China News Service Client Beijing, July 16th (Reporter Li Jinlei) The highly anticipated China Economic Semi-Annual Report will be announced today. On the morning of the 16th, the National Bureau of Statistics will release heavy macroeconomic data such as GDP for the first half of the year.
Under the impact of the epidemic, the Chinese economy was forced to "squat down" in the first quarter, and GDP fell by 6.8% year-on-year. Whether the GDP growth rate in the second quarter can be changed from negative to positive has become one of the biggest concerns of China's semi-annual report.
GDP data chart.
The Chinese economy is expected to achieve positive growth in the second quarter
How difficult is the Chinese economy in the first quarter? Just as a stalling giant wheel fell from the tip of the wave, the GDP growth rate in the first quarter was the lowest since the publication of the quarterly GDP in 1992.
Moreover, consumption, investment, and export "troika" all experienced negative growth, falling more than 10% year-on-year. Tourism, catering, accommodation and other industries also suffer from "freeze" and suffer.
Faced with a huge impact, China made a series of extraordinary measures to take the lead in controlling the epidemic situation globally and taking the lead in achieving full-scale resumption of production.
Since the second quarter, China's main economic indicators have continued to improve. The Economic Situation Experts and Entrepreneurs Symposium held on July 13 pointed out that the economy has recently shown signs of recovery and has gradually stabilized.
Some economic data released in advance can confirm this trend.
The manufacturing PMI exceeded the line for 4 consecutive months. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in June, China's manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) was 50.9%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, and was higher than the 50% line for four consecutive months.
Exports have been growing for three consecutive months. According to data from the General Administration of Customs, the overall performance of foreign trade imports and exports in the first half of the year was better than expected. In June, imports and exports achieved positive growth both for the first time during the year. Exports have maintained positive year-on-year growth for three consecutive months since April.
Wei Leichao Li Xueyao Cartography
The price increase has fallen back at a high level. The national consumer price (CPI) in May rose 2.4% year-on-year, and the June CPI rose 2.5% year-on-year, maintaining the "2 era" for two consecutive months.
The ever-improving data performance has also boosted the economists' predictions of the Chinese economy.
Data from wind shows that for the GDP growth rate in the second quarter, as many as 19 of the 20 research institutions predict positive growth, with an average forecast value of 2.9%.
Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, told reporters at Chinanews.com that after the outbreak of the New Coronary Pneumonia, the Chinese government coordinated the prevention and control of the epidemic and economic development, and achieved significant results. The main economic indicators continued to improve. The profits of industrial enterprises have achieved positive growth, the decline in consumer investment has narrowed, and the sales of automobile real estate have picked up. It is expected that the growth rate of China's economy will turn from negative to positive in the second quarter.
The CITIC Securities Research Report predicted that the boom in domestic production activities continued in June, and investment and consumption continued to improve. In the second half of the second quarter, the economy has shown a gradual transition from recovery to recovery after the epidemic to a cyclical upward trend. June is expected to be an important watershed in economic fundamental data. The possibility of the economy exceeding expectations is high. Comprehensive judgment predicts that GDP will increase in the second quarter The speed is 3.5%-4%.
Data Map: A real estate building just completed. China News Agency reporter Zhang Binshe
The international community is also optimistic about China's economic rebound in the second quarter. Japanese investment bank Nomura Securities pointed out that many recent Chinese indexes have been higher than expected, including electricity, real estate and car sales, so it has raised China's economic growth forecast for the second quarter from 1.2% to 2.6%.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF)’s World Economic Outlook released on June 24 pointed out that China’s economy is recovering from the sharp contraction in the first quarter. The growth rate in 2020 is expected to be 1.0%, which will benefit to a certain extent. Policy stimulus.
In addition to the expected "V" rebound in GDP growth, the China Economic Semi-annual Report has the following highlights:
One is the employment situation? Does the unemployment rate continue to fall?
Employment is the foundation of people's livelihood. Affected by the epidemic, the unemployment rate once rose. However, the unemployment rate in the national urban survey in May was 5.9%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from April. Can this situation continue in June? Outside attention.
Second, can the per capita disposable income of residents resume growth?
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first quarter, the national disposable income per capita was 8,561 yuan, a nominal increase of 0.8% year-on-year, and a real decrease of 3.9% after deducting price factors.
In the second quarter, China's economic growth is expected to change from negative to positive. Will the upcoming residents' income also achieve positive growth? The people are particularly concerned.
Third, can the growth rate of consumption achieve bottoming out?
Statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics show that market sales are gradually picking up. In May, the total retail sales of social consumer goods reached 3137.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.8%, a decrease of 4.7 percentage points from April.
At present, some market agencies expect the total retail sales of consumer goods in June to achieve positive growth. Whether this expectation can be fulfilled, the answer will be given today. (Finish)