Zhongxin Client Beijing July 1st Question: Mid-Year Observation: Moving Forward! China's economy accelerates "return"
Reporter Li Jinlei
In 2020, the new crown epidemic has hit the world hard, and the Chinese economy is no exception.
Under the impact of the epidemic, the giant ship stalled as if it had fallen from the top of the wave. In the first quarter, GDP fell by 6.8% year-on-year, the lowest since the quarterly GDP was announced in 1992. In addition, consumption, investment, and export "troika" all experienced negative growth, a year-on-year decrease of more than 10%...
Faced with shocks and changes, China offered a series of extraordinary measures. As the prevention and control of the epidemic is getting better, China's economy is firmly at the helm, resuming production and resuming business and resuming the market. By the middle of the year, a huge economy with a livelihood of 1.4 billion people was breaking through the epidemic and accelerating its recovery.
Let's first look at several sets of data recently released.
Manufacturing PMI trend. From the National Bureau of Statistics
The manufacturing PMI has exceeded the glory line for 4 consecutive months.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in June, China's manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) was 50.9%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, and it was above the 50% line for four consecutive months.
The PMI index is the leading indicator of economic monitoring. 50% is the waterline of glory and dryness. When the PMI is higher than 50%, it reflects economic expansion. Under normal circumstances, when PMI changes in the same direction for more than three consecutive months, it reflects the trending changes in economic operation and shows that the manufacturing industry is recovering steadily.
For the first time this year, profits of industrial enterprises are increasing.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in May, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in the country reached 582.34 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.3% year-on-year in April and an increase of 6.0%.
The profits of state-owned enterprises basically recovered to the same period last year.
Statistics from the Ministry of Finance show that the national profits of state-owned and state-holding enterprises increased in May from the previous month, and have basically returned to the same level as last year. In May, the total profit of state-owned enterprises increased by 251.1% month-on-month, returning to 94.5% of the level of the same period last year.
Let's look at some data released in mid-June.
Market sales have improved for three consecutive months.
In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods fell by 2.8% year-on-year, which was 4.7 percentage points lower than that of the previous month. The digital economy continues to heat up, and "live streaming" is extremely hot. From January to May, the online retail sales of physical goods increased by 11.5% year-on-year, an increase of 2.9 percentage points from January to April.
New products are growing rapidly. In May, the output of 3D printing equipment, smart watches, integrated circuit wafers, charging piles and other products increased by more than 70% year-on-year.
The decline in investment has narrowed for three consecutive months.
From January to May, national fixed asset investment (excluding farm households) decreased by 6.3% year-on-year, which was 4.0 and 9.8 percentage points narrower than those from January to April and the first quarter. The growth rate of investment in high-tech industries and social fields has changed from negative to positive.
Unemployment rates and price increases have fallen.
The unemployment rate in the national urban survey in May was 5.9%, down 0.1 percentage point from April. In May, the national consumer price (CPI) rose by 2.4% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from April.
More than a thousand Chinese and foreign models were unveiled at the 2020 Chongqing International Auto Show. Photo by Chen Yuan
The car market is on fire.
In May, the retail sales of automotive commodities above the designated size increased by 3.5% year-on-year, the growth rate was the second highest since May 2018.
The property market is warming up.
In May, housing demand was further released, and real estate market prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities rose slightly. In May, medium and long-term loans, mainly personal mortgage loans, increased by 466.2 billion yuan, a significant increase from 438.9 billion yuan in April.
Although the data is boring, the feeling is real.
Fireworks came.
It can be felt that there are more cars on the road, the traffic is reappearing on the street, and traffic jams are starting. There are more people on the bus and subway, and more people are shopping and going to the restaurant;
The courier began to deliver to the door, there were more children playing and playing, the community began to be decorated, the roar of the machine came from the construction site across the road, and the sound of steel collision;
...
All the scenes made people sigh, and the fireworks returned.
The “night economy” in Changsha gradually recovered. Citizens travel to taste food on summer evenings. Photo by Yang Huafeng
Whether it is from the macro or the micro, people can feel the breath of China's economic recovery and the vitality and pulse of recovery.
Fu Linghui, a spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics, said that China's economy continues to show signs of recovery, generally in line with expectations.
Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, told reporters at Chinanews.com that a series of indicators have rebounded, indicating that China's epidemic prevention and control trend is improving, and counter-cyclical policies are gradually exerting strength. Both ends of the supply and demand continue to pick up. On the whole, China's economic recovery is generally improving, and the overall economic situation is improving.
Although the Chinese economy is accelerating its recovery and some indicators continue to improve, it cannot be blindly optimistic.
After all, the Chinese economy has not returned to normal levels.
Fu Linghui reminded that although the main indicators continued to improve in May, many indicators were lower than the same period of the previous year from the month, and most indicators were still declining from the cumulative point, indicating that the loss of the epidemic impact still needs to be compensated, and the economy has not returned to normal levels. .
Data Map: A real estate building just completed. China News Agency reporter Zhang Binshe
The difficult first half of the year has finally passed. Looking forward to the second half, can China's economy continue this recovery?
According to the latest report of the World Economic Outlook released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on June 24, the global GDP growth rate is expected to be -4.9% in 2020, which was previously expected to be -3%. China's economic growth is expected to be 1% in 2020, the only one of the world's major economies that has achieved positive growth.
China's continued economic recovery is also conditional, foundational, and confident.
According to Fu Linghui's analysis, from the later stage, there is a good foundation and conditions for promoting sustained economic recovery.
First, the steady recovery of the economy is obvious. Resumption of work, production, and resumption of the market are powerful and effective. The industrial service industry has achieved growth. The decline in consumer investment has continued to narrow. Market expectations are generally stable.
Second, the effects of macro policies continue to show. This year's new burden reduction for enterprises is expected to exceed 2.5 trillion yuan, the issue of 1 trillion yuan of special anti-epidemic government bonds, the increase of 1 trillion yuan in fiscal deficit, and increased support for monetary credit. These policies will continue to support later economic recovery.
The third is that the new kinetic energy continues to grow. The digital economy is fully accelerating, intelligent and technological products are growing rapidly, remote offices, online education, online consultation and other rapid expansions, new models such as unmanned retail and live broadcasts are emerging, which will effectively support economic development.
The resilience of the Chinese economy can be seen from two things:
First, the epidemic has not stopped the pace of opening up. On June 24, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Commerce announced the 2020 version of the negative list of foreign investment access. The negative list has been further reduced, and heavy measures such as liberalizing the ratio of foreign shares in commercial vehicle manufacturing have been liberalized, demonstrating China's promotion of a higher level of opening up. China’s pace will not slow down, and China’s policy of using foreign capital will not change.
Second, foreign investment continues to look good. The Canton Fair is known as the "barometer" and "wind vane" of China's foreign trade. The recently closed 127th Canton Fair has nearly 26,000 domestic and foreign companies participating, attracting overseas buyers from 217 countries and regions to register for the exhibition. The distribution of origins is a historical record.
Affected by the epidemic, the Canton Fair was held in the “cloud” for the first time in 63 years, allowing Chinese and foreign merchants to place orders and do business without leaving the house. China News Agency reporter Chen Jimin
Recently, Volkswagen of Germany has invested about 2 billion euros in Anhui, and Nestlé has invested 730 million yuan in Tianjin to build a new production line. This shows that as a world market, China's economic prospects are still optimistic about foreign investors.
CITIC Securities Research pointed out that China's economy has shown a trend of rapid repair. Despite the continued pressure on external demand, investment has taken the lead and consumption has continued to rebound. It is expected that the overall economic operation will be significantly better in the second quarter than in the first quarter and in the second half of the year. The "V" trend in the first half of the year.
Xu Hongcai, deputy director of the Economic Policy Committee of the China Policy Science Research Association, judged that the Chinese economy in the second half of the year will certainly be better than the economy in the first half of the year, and the economy is growing positively throughout the year. The annual economic growth rate is expected to be 1%-2%.
Peng Wensheng, chief economist of CICC, analyzed that the global economy recovered gradually in the second half of the year under the benchmark assumption that there was no large-scale rebound in the epidemic. China is faster than Europe and the United States. It is expected that China's economic growth will rebound sharply, which may rise to about 6% in the fourth quarter and will rise further next year. (Finish)