Yields hit a new low and equity markets warmed
Monetary fund shrinks by 10% in a single month
According to the latest data released by the China Securities Investment Fund Industry Association, as of the end of June this year, there were 129 fund management companies in my country, and the net asset value of public funds managed by these institutions totaled 16.90 trillion yuan. In terms of categories, the share of public funds in June shrank by more than 1 trillion units from the previous month. Among them, the monthly size of monetary funds decreased by more than 850 billion copies, and the scale shrank by about 10%.
Jia Zhi, executive general manager of the Ping An Securities Fund Research Team, believes that there have been several reasons why the size of currency funds has shrunk dramatically since the second quarter of this year:
First, the yield of money funds is lower, and some investors choose alternative investment products such as short-term bond funds and equity funds. Since the beginning of this year, the People’s Bank of China has taken care of liquidity from multiple angles, has implemented a comprehensive standard reduction and a targeted reduction, successively lowered the rate of reverse repurchase bids, and maintained liquidity at a reasonable and sufficient state.
Yang Huimin, an analyst at Rong 360, believes that the main asset allocations of monetary funds are interbank deposits, interbank deposit certificates and buy-back resale. Since the first half of the year, market liquidity has been relatively loose, the market capital interest rate has remained at a low level, and the income of money funds has also withdrawn.
Second, the hot equity market has also diverted some funds, but the stability of the diversion of funds will also change with the fluctuation of the equity market.
According to the statistics of Jinniu Finance Network, as of July 15, the average 7-day annualized return rate of the 674 currency funds included in the statistics was 2.18%, which was a decrease of 0.17 and 0.18 percentage points from the fourth quarter of 2019. Take Yu'ebao as an example. From 2017 to 2018, Yu'ebao's 7-day annualized return was between 3% and 4%. Since then, it has been declining all the way, and it is currently maintained at about 1.4%. The latest yield on July 15 is 1.3780%.
At the same time that the yield of Yu'ebao fell, short-term debt funds ushered in good development opportunities, and the scale of some short-term debt funds with excellent performance rose sharply.
From the perspective of the fund industry, banks' T+0 wealth management products, short-term wealth management debt base and other currency fund alternatives are constantly increasing, especially equity funds have gone out of a market, and it is not surprising that currency funds have been diverted. Wind information shows that since March, there have been 37 explosive funds with a subscription scale of more than 5 billion yuan, and 12 public funds with a subscription amount of 10 billion yuan.
Liu Yiqian, head of the Shanghai Securities Fund Research Center, said that when the equity market is picking up, many investors choose to redeem currency funds to buy equity-type explosive funds. The "seesaw" effect of the stock market and fixed income market gradually appears, that is, Whenever the stock market turns warmer, bond funds and currency funds are redeemed more, and the scale decreases; conversely, when the stock market continues to fall, the size of fixed income funds increases significantly.
Yang Yuanchun, research director of the FIF Research Institute of Yingmi Fund, believes that the world has entered a cycle of interest rate cuts. Domestic financial regulators have also made it clear that monetary policy should increase counter-cyclical adjustment, and the rate of return of currency assets may remain low.
Yang Huimin believes that currency funds have the advantages of low threshold, low risk, and high liquidity, which is an important allocation direction for petty and emergency funds. Currency fund investors are not only concerned about product yields. In a short period of time, if there are no better alternatives, or if equity funds retreat, the size of money funds will continue to grow.
Our reporter Zhou Lin