Every move in the Shenzhen property market has attracted national attention. This is because Shenzhen has become a leader in the previous round of property market rises.
On July 15th, Shenzhen released a new policy for the property market: Shenzhen's household registration must be at least 3 years old and the social security must be at least 36 months to buy a house. Non-Shenzhen household registration needs a social protection at least 5 years to buy a house. On the basis of the past, there are also purchase restrictions for Shenzhen's registered population, which further reflects Shenzhen's implementation of the principle of "no housing, no speculation".
In the second half of the year, many places, including Shenzhen, Hangzhou and Ningbo, are tightening property market regulation. According to industry analysis, such policies have a strong weathervane significance, indicating that some cities with overheated housing prices in the second half of this year are still guided by tightening policies.
According to today's Shenzhen Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau and other departments issued the "Notice on Further Promoting the Steady and Healthy Development of Our City's Real Estate Market", households of Shenzhen households and adult singles (including divorces) must settle in this city for 3 years and be able to provide a Only a few days ago, continuous payment of personal income tax or social insurance certificates for 36 months or more in this city before buying commercial housing.
"This content is the core of the policy, indicating that the household registration population also needs to have social security payment records, and the requirements for similar social security payment are still relatively high, that is, the social security conditions of 3 years are required, and the severity of the policy can be seen." Yan Yuejin, Research Director of Think Tank Center, interpreted that such policies are aimed at the new situation in the Shenzhen property market, that is, with the increase in the number of settlers, the contradiction between supply and demand is increasing, and such contradictions must be alleviated through policy regulation.
According to the monitoring of the Shell Research Institute, from the perspective of weekly high-frequency monitoring data, the transaction volume of second-hand houses in Shenzhen last week (July 6 to July 12) exceeded the highest level of weekly transactions this year. From the perspective of the owners' expectations, the number of price increases of listed second-hand housing owners in Shenzhen accounted for more than 50% in the second quarter, and market expectations are optimistic.
In this regard, Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst of Shell Research Institute, believes that the introduction of Shenzhen’s policy is a strict implementation of “no housing, no speculation” and “one city, one policy”. Keep the market stable. It is clearly stipulated that the registered population must be settled for more than 3 years and have a social security payment record to buy a house, which accurately cracked down on the phenomenon of housing in Shenzhen in the first half of the year.
It is worth mentioning that on July 7, the Shenzhen Real Estate Intermediary Association issued a "Serious Reminder about Do Not Spread and Credulously False in the Real Estate Market", saying that the Shenzhen Real Estate Association Association data shows that last week about Shenzhen is about to introduce real estate Untruthful rumors of regulating the New Deal have been consciously spread, irresponsibly urging the urgency of property market transactions, misleading the short-term second-hand housing weekly net sign data rose 40.7%.
This policy has a strong signal significance. In fact, cities such as Ningbo and Hangzhou have had similar policy tightening before, with a clear purpose: to crack down on real estate speculation.
In the middle of the night on July 6, the New Deal in Ningbo's property market again. The biggest change is to expand the purchase restriction area from the original 140 square kilometers to 240 square kilometers, and at the same time clearly and strictly verify the sales price of newly sold land for commercial housing and strictly implement differentiated personal housing credit policies. The Housing and Urban-rural Construction Bureau of Ningbo explained that due to the slowdown in land supply after the epidemic, the release of supplementary residential demand for residents, the relatively loose financing environment, and the increasing attractiveness of Ningbo’s cities, the overall Ningbo real estate market has been in a hot state in recent times; In the land market, the auction of land auctions is fierce, land prices continue to rise, and the premium rate continues to rise. In the real estate market, price increases are expected to increase, and many real estates have repeated the phenomenon of queuing to buy houses and "daily CDs".
Hangzhou has also recently issued a document to clarify the five-year sales restriction for high-level talents to purchase houses, and stricter the identification conditions for "houses without houses", further increasing the inclination of the public sale of new house shakers to "houses without houses". From the outside world's point of view, this move has nothing to do with the real estate market in Hangzhou in the first half of the year: Hangzhou's new house sales area increased by 12% year-on-year in the first half of the year, the growth rate is larger in key first-tier and second-tier cities; It fell by 8% and was not greatly affected by the epidemic, but the average price of second-hand housing transactions in the second quarter rose by 6.2% year-on-year, ranking first in the key cities; from market expectations, the second-quarter increase in Hangzhou second-hand housing owners accounted for 27%. The city market in the Yangtze River Delta is generally expected to be stronger.
"Shenzhen such practices at least illustrate the policy direction of this year." Yan Yuejin said that in some cities, housing prices have risen too fast, which violates the direction of stabilizing housing prices and the policy direction of "no housing and no speculation". The introduction of such policies aims to further promote market stability and prevent market speculation. It is expected that other cities with unstable housing prices and housing prices rising too fast will still have policies in place.
Shenzhen is expected to begin its adjustment cycle. According to Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Real Estate, according to past Shenzhen market practices, it is expected that some investors will start to leave the market. From July to August, the market will shrink rapidly, and house prices will also begin to adjust. "Overall, it is expected that if the policy is strictly implemented in Shenzhen in the next six months, the investment ratio will plummet, and house prices will start a significant round of downward adjustment, with a decline of more than 5%," he said.
Cao Zheng, client reporter of Beijing Daily