China-Singapore Jingwei client, July 16 (Dong Xiangyi) The high-profile semi-annual report of China's economy in 2020 was finally announced. The National Bureau of Statistics released data on the 16th that the first half of the year's GDP was 456.1614 trillion yuan, according to comparable prices Calculated, it decreased by 1.6% year-on-year. In the second quarter, GDP increased by 3.2% year-on-year, from negative to positive.

How did the Chinese economy perform in the first half of the year? How is the economy going in the second half of the year? Will real estate investment continue to be strong? Will employment pressure increase further? What is the impact of the flood on the economy? On the 16th, the State Council Office held a press conference on the operation of the national economy in the first half of 2020. Liu Aihua, a spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics and director of the Department of Comprehensive Statistics of the National Economy, answered questions from reporters. The press conference responded to a series of hot issues.

　　Source: Guoxin

How did the Chinese economy perform in the first half of the year?

——Overcome the adverse effects of the epidemic and achieve a gradual recovery

　　In the first half of the year, my country's economy fell first and then rose. The economic growth rate in the second quarter was 3.2%. The outside world is generally concerned about the performance of the Chinese economy in the first half of 2020.

　　"As a large developing country with a population of 1.4 billion, my country can effectively control the epidemic in a short period of time, realize the economy from falling to rising, and maintain the overall stability of the economic and social situation. It is extremely difficult." Liu Aihua pointed out.

　　From the main indicators: employment prices are generally stable, the unemployment rate in the national urban survey in June was 5.7%, a slight decline for two consecutive months; the rise in consumer prices showed a downward trend. In the first half of the year, consumer prices rose by 3.8% year-on-year. It fell 1.1 percentage points in the first quarter.

　　Investment, consumption, and export-driven economic growth have also been eye-catching. The decline in total retail sales of consumer goods in the second quarter narrowed by 15.1 percentage points from the first quarter; the decline in fixed asset investment in the first half of the year narrowed by 13.0 percentage points from the first quarter. The indicators have improved significantly. Monthly, the total retail sales of social consumer goods have narrowed for four consecutive months, and exports have been increasing for three consecutive months.

　　Liu Aihua emphasized that in the first half of this year, the Chinese economy gradually overcame the adverse effects brought about by the impact of the epidemic and achieved a gradual recovery. However, since the main indicators such as GDP, industry, service industry, consumption, and investment were still in the decline area in the first half of the year, the rebound growth in the second quarter was still a recovery growth. The losses caused by the epidemic have not been fully compensated, and it will take hard work to push the economy back to normal.

　　Liu Aihua, Spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics and Director of the Comprehensive Statistics Department of the National Economy Source: Guoxin

How is the economy going in the second half of the year?

——Continued recovery is supported

　　What impact will the epidemic spread globally have on the economic growth in the third and fourth quarters? In this regard, Liu Aihua pointed out that from the recovery of various economic indicators in the first half of the year, especially in the second quarter, the continued recovery of the economy in the second half of the year is supported.

　　First, the steady recovery of the economy in the first half of the year laid a solid foundation for continued recovery in the second half of the year. Since March, many indicators have clearly rebounded or narrowed. The overall impact of the epidemic is controllable, and China's economic self-adjustment ability is relatively strong. my country has a perfect industrial system, increasingly perfect infrastructure, and huge market advantages. These advantages will still effectively deal with the impact of the epidemic in the next stage.

　　Second, during the epidemic, many new industries, new formats and new models were born, which will continue to provide strong support for economic recovery. The third is that the macro-policy effect will become more apparent. In the first half of the year, my country adopted fiscal and taxation support, financial support, and comprehensive reinforcement of employment priority policies, and these policies have already seen results.

　　Liu Aihua pointed out, "From these favorable conditions, we are confident in the continued economic recovery in the second half of the year. At the same time, the economic recovery is also based, promising, and conditional."

　　New latitude and longitude in the data map

Will real estate investment continue to be strong?

——Have an observation attitude

　　According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first half of the year, national real estate development investment was 627.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, and a decrease of 7.7% in the first quarter. Will real estate investment continue to be strong in the second half of the year?

　　In this regard, Liu Aihua said that the current status of real estate investment and the trend in the second half of the year. In the first half of the year, real estate investment has turned positive, with an increase of 1.9%, but at the same time, we should also see more real estate market indicators, such as new housing construction area, land purchase area, and some commercial housing sales indicators, which are still in the falling range. Therefore, we should still observe the trend of real estate in the second half of the year.

Will it withdraw from expansionary fiscal policy?

——Adjust according to the actual situation

　　It is worth noting that as China's economy gradually returns to normal, will some emergency policies adopted in the first half of the year, such as expansionary fiscal and monetary stimulus policies, slow down or withdraw in the second half of the year? There has also been a response to this issue.

　　Liu Aihua believes that we must first correctly understand the current economic situation. There was a clear rebound in the second quarter. From the first half of the year, most indicators are in a state of improvement or narrowing. However, judging from the accumulated speed in the first half of the year, most indicators in the areas of GDP, industry, service industry, investment, and consumption are in the falling range.

　　Liu Aihua pointed out that our judgment on the current economic recovery is considered to be restorative growth. As for how the policy will be adjusted in the second half of the year, the Government Work Report has made clear arrangements. At present, macro-policy should not only consider maintaining policy strength, but also consider sustainability. In the future, it must be adjusted according to actual conditions. In other words, the current policy is to maintain a certain degree of flexibility. In the second half of the year, it will make appropriate adjustments according to the development of the situation and the implementation of the "six stability" and the implementation of the "six guarantees" task.

　　In terms of monetary policy, the client of Sino-Singapore Jingwei noted that the central bank had previously stated that some special and staged monetary policy tools introduced in response to the epidemic were themselves temporary policy measures. When the policy setting situation no longer applies Then it will automatically quit. Guo Kai, deputy director of the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Department, emphasized that China’s monetary policy stance is still stable, and monetary policy is more flexible and appropriate, and now more emphasis is placed on “appropriateness”.

　　New latitude and longitude in the data map

Will employment pressure increase further?

——The employment pressure of key groups is greater

　　The data shows that the unemployment rate in the national urban survey in June was 5.7%, a slight decline for two consecutive months. With the arrival of the college graduation season, will the future employment pressure increase further?

　　Liu Aihua pointed out that under the role of employment priority policies, the employment situation in the first half of this year has seen positive changes. The proportion of people who did not work during the epidemic continued to decrease, and it had dropped to 0.8% in June, basically the same as last year.

　　However, due to the impact of the epidemic, employment pressure this year is still relatively large. In the first half of this year, the number of newly-employed people in urban areas increased by 1.73 million less than the same period last year; the unemployment rate of college students reached a new high during the same period. %, an increase of 2.1 percentage points from May and an increase of 3.9 percentage points from the same period last year.

　　As far as the current employment situation is concerned, Liu Aihua emphasized that some key groups are under greater pressure. The next step is to implement policies to reduce taxes and fees, and reduce social security fees and house rents, to help market players overcome difficulties and stabilize the basic employment market. Secondly, through measures such as increasing the enrollment of graduate students to better solve the employment problem of college graduates. In addition, strengthen employment assistance, encourage employment in new formats and flexible employment, and drive more rural laborers to find jobs locally.

How much does the flood disaster affect the economy?

——Will pay close attention and reflect in time

　　People from all walks of life are also concerned that the south is experiencing severe floods and floods. Are there any estimates of the impact of floods on the economy? Is it included in the GDP data for the second quarter?

　　According to Liu Aihua, judging from the current June statistics, some areas have already emerged. For example, in the June consumer price index, the price of fresh vegetables has turned from negative to positive year-on-month and year-on-year. However, the impact on more areas is still being monitored closely.

　　As for the impact of the flood epidemic, how much impact will it have on the Chinese economy in the second half of the year? Liu Aihua said that in the first half of the year, in countering the impact of the epidemic, the macroeconomic counter-cyclical adjustment policy has been adopted, and considerable experience has been accumulated. The experience in macro-control is becoming more and more abundant, and there is also room for policy. From the next stage, we will pay close attention and reflect the impact in this regard in a timely manner. (Sino-Singapore Jingwei APP)