China News Service, July 16, Liu Aihua, spokesman of the National Bureau of Statistics and director of the Department of Comprehensive Statistics of the National Economy, said on the 16th that from the end of the second quarter, the number of live pigs has continued to increase three quarters sequentially, and live pig production is gradually recovering . She also pointed out that although food prices may fluctuate locally in the short term in the second half of the year, the overall situation of steady decline will not change, and the overall price situation will continue to remain stable.
On the 16th, the State Council Office held a press conference on the operation of the national economy in the first half of 2020. Liu Aihua made the above statement when answering questions from reporters.
Liu Aihua said that in the first half of this year, prices have generally remained stable, with prices rising 3.8% in the first half of the year, down 1.1 percentage points from the first quarter. It is more obvious from the monthly changes, which is basically the downward trend of volatility. In June, the CPI rose by 2.5% year-on-year, which is in a moderate upward range. Under the impact of the epidemic situation this year and the recent floods and floods, the ability to return to such a range is indeed the result of measures taken by various parties to guarantee supply and stabilize prices.
Judging from the current composition of prices, the main factors driving price increases are structural, mainly driven by food prices. About 80% of the 3.8% increase in the first half of the year was driven by food. Food prices rose by 16.2% in the first half of this year. The overall price increase contributed more than 80%. Judging from the month of June, food prices rose by 11.1% and prices rose slightly by 0.5 percentage points, which was also the main contribution.
Judging from the main factors that determine the price trend in the second half of the year, the current industrial and consumer products will not change much when supply and demand are relatively stable. The main factor is still in the food. The first is the impact of food prices. Yesterday, the National Bureau of Statistics just announced the output of summer grain. Summer grain production increased by 0.9%, and the summer grain harvest has laid a very good foundation for the stability of grain prices and even the stability of overall food prices. Food prices currently do not have the basis for a substantial increase, and it can be said that the basic market has stabilized.
Regarding the price trend of live pigs, Liu Aihua said that in the past two years, governments at all levels have taken a series of measures, such as increasing capital subsidies, guaranteeing land use and other measures to promote the recovery of live pig production. Judging from the situation at the end of the second quarter, the number of live pigs has continued to increase sequentially for three quarters, and live pig production is gradually recovering.
On the other hand, we must also see that the production of live pigs still faces certain difficulties, including flood disasters that have affected the slaughter of live pigs in some areas. The data for June has already been reflected. The price increase of pork in June turned positive, and the price rose by 81.6% year-on-year. It was 81.7% in May, and the increase in May and June was basically the same. Therefore, on the one hand, the measures taken in the previous stage are working, and the production capacity of hogs is gradually recovering. On the other hand, the impact of floods on the production capacity of hogs and pork prices has appeared. On the whole, capacity recovery is still relatively obvious. The impact on pork prices in the next stage will be gradually reflected.
Regarding the impact of the flood disaster on the price of fresh vegetables, Liu Aihua pointed out that the current flood disaster has affected the production, storage and transportation of fresh vegetables in some places. The price of fresh vegetables in the month changed from negative to positive, and the flood disaster was a short-term meteorological factor, which may have a greater impact on the short-term supply of fresh vegetables, and even some regions will be more prominent. However, the supply cycle of fresh vegetables is relatively short, and with the follow-up of policies such as production and transportation, the prices of fresh vegetables will not change significantly, and will not have a continuous impact on the price trend in the second half of the year.
Liu Aihua said that the price of fresh fruit in food is still declining, and the price of aquatic products is also relatively stable. From these points of view, although food prices may fluctuate locally in the short term in the second half of the year, the overall situation of steady decline will not change, and the overall price situation will continue to remain stable.