"Number" says consumption: the lagging demand is "cashing out"
Our reporter Chang Xiaoyu
During the Dragon Boat Festival just passed, commercial departments across Liaoning Province actively organized enterprises to carry out various promotional activities to boost consumer confidence and promote consumption recovery. On June 28, the relevant person in charge of the Department of Commerce of Liaoning Province stated that with the deepening of normalization of epidemic prevention and the implementation of a series of measures to promote consumption, the sales of goods in Liaoning Province continued to fall for the first time after the Spring Festival and the "May Day" and other holidays this year. Achieve positive growth. According to the monitoring data of the Department of Commerce of Liaoning Province, from June 25 to 27, the sales of 80 key monitored retail enterprises in Liaoning Province increased by 1.1% year-on-year.
In order to hedge the impact of the epidemic on consumption, since the beginning of this year, various localities have actively launched various consumption promotion policies and concentrated promotional activities, coupled with the continuous growth of new momentum, the digital economy continues to heat up, and the consumer market can continue to improve.
From the perspective of policy effects, Liu Xiangdong, deputy director of the Economic Research Department of the China International Economic Exchange Center, told reporters from the "Securities Daily" that at present, various places have launched various consumer coupons, consumer discounts, and consumer facilitation services. To promote consumption replenishment and consumption release. For example, "May 5th Shopping Festival", "618 Shopping Festival" and other promotional activities "come together" to stimulate continued consumer market activity; the cultural tourism market is gradually picking up, and ushered in large-scale passenger traffic; as market confidence increases, services Industry demand also continues to be released. All of this reflects that the epidemic prevention and control situation has initially shown signs of continuous improvement, the recovery of production and living order has accelerated, and the consumer market has become increasingly active.
Since the outbreak, domestic online consumption has been extremely hot. According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the growth rate of online retail sales of physical goods continued to accelerate. From January to May, the national online sales of physical goods increased by 11.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 2.9 percentage points faster than that of January-April; the online retail sales of physical goods accounted for 24.3% of the total retail sales of social consumer goods, an increase from the same period last year 5.4 percentage points. According to data released by the State Post Bureau, the volume of express delivery business in May increased by 41% year-on-year, and the revenue of express delivery business increased by 25%.
"Behind the data is the hotness of new consumer formats such as live broadcast, online grouping, fresh e-commerce, home service, and the new kinetic energy they inject into the consumer market." Fu Yifu, a senior researcher at Suning Financial Research Institute, accepted. "Securities Daily" reporter said in an interview.
Fu Yifu further analyzed that, in theory, the rapid development of new consumer formats can effectively match the consumer demand side with the product service side, and reduce the information asymmetry between supply and demand through the information aggregation effect, which greatly reduces the operator The cost between sales and consumer purchases not only enhances the consumer experience, but also promotes the quality, efficiency and cost reduction of production, distribution, operation and other aspects of the operation, which in turn stimulates the public's willingness to consume and potential for consumption, driving the consumer market. increase.
In addition, while the intensity of new kinetic energy for online consumption is not reduced, offline consumption scenarios such as attractions, restaurants, and hotels have also returned to the public's vision, and many consumers' delayed consumer demand during the epidemic has also begun to "cash out."
Fu Yifu said, "According to the data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, passenger car sales in May increased by 7% year-on-year, compared with a decrease of 2.6% in April; according to data released by the China Automobile Dealers Association, passenger cars in May Comprehensive sales increased by 1.8% year-on-year, compared with a decline of 5.6% in April. In addition, in the Dragon Boat Festival just passed, a number of economic data have performed well, such as a total of 48.809 million domestic tourists received nationwide and a cumulative domestic tourism income of 122.8 100 million yuan. These all confirm the recovery of the consumer market. With the gradual release of policies, holidays, and new kinetic energy effects, the pace of recovery in China's consumer market is expected to be accelerated, and the prospects are promising."
However, after all, the process of recovery in consumption needs to be gradual, what other measures should be introduced to help?
Liu Xiangdong suggested that it is necessary to promote the recovery of consumption, especially under the normal situation of epidemic prevention and control, it is still difficult for some service industries to fully recover. Therefore, it is necessary to continue to introduce detailed policies to start consumption according to local conditions; at the same time, it is necessary to provide more convenient Service guidance, guide consumers to conduct consumption activities in a safe and orderly manner, in order to reinvigorate consumer confidence and smooth the consumption cycle. (Securities Daily)