The recession should be 9% this year in France, according to INSEE, which was on Wednesday a little more optimistic than the government and notes that "the French economy has recovered quite clearly" after two months of deconfinement . The government, for its part, anticipates a fall in gross domestic product of 11% and the Banque de France by 10%.
LIVE - Coronavirus: follow the situation on Wednesday July 8
"In June, economic activity would have closed three-fifths of the gap that separated it, at the bottom of containment, from its pre-crisis level", rejoices the National Institute of Statistics in its seventh economic outlook since the end of March. He also notes that "household consumption would be only 3 percentage points from its normal level", while households have accumulated very significant additional savings during the eight weeks of confinement and only a question of recovery is whether they will spend it or keep it in reserve.
GDP to rebound by 19% in the third quarter
After contracting by 5.3% in the first quarter and then by 17% in the second due to the coronavirus pandemic, the GDP would rebound by 19% in the third quarter then by 3% in the fourth, specifies the INSEE, which makes its first forecasts beyond June. "At the end of 2020, economic activity would remain slightly below its pre-crisis level", estimates the institute, in a range between -6% and -1%, depending on the scenarios, with an average of -4% .
"The production outlook is recovering very clearly: the strength of this rebound is very much due to the weakness of the starting point, that is to say economic activity in a period of containment," according to the note. "However, the order books, in particular internationally, remain deemed to be underfilled by industrial companies, which does not augur an immediate return to normal." Also, with exports down 36% over one year for the month of May, France's foreign trade "remains more degraded in May than national production in the recovery phase".