China News Client, Beijing, July 9 (Xie Yiguan) The National Bureau of Statistics will announce the National Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June on June 9. The market generally expects that the CPI increase in June may have expanded, but it is expected to continue to be in the "2 era".
CPI rise and fall chart. From the National Bureau of Statistics
June CPI year-on-year increase may expand
The prices of pork, vegetables, and fruits have fallen back. The CPI in May rose 2.4% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, and returned to the "2 era" after an interval of 8 months.
What is the year-on-year increase in CPI in June? According to Wind statistics, the average forecast of 21 research institutions for the year-on-year increase in June CPI was 2.6%. Among them, the predicted maximum value is 2.9% and the minimum value is 2.2%. If the above average forecast value is fulfilled, the June CPI increase will expand from May and continue to be in the "2 era."
The “National Agricultural Products Wholesale Market Price Information System” monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the June “Agricultural Wholesale Price 200 Index” was 112.92, a month-on-month decrease of 2.03 points and a year-on-year increase of 3.11 points. Among them, the average wholesale price of pork (the average wholesale price of white-striped meat) was 42.12 yuan/kg, up 4.1% month-on-month and 95.1% year-on-year; the average wholesale price of vegetables was 3.17 yuan/kg, up 3.4% month-on-month and 8.7% year-on-year.
It is worth noting that on June 30, the average price of pork in the national agricultural wholesale market was 45.38 yuan per kilogram. Compared with the price at the end of last month, it rose by nearly 7 yuan a month, an increase of 17.4%.
"The overall decline in food prices has narrowed since June, and the weekly frequency of edible agricultural products price index has fallen first and then increased. Pork prices have rebounded. The average wholesale price of pork in June was 41.5 yuan/kg, which was higher than last month." Transportation Liu Xuezhi, senior researcher at the Banking Finance Research Center, said.
"The price of refined oil products increased for the first time in the end of June this year, and the impact on prices will be more in the next month. The tail-lifting factor in June rose slightly by 0.1 percentage points." Liu Xuezhi analyzed that combining the above factors, the June CPI was mainly affected by pork prices and edible agricultural products prices. The impact of stop-up and rebound is expected to increase between 2.4-2.8% year-on-year, with a median value of 2.6%.
“The increase in vegetable prices in June may be the factor that has the strongest marginal pull-up effect on food CPI.” CITIC Jiantou pointed out that the calculation of high-frequency data shows that the fresh vegetable CPI in June increased by about 2.3% month-on-month and about 3.7% year-on-year. , An increase of more than 12 percentage points from the previous month. Calculated by the weight of 2.6% fresh vegetables, it is expected to drive the CPI growth of this month by nearly 0.1 percentage points year-on-year, and the CPI growth rate of this month will increase by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month.
Data map: Supermarket employees are sorting pork. Zhang Yunshe
What is the future trend of CPI increase?
In the future, will CPI's year-on-year increase continue to expand, or will it fall back?
In response, Cao Heping, a professor at the School of Economics at Peking University, told China News that prices are generally stable at the moment. It is expected that there will be a slight increase from mid-July to August, and the CPI increase may expand to about 3%.
Pork price is an important factor that affects the rise of CPI. According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Commerce, from June 29 to July 5, the wholesale price of pork was 46.3 yuan per kilogram, up 3.7% from the previous week. Will pork prices continue to rise, will CPI rise again?
"Pork prices are expected to maintain a steady decline in the second half of this year, and may fluctuate with seasonal and festive demand changes." National Development and Reform Commission spokesman Meng Wei said that China's grain and edible oil supply is sufficient, and the price of grain and oil It is expected to run smoothly, and prices of vegetables and fruits may have normal seasonal fluctuations, but food prices will generally remain basically stable.
Meng Wei pointed out that from the perspective of the whole year, the production and production situation of the major industrial and agricultural industries is in good condition, the supply of various consumer goods is sufficient, and there is a solid foundation to maintain the stable operation of prices. With the effect of tail-lifting gradually declining, it is expected that the CPI increase will continue to narrow later this year. The whole year may show a trend of high and low, and the overall price level will be in a reasonable range. (Finish)