of the situation Thursday July 16
"The current economic crisis, induced by the health crisis linked to the Covid-19 pandemic, has led to a deterioration in public finances unprecedented since the Second World War", is it written in the document presented by Laurent Saint-Martin , general rapporteur of the Budget to the National Assembly.
High use of debt issues on the financial markets
The State's recourse to debt issues on the financial markets should explode by more than a third, emphasize the authors, estimated at 361.2 billion euros in total against 230.5 billion euros initially, d 'after the amending finance bill. The European Central Bank, for its part, played a "decisive" role with its arsenal of accommodative monetary measures which made it possible to keep interest rates low.
But while the hot topic of debt was already igniting political leaders and economists even before the coronavirus, is such a level of debt sustainable? "There is no single, defined level of the ratio characteristic of an unsustainable situation," emphasize the authors who interviewed several economists from different backgrounds.
CORONAVIRUS ESSENTIALS
> Coronavirus: what we know about transmission by micro-droplets in the air
> Coronavirus: three reasons to continue to respect barrier gestures
> Holidays: should grandparents worry about looking after their grandchildren?
> Can we catch coronavirus on a plane?
> Coronavirus: 5 mistakes not to make with your mask
They warn, however, against the deterioration of France's image with its creditors and the weakening of growth. The situation "should lead us to question ourselves with a new look at the lasting nature of this situation", say the authors.
Danger of austerity policies
Especially since the crisis is not over and the recovery plans "should not be financed by a significant increase in compulsory levies". On this point, the document highlights the dangers of the austerity policies that have cost Europe precious growth points after the sovereign debt crisis.
Hence the emergence of the issue of "cantonment" of the debt, also addressed in the report, while Prime Minister Jean Castex said Wednesday that the debt resulting from the crisis would be treated separately with a reimbursement spread over the long term via a dedicated resource.