On July 6, the three major A-share stock indexes rose strongly. Among them, the Shanghai index recovered 3300 points, the largest one-day increase in 5 years, and the GEM index also reached a new high since 2016.
In fact, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen for 5 consecutive days, standing above 3000 points since July 1st, and reached 3332.88 points on July 6th, which has risen by more than 11% in 4 trading days. As of that day, the turnover of the two cities exceeded 1.5 trillion yuan, a five-year high, which was the third consecutive day that the turnover of the two cities exceeded trillion yuan. In this regard, Kang Chongli, deputy director of the Guangdong Research Institute of Securities, believes that the bull market that the market shouts can be expected, but it is only a "partial bull market" market. It is too early to define the current market as the big bull market in 2015.
Brokerage manager is busy "always answering the phone"
The surge in A-shares has caused many investors to be eager to move, and the hot trading of A-shares reproduces the brokerage APP downtime. Some investors said that the China Merchants Securities APP they used had been down for at least 15 minutes in the morning. In response, the China Merchants Securities customer service responded that there was no problem with the system, and also received relevant feedback from some customers, suggesting that they could try to log in again and switch the network in case of downtime.
In fact, the feelings of brokerage managers these days are just one word: busy.
"I have been answering the phone, not only is there a large amount of new customer consultations, but many old customers are also active." On the afternoon of July 6, a reporter from the Beijing News consulted many brokers such as Everbright Securities, Anxin Securities, Southwest Securities and many others. The manager sighed so. A person from the brokerage trading department told reporters that many businesses have achieved paperless and off-site processing. From the background statistics, online audits have suddenly increased in the past few days, and customers who have consulted and conducted business at outlets Mostly, it is mainly to open the authority, update the information, and change the name of large organizations.
According to several managers, stockholders can submit account opening applications online 24 hours a day, and the review time is from 9 am to 4 pm on working days. If you apply after 4 pm, you need to wait until the next day to review. Open the account the next day to trade.
“Some customers regret not getting on the train early.” The manager of the interviewed broker said that the review speed is very fast overall and can basically be completed on the same day, but there are still customers who want to make transactions faster.
The financial sector broke out, is the bull market coming?
On July 6, the financial sector continued to erupt, and securities dealers, banks, and insurance stocks set a daily limit. Historically, A-shares have experienced a large bull market from 2005-2007 and 2014-2015. The typical characteristics of the bull market include the rise of brokerage stocks and the expansion of trading volume. The current market data is more in line with these characteristics, does it mean that the A-share bull market is coming?
Kang Chongli, deputy director of the Guangdong Development Research Institute, believes that it is too early to define the current market as the 2015 bull market. The current market conditions are somewhat similar, and we still need to look at the trend of next year. "At present, it is the feature of the long cow bottom, which has laid the opening of the bull market, and the follow-up needs to grasp the rhythm."
Zhao Wei, Chief Market Analyst of Founder Securities, believes that it is now in the bull market and is more inclined to copy the bull market in 2014-2015. Judging from the volume of transactions, there has been an increase of off-site funds. The funds for this round of admission come from several sources, including bond market funds, northbound funds, and residents' savings funds, etc., forming a phased upward market. After the accumulation, an explosion will form.
In addition, Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Open Source Fund, believes that the comprehensive bull market in the A-share market has already emerged, and the A-share market will shift from a partial bull market in the first half of the year to a comprehensive bull market. In fact, the logic of this round of bull market is very clear. One reason is that the low interest rate and wide liquidity policy environment implemented by the central bank has maintained sufficient market liquidity, and even there has been excess. This is the basis of the strong stock market. In a low interest rate environment Underneath it is easier to produce a bull market. The second reason is the large transfer of household savings. Under the control policy of “no housing, no speculation”, the main investment channel for Chinese investors except real estate is the stock market, so a large number of residents enter the market by buying funds.
■ Interpretation
Will the current rally continue?
Kang Chongli believes that, on the basis that the Shanghai index rose 180 points on July 6, if there is no accident, July 7 may be closer to 3400 points-3500 points. From the high point area of the whole year of 2015, the platform above the Shanghai index is about 3600 points to 3700 points, so the index still has room to rise, but the position from the upper platform is relatively close, and it is about to encounter resistance. It remains to be seen whether it will rise to a higher area after passing over, and if it can break through, the level of this round of market will be greater.
In this regard, Zhao Wei believes that the current market enthusiasm has risen and funds will not flow out in the short term, so the upward trend will not change. Subsequent shocks may occur, or a "bull back" may appear, which is a rare opportunity for investors. In the medium and long term, Zhao Wei believes that there will be a ten-year bull market for A shares.
What can investors buy?
For the stocks that can be allocated at present, Kang Chongli said that he can focus on technology stocks in the second half of the year. As a growth type, the position can be increased; at the end of the year, some stocks with high performance certainty must be allocated, because from the full year, the performance this year It will still be affected. He believes that the flexibility of science and technology varieties is better, and the recent rise of pharmaceutical stocks due to short-term switching is not obvious, and there may be room for upward follow-up.
Kang Chongli reminded investors: "Mentality is the most important thing when it rises again. In the bull market, it is taboo to switch stocks quickly. What is better to chase and what may be chasing a circle and only earning a few points of the increase of one of the stocks."
Yang Delong advised investors to focus on the three major directions of consumption, brokerage and technology. In the comprehensive bull market in the second half of the year, some low-valuation sectors, including financial real estate, also ushered in rising opportunities, and brokers are undoubtedly the most resilient in the traditional industry. Once the bull market trend is established, various business of brokers will appear The large growth has brought a greater impetus to the stock prices of securities firms.
Zhao Wei said that there are also bear stocks in the bull market. Investors are advised not to chase up and down. Stocks that have risen too high should be exited in a timely manner. Stocks that have not yet risen but the company's fundamentals have no problems can wait patiently. In addition, he also pointed out that when the uncertainty in the fourth quarter before and after the US election is the highest, US stocks may be shaken. Although A shares have been relatively independent, they will still be affected to some extent, and investors should pay attention.
A picture to understand the rise of A shares on July 6
The Shanghai Composite Index
Up 5.71%
3333.88 points
SZSE Component Index
Up 4.09%
Report 12941.72 points
GEM
Up 2.72%
2252.49 points
Individual stock
● There are more than 3600 stocks rising in the two cities, over 200 stocks have daily limit, and only 200 stocks have fallen
Plate
● Brokerage sector closed up 9.64% throughout the day, 25 stocks in the sector daily limit
●More than 20 stock daily limit of Zhengzhou Bank, Qingdao Bank, Zhangjiagang Bank, etc.
●West China Water, China Life Insurance, Xinhua Insurance daily limit, China Pacific Insurance hit the daily limit
Volume
●The total turnover of the two cities reached 1.57 trillion yuan, a record high in the past five years
● Increased nearly 400 billion yuan from the previous trading day, an increase of 34%
A-share market capitalization
●As of the close on the 6th, the total market value of A shares exceeded 10 trillion US dollars (76.04 trillion yuan), the first time since June 2015
Northbound funds
●The total buying transaction was 93.153 billion yuan, the selling transaction was 79.50 billion yuan, and the total transaction value was 172.653 billion yuan, a new high since the interconnection.
●On July 6th, the net purchase of the whole day was 13.652 billion yuan, and the net purchase in the past three days exceeded 10 billion yuan, and the cumulative net purchase was nearly 44 billion yuan.
Shanghai Stock Connect net inflow of 5.1 billion yuan
Shenzhen Stock Connect has a net inflow of 8.552 billion yuan
The 30-year "share memory" of A shares
first round
December 1990 to February 1993
The Shanghai Stock Exchange was established in December 1990. At that time, the trading system implemented a 1% daily limit and the stock index continued to rise from 96.05. In particular, stimulated by the cancellation of the daily price limit on May 21, 1992, a single-day increase of 105% was achieved. This record has not been broken yet. The bull market reached a maximum of 1558 points.
second round
January 1996 to May 1997
May 1999 to June 2001
In 1996, advocating superior performance began to become the mainstream investment philosophy in the market. Leading stocks such as Shenzhen Development Bank and Sichuan Changhong were all outstanding performance growth stocks. Under the leadership of these stocks, the stock index returned to 1510 points. Starting from the bull market on May 19, 1999, the strong eruption of network concept stocks pushed the Shanghai Stock Index above 2000 points and hit a record high of 2245 points.
Third round
June 2005 to October 2007
This time the market is the most fundamentally supported market. The resolution of the share split problem, the appreciation of the RMB, the continuous growth of the company's performance, QFII and many other benefits have supported this round of the bull market, starting from 998 points, hitting a record high of 6124 points. Points, a full increase of 513.49%.
Fourth round
October 2008 to August 2009
With the launch of the four trillion market rescue plan and the top ten industry revitalization plans, the market capital has been unprecedentedly loose, and a large amount of funds have entered the stock market trading. Promoted by many factors, the development of this round of bull market has been promoted, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index has risen to a maximum of 3478 points.
Round five
July 2014 to June 2015
The broad market rose from around 2000 points to 5178 points, becoming the second highest point since 2007. This wave of the market is far higher than the previous market, liquidity became the core variable driving the market at that time, and superimposed factors such as the introduction of the "Belt and Road" and the smooth progress of the reform of state-owned enterprises.
Source: Haitong Securities and other brokerage research reports
Li Xunlei: The recent stock market rise is a structural bull market
Is a full bull market coming? How long will this round of rising market last? Looking at the longer timeline, how will China's capital market perform? The Beijing News reporter interviewed Li Xunlei, chief economist of Zhongtai Securities, on these issues.
Li Xunlei is not surprised by the recent performance of the capital market. In his view, the recent rise in the stock market belongs to the structural bull market since 2017. This round of stock market rally is not a full-blown bull market. In the traditional sense, a full-blown bull market may be difficult to come back. From a longer timeline, China's stock market will show a "2, 8" differentiation in the future-20% of stocks will rise, 80% of stocks will not rise or even fall.
Beijing News reporter Hou Runfang
Talk about the reason
The structural bull market continued in 2017
Beijing News: How do you view the recent performance of China's capital market?
Li Xunlei: The recent performance of the capital market is not surprising. This round of structural bull market has continued from 2017 to the present. Specifically, there are many reasons for the recent rise in the capital market. Both benefit from the improvement of economic fundamentals, the valuation of the broader market is at a historical low, and there are factors driven by the influx of funds such as the influx of international capital.
First, China's economic expectations have improved. While the global epidemic of new pneumonia is still spreading, the epidemic in China was relatively well controlled in March. Judging from the data in June, many macro data indicators showed positive year-on-year growth, and investor psychological expectations have also improved.
Second, the valuation of the broader market is at a historical low. Since the epidemic, GEM has performed relatively well, but the overall market trend is relatively weak. The valuation of the general market is basically at a historically low level, especially in the banking, insurance, securities, and real estate sectors.
Third, from a policy perspective, active fiscal policies and loose monetary policies are also conducive to creating a good environment for the capital market.
Fourth, from the outside, international capital has poured into China. In the first half of this year, many countries around the world implemented large-scale stimulus policies and increased leverage significantly, which will bring about a series of problems. In the second half of the year, the global economic growth rate will continue to decline, and the overall performance of the global financial market will not be too good. At the same time, China's economy is the first to recover and outshines itself. It is expected that China's economic growth will pick up in the second half of the year, and it will become one of the few countries that maintains positive economic growth. Against this background, starting from April, international capital will accelerate its inflow into China, and future influx of international capital into China will become a long-term trend.
In addition, the recent rise in China's capital market has also benefited from the demonstration effect of European and American stock markets. In the current situation of very bad European and American economies, the European and American stock markets are performing very rapidly, and even the United States has experienced a technical bull market. Relatively speaking, China has far outperformed the United States in terms of epidemic prevention and economic recovery.
Talk about the market
The general bull market may be difficult to come back
Beijing News: Many people shouted the slogan "Bull market is here". What do you think?
Li Xunlei: I don't think this round of stock market rise is a comprehensive bull market. The traditionally defined bull market where all stocks have risen comprehensively may be difficult to come back. Firstly, because a considerable portion of China’s stocks are difficult to rise again, since 2017, it has been a process in which the valuation of underperforming stocks has continued to fall. Up, 80% of stocks did not rise or even fell. "2" refers to the leading companies in the industry and stocks with good growth in emerging industries, and "8" refers to the stocks with poor performance, speculation, themes, and overvalued small and medium market capitalization.
Beijing News: How long will this round of rising market last?
Li Xunlei: This round of structural bull market started in 2017. As for how long the market can last, I am not sure to reason from a macro perspective. Looking at the performance of the stock market, we still have to return to the fundamentals. We still have to look at the performance of the economic fundamentals.
Beijing News: Do you have any concerns about the stock market surge?
Li Xunlei: This round of stock market quotations was mainly initiated by institutional investors. What I am more worried about is that if the stock market rises excessively, it will repeat the mistakes of 2015-the round of stock market rises from 2014 to 2015 is a typical "buffalo", that is, the market driven by funds. At that time, a large number of off-site allocations entered the market, and everyone came to leverage. In the second half of 2015, everyone believed that the marginal effect of the financial leverage model was declining, and that too much leverage was added. In 2016, the supply-side structural reforms began.
Beijing News: What advice do you have for investors?
Li Xunlei: I think that investors are not wrong in increasing the direction of financial asset allocation, but investors still need to invest rationally, looking for valuable, growth potential, and undervalued stocks. For example, the stocks of many head companies in traditional industries have risen a lot at present, but they are still undervalued. Investors can look for stocks in traditional industries with large market capitalization that are already the head of the industry or will become head companies. However, the market value of these undervalued stocks tends to be larger, and the pull on the Shanghai Composite Index will be more obvious, and the index has a lot of room to rise, but the performance of many stocks may not be good.
Beijing News: Looking at the longer timeline, how is China's capital market performing?
Li Xunlei: I think that in the next two or three years, China's capital market will continue to have a structural bull market. An important factor driving the structural bull market rise is that China’s global share of the economy is increasing, because the global economy is already in a recession era, and in the accelerated transformation of the Chinese economy, with the conversion of old and new kinetic energy, the development of emerging industries, The growth will be faster and the growth of traditional industries will slow down, but the market share of the leading companies will become larger and larger. In short, economic transformation will bring differentiation to enterprises-the market value of high-growth companies in emerging industries and head companies in traditional industries will increase, and the market value of non-head companies in traditional industries will increase. Small, continue to continue the "2, 8" phenomenon, where "2" is an index that drives the stock market.
Beijing News reporter Gu Zhijuan Cheng Weimiao