(Economic Observation) The Shanghai Composite Index hit the largest one-day gain in the past five years. A new round of bull market for A shares started?
China News Agency, Beijing, July 6th (Reporter Chen Kangliang) skyrocketed 5.71%!
This is the performance of China's A-share core stock index on the 6th, which is also the largest single-day increase in the index in the past five years.
In the trading day just past, A shares rose across the board. Under the leadership of the financial sector led by brokerage stocks, all industry sectors of A shares have become popular. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets exceeded 1.5 trillion yuan on the day, and had exceeded the 1 trillion yuan mark for three consecutive trading days.
The fierceness of the A-share market is evident. All the signs seem to be releasing a signal that the A-share bull market is coming. But is this really the case?
In response to the sharp rise of A shares, Gui Haoming, chief market expert of Shenwan Hongyuan Securities Research Institute, said in an interview with the China News Service that the recent continued rise in A shares is mainly due to three logics: the market's early stage is at 3000 points (Shanghai index point) Continued consolidation below, and transactions have gradually enlarged, saving up momentum; recently the central bank lowered re-loans, rediscounted interest rates to further improve market liquidity; foreign funds continued to flow into A shares through the Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect channel, buying low-value heavyweight stocks , Driving the market to be more enthusiastic and pushing stock indexes up.
In response, Shen Zhengyang, an analyst at Northeast Securities, holds a similar opinion. Shen Zhengyang pointed out that with the continued recovery of China's economy, the recent A-shares have been more enthusiastic and active, and transactions have been active. The turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets has exceeded the 1 trillion yuan mark for several consecutive trading days. Driven by incremental funds, market styles have clearly switched, and undervalued stocks that were undervalued in the first half of the year, especially in the financial and other sectors, have seen rapid growth.
There are signs that overseas funds are accelerating into A shares recently. According to the statistics of financial data service provider Wind, the net inflow of overseas funds through the Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect channel exceeded 16.4 billion yuan today, and the net inflow of the previous two trading days also exceeded 10 billion yuan.
Zhang Ting, a senior macro analyst at Geshang Wealth, believes that overseas funds have been flowing into A shares recently, mainly because China’s economic recovery is expected to be stronger than other countries, and the valuation of A shares is not expensive, adding to the global release of liquidity The interest rate is at a historically low level, and there is an “allocation of assets”. China’s high-quality assets are favored by global funds.
In terms of specific sectors, the brokerage sector led the rise of A shares on the day, rising 9.65%, and individual stocks set a daily limit. China Merchants Securities believes that the start of the current round of brokerage stocks market benefited from frequent landing of policies and continuous stimulation of news, which opened up the imagination of the securities industry. In addition, brokerage stocks showed a stagflation characteristic in the first half of the year, with strong momentum to compensate for the rise.
Faced with such a strong upward momentum in the market, many investors began to wonder whether a new round of A-share bull market has started. It is worth noting that, although the atmosphere of the market has become stronger recently, many analysts have warned of risks.
Xia Chun, chief economist of Noah Holdings, said that it is still difficult to say how long this round of A-share market will last. The current trend of A-shares is reflected by a combination of economic fundamentals and fiscal and monetary policies, but the valuation of some sectors of A-shares is still under pressure to adjust.
Gui Haoming also said that although the market volume can be significantly enlarged today, the A-shares must continue to "go bullish", and the trading volume in the later period must match and follow up. The bull market cannot be considered simply because the recent market turnover has reached more than 1 trillion yuan. .
Dong Dengxin, director of the Institute of Finance at Wuhan University of Science and Technology, also agreed. Dong Dengxin said that it may be too early to believe that the A-share market will usher in a bull market. The market should still be in the rebound stage and face greater uncertainty in the future. For example, many semi-annual reports of listed companies are about to be released. Considering the impact of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic, many companies’ performance may be impacted, thereby affecting their stock prices. On the other hand, the US stock market is facing greater adjustment pressure. This pressure may be at the end of this year or Appearing at the beginning of next year will have a big negative impact on China's A shares. But after passing the risk period of US stocks, it is expected that A-shares will usher in a 10-year "slow bull" golden period starting next year. (Finish)