China News Client, Beijing, July 3 (Xie Yiguan) The Shenzhen Component Index, the ChiNext Index, and the Small and Medium Board Index entered the technical bull market in June, and entered July. The A-share investment passion continues to burn.
"The Shanghai index'Silianyang' returned to 3100 points; the trillion-dollar turnover in the stock market reappeared in a few months; the balance of the two financings exceeded 10 billion for several days; foreign capital reappeared for more than 10 billion in consecutive days to raise funds; Set off a daily limit."
When the bull market first indicators appear one by one, is the bull market really coming?
Shanghai index K chart.
Shenzhen's three major indexes enter the technical bull market
A round of strong rebound of A shares started from growth stocks. On June 9, the GEM index rebounded 20% from the lowest point of March 24, 1817.55 points. On June 16, the small and medium board index rose from the low point of March 24. 20%; the Shenzhen Component Index rose more than 20% from the low of March 24 on June 19.
According to the stock market technology theory, a 20% increase will enter a technical bull market, and the three major Shenzhen indexes have entered a technical bull market in June.
On July 3, as the Shanghai Stock Exchange ushered in the "four consecutive suns", the Shanghai Stock Exchange closed on the 3rd compared with the lowest point of 2649.80 on March 19, up 19.1%, which is also close to the technical bull market; and the constituent stocks include the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets. The CSI 300 index of stocks has risen by 26.15% from the current low.
Does this mean that A shares have entered a real bull market?
"Technical bull markets are fundamentally different from true bull markets. Index-level bull markets are the result of multiple factor resonances, and the core driving factor is the continued improvement of fundamentals." Cai Zhiwei, Rongtong GEM Index Fund Manager, said.
Cai Zhiwei said that in order to judge whether a round of technical bull market can finally get out of a real bull market, it still needs comprehensive analysis from multiple dimensions such as macro environment, policy environment, corporate profitability, and valuation level.
Four leading indicators of the bull market
——"Bull Market Pioneer" brokerage " Drag Car " playing daily limit
On July 3, the major financial sector continued its strong rise, and securities stocks continued to rise and fall, and 14 securities stocks such as Zhongtai Securities, China Merchants Securities, CITIC Securities, etc. rose daily limits. According to Wind statistics, the overall brokerage sector rose 9.38% this week.
On the 3rd, the brokerage sector rose and stopped rising.
"On June 16, the valuation of the brokerage sector was at a historical low. As of July 2, the brokerage sector has risen 10% this year, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index by 4%, and outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 6%." Everbright Securities analyst Wang Yifeng pointed out.
Earlier, in many rounds of the bull market, brokerage stocks were the first to rise, and then led other large sectors to rotate. Therefore, brokerage stocks were regarded as "bull market pioneers." The recent surge in brokerage stocks has also made the atmosphere of the A-share bull market even stronger.
-Trading was fierce, and the turnover of the two cities returned to trillion after an interval of 4 months
The market sentiment is high, and the turnover of the two cities continues to increase, which adds another fire to the bull market.
After the trading volume of the two cities approached 750 billion yuan on June 30, the trading volume of the two cities exceeded 900 billion on July 1, a new high of 3.5 months. On July 2nd, the trading volume of the two cities again increased significantly, surpassing trillions in 4 months. On July 3, the turnover of the two cities continued to break trillions, helping the A-share market to gain strength.
"The market sentiment is very active, and the market mainly follows the two main lines of low-value stagflation sector supplements and mid-term report performance pre-increase." Xie Chao, chief strategy analyst of China Everbright Securities, believes that on the one hand, the pharmaceutical and technology sectors rose more than the second quarter. Large, there is a need for funds to cash in earnings; on the other hand, the current real estate, financial and other sectors are at historically low valuations, and the price/performance ratio is relatively high. The margin of investment safety margins brought by the low valuations superimposes the rising demand of the sector, making the low valuations stagflation. Favored by funds.
——The balance of the two financings has increased by more than 10 billion
In addition to the continuous turnover of two trillion yuan in the two cities, the balance of financing and securities lending in the two cities has also continued to expand above the 1.1 trillion yuan mark.
As of July 2, the balance of A-share financing and securities lending was 1,190.315 billion yuan, an increase of 14.038 billion yuan from the previous trading day of 1,176.277 billion yuan, of which the long-term financing balance was 115.511 billion yuan, an increase of 12.850 billion yuan from the previous day.
It is worth mentioning that in recent days, the balance of the two financial balances has increased by more than 10 billion yuan in a single day, and the net inflow in June was nearly 100 billion yuan, releasing a strong bullish signal.
In terms of individual stocks, a total of 1572 individual stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen have financing funds to buy. Judging from the proportion of financing purchases in the total transaction amount on that day, a total of 197 stocks accounted for more than 20% of financing purchases, of which Kangxin New Materials, Yonganhang and Dun'an Environment ranked the top three.
According to Wind statistics, from June 29 to July 1, the financing balance of 43 stocks increased by more than 10%, the latest financing balance exceeded 400 million yuan, and accounted for more than 1% of the market value of circulation.
——The layout of foreign capital in advance, tens of billions of dollars in two days
Optimistic about the trend of A shares, northbound funds, which have always been called "smart funds", are also constantly rushing to raise funds.
On July 2, the net inflow of northbound funds for the whole day was 17.116 billion yuan, a new high since June 19. On the 3rd, the net inflow of northbound funds exceeded 10 billion yuan throughout the day, reaching 13.194 billion yuan. Among them, the net inflow of Shanghai Stock Connect was 8.041 billion yuan and the net inflow of Shenzhen Stock Connect was 5.153 billion yuan.
In the past 30 days, northbound funds flowed.
It's not just rushing to raise money in the past two days. Since the outbreak of China's epidemic has stabilized, northbound funds have started a "buy, buy, buy" model. In March, the net inflow of northbound funds reached 157.790 billion yuan. In contrast, the total net inflow of northbound funds has only reached 148.460 billion yuan so far this year.
"Regardless of external risk release factors, it is expected that the net foreign inflow of A shares in July is expected to reach 50 billion yuan." CITIC Securities pointed out that although the first phase of the inclusion of the three major international index companies in A shares has been completed, passive capital allocation is temporarily announced For a while, but active foreign capital is expected to take over.
A new bull market is coming?
Regarding the subsequent performance of the A-share market, Dongguan Securities believes that with the gradual implementation of various policies in the second half of the year, the continuous advancement of capital market reforms, the improvement of market profitability and the recovery of market confidence, it is expected that the market will be cohesive in the second half of 2020. Difficulties, continue the shock rebound pattern.
"The initial stage of the bull market is the shock market, the more shock the more optimistic, the stock market funds are becoming more and more, unless the epidemic brings a crisis like the Great Depression, otherwise the rate of inflow of household funds into the stock market will become more and more Quickly, the index hub still has room to continue to rise." New era securities analyst Fan Jituo said that in the short term, the third quarter can continue to be optimistic, and the fourth quarter needs to verify the epidemic situation and the long-term economic pattern again.
Information figure: Stockholders in a securities business department are concerned about the market trend. China News Service reporter Zhang Langshe
Taken together, many brokerages believe that the fundamentals of the upward trend of A shares in the second half of the year are expected to be confirmed, and a wave of bull markets is expected.
The CITIC Securities strategy team believes that the three major factors that drive the restoration of fundamentals, the increased attractiveness of A-shares in global allocation, and the transmission of loose macro liquidity to the stock market will drive A-shares upward. A-shares will start the "small well-being" in the second half of the year.
Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Open Source Fund, said that the Shanghai index is expected to stand 3,000 points in the second half of the year, and there is room for further expansion. In the context of the large transfer of household savings and the loose liquidity imposed by the central bank on low interest rates, the A-share market is expected to shift from a partial bull market to a full bull market.
"The epidemic has not hindered the explosion of explosive funds, the demand for residential asset allocation is being released, the potential for A-share incremental game exists objectively, and the bull market is building the foundation." Fu Jingtao, chief analyst of Shen Wanhongyuan strategy said.
In the view of Fu Jingtao, the fundamental trend of A shares in the second half of the year is expected to be confirmed. The new cycle may be expected to start fermentation in stages. In addition, in the second half of the year, scientific and technological growth will regain aggression, and the fundamentals will bottom out. The board registration system has gradually turned to strategic optimism, and at least one wave of "very bullish" rebounds can be expected. (Finish)