(Economic Observation) The confidence and confidence behind the "Shenzhen V" rebound in the second quarter of the Chinese economy

　　China News Agency, Beijing, July 16 (Xia Bin) China's economic "semi-annual report" was released on the 16th, and in the case of negative growth in the first quarter, the "deep V" rebound in the second quarter. The data shows that the GDP growth rate in the first quarter decreased by 6.8% year-on-year, and increased by 3.2% in the second quarter. From a quarter-on-quarter perspective, GDP growth in the second quarter reached 11.5%.

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　　On the same day, the China News Service held the "Country is the Forum-Mid-2020 Economic Situation Analysis Conference". Many experts pointed out when attending the meeting that the latest economic data released released warmth, showing the strength and confidence of China's economy.

　　Wei Jianguo, deputy chairman of the China International Economic Exchange Center, bluntly stated that China has become a bright spot in the global economy due to the success of China's fight against the epidemic and the acceleration of resumption of production and production, especially the work of "six guarantees" and "six stability".

　　Guan Tao, global chief economist of BOC Securities, believes that China's economy has the advantage of being the first to recover. The PMI index has been above the boom and bust line for four consecutive months. The performance of exports and utilization of foreign capital has exceeded market expectations. The economy also achieved 3.2% in the second quarter In the second half of the year, the stability of the RMB exchange rate will gradually appear, but it should also be noted that news factors may increase the two-way exchange rate fluctuations.

　　According to Dong Yu, executive vice president of the China Development Planning Institute of Tsinghua University, the main indicators of economic development such as GDP growth, added value by industry, and PMI can support the judgment of China's economic stabilization. "This stabilization is not only a rebound in indicators, but more importantly, confidence is stabilizing and expectations are stabilizing."

　　It is worth noting that the foreign trade situation is improving month by month. Talking about the reasons for the recovery of foreign trade, Wang Xiaosong, a researcher at the National Development and Strategy Research Institute of Renmin University of China and a professor at the School of Economics, believes that on the one hand, the growth of imports and exports of China and ASEAN is an important bright spot. The key development of emerging markets is particularly important.

　　On the other hand, the import and export of general trade accounted for more than 60% of the overall foreign trade in the first half of the year. In the past, China has relied on processing trade for many years. The impact of the epidemic has given China an excellent opportunity to extend its industrial chain.

　　Xu Ningning, executive director of the China-ASEAN Business Council, also mentioned that in fact, as of January this year, ASEAN has become China’s largest trading partner. In the next five months, ASEAN is China every month. The largest trading partner. "ASEAN was China's third largest trading partner the year before last year. ASEAN became China's second largest trading partner last year, and this year it has jumped into China's largest trading partner."

　　Achieving the task of getting rid of poverty as scheduled is the top priority of this year's people's livelihood exam. Zhang Qi, Dean of the China National Poverty Alleviation Research Institute of Beijing Normal University, said that the employment protection measures in the poor areas in the first half of this year had obvious effects and provided a guarantee for the income growth of the poor areas. In the first half of the year, the poverty-stricken labor force in 25 provinces was about 28.3 million, exceeding the total number of migrant workers last year. At the same time, the 4.33 million poor people were placed in the poverty alleviation public welfare posts in 22 provinces in the central and western regions. To a certain extent, the impact of the epidemic on the employment of the poor has also been alleviated.

　　Zhang Qi said: "In the first half of 2020, the national key work on poverty alleviation has achieved remarkable results, and it should be sure to ensure that the goals and tasks of poverty alleviation are fully completed in 2020."

　　Regarding the property market trend closely related to people's livelihood, Ni Pengfei, director of the Center for Urban and Competitiveness Research of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, predicts that the property market will continue to undergo multi-layer differentiation and a steady and sustained recovery in the second half of the year.

　　He emphasized that the future direction of the property market is determined by environmental changes and policy responses. Based on the importance of real estate and changes in the internal and external environment of the property market, stabilizing the property market should be an important macroeconomic goal and task. The goal of property market regulation and control is to maintain regulation and control, release market potential, and improve the regulation mechanism.

　　"The impact of the epidemic will continue, and uncertainty still exists." Dong Yu believes that while responding to the epidemic in the first half of the year, China has successively issued some reform documents with heavy weight and sufficient gold content, such as market-oriented allocation of factors, market economic system, Hainan Free Trade Port, etc. "As long as we continue to deepen reform and opening up and use reforms to solve problems, the difficulties and challenges ahead are not difficult." (End)