In the II quarter of 2020, Russia's income from gold exports exceeded revenue from pipeline gas sales. This is evidenced by the materials of the Federal Customs Service (FCS) and the Central Bank.
According to the latest estimates of the FCS, in April - May, Russian companies shipped about 66 tons of gold abroad for $ 3.58 billion. Over the same period, Gazprom exported fuel for $ 2.44 billion.
At the same time, for the entire II quarter, gas sales brought Russia $ 3.5 billion, the Central Bank website says. According to the regulator, the value has become the lowest since 2002.
It is noteworthy that in April - May 2019, gold exports amounted to only 247 million, and gas - $ 5.75 billion. Thus, over the year, the supply of precious metals to other countries increased by more than 14 times, and fuel sales fell by almost half.
“A similar situation is associated with a change in the cost of these goods on world platforms. Since the beginning of 2020, natural gas prices in the European Union, which is one of the key sales markets for Russia, have fallen by 60%, while gold has risen in price by 20%, ”a senior analyst at Investment Ideas Factory said in an interview with RT. »BCS Vitaliy Gromadin.
Note that in July the price of gold for the first time since November 2011 exceeded $ 1800 per troy ounce. This is evidenced by data from the Comex Commodity Exchange. According to experts, traditionally, during the growth of uncertainty in the global economy, investors begin to actively buy precious metal as a reliable means to save money.
“The observed increase in the price of gold is associated with investors' concerns about the emergence of the second wave of coronavirus and, as a result, the protracted recovery of the global economy from the crisis," Arseniy Dadashev, director of the Academy of Financial and Investment Management, explained in an interview with RT.
In addition, experts explain the increase in gold exports by changing the mode of sales in the domestic market. So, from April 1, the Central Bank decided to suspend purchases of precious metals.
“Prior to this, the Central Bank was the main client of Russian gold mining companies and their partner banks, which also purchased precious metals for subsequent sale to the Central Bank. But the decision of the regulator, coupled with the beginning of the high season for gold mining, forced enterprises to enter foreign markets more actively. Russia ranks second in the world after China in gold production, producing 350 tons per year. It is impossible to sell such a volume only on the domestic market without the participation of the Central Bank, ”Valery Emelyanov, an analyst with Freedom Finance, explained to RT.
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In turn, analysts directly linked the decline in Russian gas sales with the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. The introduction of strict quarantine measures in most countries of the world has led to a decrease in business activity, closure of enterprises and a reduction in transportation. As a result, the consumption of all types of fuel, including gas, decreased. This opinion was expressed in a conversation with RT by TeleTrade chief analyst Mark Goichmann.
“Also, the decline in gas exports was caused by a rather warm winter in Europe. Ordinary consumers of gas, which use it for heating homes, have reduced consumption due to freezing temperatures. Moreover, at the end of 2019, European importers of Russian gas were making surplus reserves for the future due to the uncertainty about transit supplies through Ukraine, which led to an oversupply in 2020, ”added Goikhman.
At the same time, experts consider the current situation on the energy market temporary and believe that in the coming years Russia will be able to significantly strengthen its position as one of the main gas exporters in the world. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), in the period from 2019 to 2025, the country will account for about 20% of the growth in global gas supplies.
Guard the budget
According to the forecast of the Central Bank, against the backdrop of the coronavirus pandemic and low energy prices by the end of 2020, the budget deficit in Russia may amount to about 5-6% of GDP. According to a preliminary estimate of the Ministry of Finance, in January-June, the expenses of the Russian treasury already exceeded revenues by 955.8 billion rubles. At the same time, according to analysts, an increase in gold sales can mitigate the burden on the country's budget.
“Exporting gold to world markets brings significant revenue. As a result, careful operations with precious metals lead to the creation of some kind of financial airbag for the economy, ”Valery Emelyanov explained.
According to the Central Bank, over the past year, the share of precious metals in the country's gold and foreign exchange reserves has grown from about 13% to 23%. By early July, the corresponding volume exceeded $ 130 billion. According to Arseniy Dadashev, at the beginning of 2020, gold reserves in Russia exceeded 2270 tons. Such a volume of reserves allows directing a sufficient amount of funds to support the economy, the analyst said.
“Gold reserves really soften the blow from fairly low energy prices. So sales of precious metals stocks can be used to cover the budget deficit, balance of payments or repay external debt. The more free reserves, the more stable the country's economy, ”concluded Dadashev.