(Economic Observation) Hangzhou, Dongguan "waters" the property market. Is China's new round of property market regulation coming?

　　China News Agency, Beijing, July 6 (Reporter Pang Wuji) After the central government issued more than 300 real estate bailouts or supportive policies in the first half of the year, the wind direction of the Chinese property market seems to have begun to change.

　　Recently, Hangzhou and Dongguan introduced new policies on binding real estate. For example, Hangzhou introduced a new house shake-up new policy, which stipulates a five-year sales restriction period for priority house purchases for talents. At the same time, it raises the threshold for the identification of “houses without a house” and specifies that a family can only participate in one shake-up at a time.

　　The New Deal in the Dongguan property market is mainly aimed at discouraging sales and upgrading the price limit of new houses. For example, local regulations stipulate that the project applies for pre-sales, each time the volume is not less than 30,000 square meters; within 10 days after obtaining the pre-sale certificate, all the sales houses are disclosed at one time. In terms of price limit, it is required that the price of new houses in the same area should not increase by more than 10% in three months; the price of new houses sold in installments should not be higher than 5% of the same price in the previous period.

　　The tightening policies for real estate market regulation in the two places were introduced after the real estate market significantly increased. In the first half of Hangzhou, there were 5 new housing projects with "10,000 people participating in the number-sharing", and the rate of winning new houses was very low. According to statistics, within 4 months, there are 21 projects in Hangzhou with a lottery winning rate below 5%.

　　Judging from the transaction data, the statistical data released by the CR Research Center show that since March, the Hangzhou property market has recovered rapidly, and the monthly residential transaction area is above 1 million square meters, showing a rising trend month by month, especially in June. It reached 1.95 million square meters, a new high in the past three years.

　　The prices of new houses and second-hand houses in some popular areas of Dongguan also rose significantly. It is understood that the record price of some new house types in Dongguan this year has exceeded 40,000 yuan per square meter. In the most concerned area of ​​Songshan Lake, the unit price of some real estate has stood at the threshold of 50,000 yuan per square meter.

　　Over the past four years, every time the property market has reached a stage high, there has been regulation and control of "cold water" pouring. Although this year was affected by the epidemic, the real estate market was once in a downturn, but after a round of recovery and rebound, the "tight spell" may come back.

　　In fact, tightening regulation in areas with overheated property has long been known.

　　First, the tone of regulation for housing and housing has not changed.

　　This year's government work report stated that insisting on the positioning of the house for living, not for speculation, according to the city's policy, promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. In the past few months, central authorities such as the central bank, the Ministry of Finance, and the National Bureau of Statistics have repeatedly reaffirmed their insistence on housing and housing.

　　Recently, the demand-side stimulus policies introduced in various places, including reducing the down payment ratio and loosening purchase restrictions, have been quickly withdrawn. Recently, Huailai County, Zhangjiakou City, Hebei Province was quickly rumored by the local area after news of purchase restrictions was released. According to statistics, at least 12 places including Zhumadian, Guangzhou, etc. have been loosened and regulation has been withdrawn.

　　From a deeper perspective, as China's economy transitions to high-quality development, while looking for new kinetic energy, new space, and new models for economic development, it will gradually get rid of real estate dependence. To ensure the smooth implementation of this transformation process, obviously the property market cannot be easily stimulated.

　　This has been reflected in the construction plan of Hainan Free Trade Port. The day after the release of the overall plan, Liu Cigui, secretary of the Hainan Provincial Party Committee, publicly stated that Hainan cannot be a processing plant for real estate.

　　Second, the property market quickly recovered after the epidemic.

　　Although the impact of the epidemic has not completely dissipated, most local property market transactions in May have basically returned to pre-epidemic levels. According to data released by China Index Research Institute, in June, residential transactions in the 50 cities were slightly higher than the average of the same period in the past three years. The performance of the top 100 housing companies in the first half of the year also basically returned to the level of the same period last year.

　　The market recovery means that the previous bailout and support policies are no longer necessary. Moreover, driven by relatively loose currencies, the real estate market in some cities has gradually increased. Without policy intervention, it may promote the formation of the next round of upsurge.

　　Industry experts believe that in the second half of the year, due to the city's regulatory policies, a larger scale housing tightening policy may be introduced in more overheated housing markets. (Finish)