Chinanews.com client Beijing, June 29 (Peng Jingru) In mid-summer June, Beijing's rental market is in "Summer Resort".
Recently, the decline in rent has become a key word in the Beijing housing rental market. Faced with the dilemma of the traditional renting season "not prosperous", in addition to the misery of renting agents, graduates and tenants also want to talk about rest, is it not "not fragrant" for rent to fall?
Graduates: Difficult to see a room, difficult to move in
"I don't know if the rent has dropped. The next big problem is that I can't move in." Cui Min (pseudonym) is a college student who just graduated this year. She said that she didn't pay attention to the rent price before, and she didn't really feel the drop in rent. There is a high risk in the vicinity of the employment unit. The community will not let in. She is about to join the job and face the problem of not having a house to live in.
"I thought it was hard enough to find a job, and anyone who wanted to rent a house was so difficult." Cui Min said.
A real estate agency store in Xicheng District, Beijing is in operation. Photo by Peng Jingru
58 The "Employment Report for College Graduates in 2020" released by the same city and Anjuke recently showed that 40% of the graduates in the survey said they have found a job, and more than 50% of the graduates are still on the way to find a job, and another 3% Of graduates continue to study further. The report also shows that currently 77% of graduates are single, and they spend more energy on graduation defense and job search.
Graduates in 2020 must not have imagined that in addition to the “big test” for employment, the “extra test” of renting houses will now be ushered in.
"I added several WeChat groups for renting, as well as intermediaries on various platforms." Cui Min said that at the beginning, there was no experience in renting a house, and I wanted to compare it. But because people are not in Beijing, I can only ask my classmates to help her see the house. "But some communities in Xicheng are forbidden to watch and sign contracts, which is too difficult for me."
According to the Survey Report of Graduates in 2020, because some schools return to school late and graduates spend a long time at home, 27.6% of them have rented a house, and 35.5% of graduates are still looking for a house.
"I still think of Beijing to look at the house on the ground and then rent it. If the unit's entry requirements are early, I can only go to other areas to rent for a few months and then make plans." In Cui Min's view, all those who can provide dormitories today are " In other people’s units, she hopes to be able to join the job later to solve these problems.
Tenant: Renewing a lease is worse than changing a lease
Under the topic of "Beijing rent decline", some netizens questioned: "Where did the rent fall? Why did I not encounter such a good thing?" If the renewal of the rent is not reduced, it has risen by 30 yuan, which is really difficult!"
"What, really, am I in Beijing? Why did I go up by 100!" "I went up by 50." "I went up by 200!" The bids came and went, just like the auction site.
Zhang Shang (pseudonym), whose rental contract expired at the end of June, told Chinanews.com, it seems that the rental price of the renewal contract has risen by 3%. "But the price of the new lease nearby has indeed dropped. I was thinking of renewing the lease rather than changing the lease. I was afraid it would be difficult to move and move in during the epidemic.
A property in Beijing that is waiting to be rented. Photo courtesy of interviewees
"At present, my customers here are all renewed, and renewal has a 3%-5% increase." A rental agency told Chinanews that renewal still has to follow the platform's procedures and rules. The communities in the street are not allowed to sign in, and many customers choose to renew the contract.
He said, "When you can apply for a pass, if the renewal price is not as good as finding a new house to sign a contract, then it is recommended to find a house. There are many houses now, you can find a leak."
Chinanews.com found through the renting platform's quotation that, taking the houses on Exhibition Road in Xicheng District of Beijing as an example, the prices of some houses have indeed been lowered. Many renting agents put words such as "end of month promotion", "super low-price shared rent, whole rent" and "service fee reduction" in the circle of friends.
"Basic prices have been lowered, and some houses have been lowered several times." Axi rental agency (a pseudonym), a platform rental agency, sent a one-bedroom house to Zhongxin.com with a rent of 5,200 yuan/month. "This is 5500 When the yuan came down, there was a set of similar area nearby, and the decoration was almost as low as 4,900 yuan. When there is no epidemic, the cheapest one-bedroom here is 5,300 yuan."
"Now demand is shrinking, and housing leasing companies are seeing price wars in some regions in order to grab limited customers." Zhang Dawei, chief analyst at Centaline Real Estate, said that new customers have solved the problem of vacant housing, which is why new leases are cheaper.
Intermediary: only signed 5 orders a month
As with rents, there is also income from rental agencies.
"Usually 8,000 yuan, the epidemic efforts only have 5,000 yuan." Aixi said that normally 15 tickets can be signed during the normal month, but there are only 5 during the epidemic. If the community is not allowed to see the house or stay, the situation will be even more bleak.
"But now there are video reservations, and several customers are coming to Beijing in July, and they will be settled without on-site inspection." Aixi said.
58 President of the Anju Guest House Research Institute Zhang Bo told Chinanews that online viewing is the future direction and trend. With the continuous advancement of VR technology, the difference between online viewing and offline viewing will be further reduced. Compared with buying a house, the online rental path is more efficient, and more people will choose to book a house online.
Screenshot of the VR viewing page of a rental platform.
"Anyway, someone who makes an online reservation definitely makes me feel better." Aixi said that he missed the Spring Festival stall and thought he could breathe after the graduation season, but unexpectedly there was an epidemic in the Xinfadi market in Beijing, which also poured into the rental market. A pot of cold water.
Zhang Dawei said that the rental market generally has two peak periods, after the Spring Festival and in June of the graduation season, and the two rounds of epidemics are superimposed in Beijing, exactly at the time of the peak period of previous years, so the impact is greater. "The epidemic is definitely the biggest reason. The inflow of foreign population is reduced, and the inflow of normal floating population is also small. The decrease in demand will definitely lead to a decline in the number of contracts."
According to data from the Shell Institute, on January 24, after the response level of public health emergencies in Beijing was adjusted to level one, the leasing market transaction volume showed a cliff-like decline, and the transaction volume fell to the lowest level in the third and fourth weeks of January , Only 3.7% of the previous two weeks. On April 30, after the response level was lowered to level two, the Beijing leasing market continued to climb in volume in May, up 27.3% from April.
However, as Beijing's response level was again raised to level 2 on June 16, Beijing's rental market heat again showed a rapid cooling, with weekly volume falling 31% month-on-month.
"The income depends on the situation, now just don't be laid off, the job is really hard to find." An agent said with emotion.
"If rents keep falling, why do you still buy a house?"
"I have been looking for more houses recently, and I don't know if I can get better in July." The rental agency, Aixi, is not expecting the next market to pick up.
Zhang Dawei said that at present it is unlikely. "Because of the uncertainty of the epidemic, a large number of graduates have not returned to school, and the number of graduates contracted by the unit has also decreased. This has led to a significant reduction in the rental market."
It is worth noting that it is not only Beijing that has fallen in rents.
According to the latest data released by the Housing Big Data Group of the Academy of Economics and Social Strategy of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, rents in core cities continued to decline in May, and housing rents in the four first-tier cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen all fell.
The rent index of the first-tier cities released by the Housing Big Data Group of the Academy of Social and Economic Strategies, Academy of Social Sciences.
So, is it only the epidemic that affects rent? Can the rental market pick up after the outbreak?
According to Zhang Dawei’s analysis, in addition to the reasons for the epidemic, on the one hand, long-term rental apartment companies have seized a large number of houses in the past few years, which has overdrawn the development of the market. No, the supply of housing is at a high level, and when combined, there has been a recent downward adjustment of the market."
"On the other hand, it has something to do with the supply of new houses in Beijing. Newly built limited-price houses, restricted-competitive houses, and common property houses have gradually started to enter the market. Beijing’s foreign population control is better, so market demand has been Diluted."
"The balance between supply and demand is the main factor affecting rents. From the perspective of Beijing's leasing market this year, due to the epidemic, there has been no rapid increase in demand for centralized leasing after the Spring Festival. At the same time, due to factors such as the expansion of graduate enrollment this year, the pre-season rental Demand growth is also weaker than in previous years, so rents in core cities have shown a general downward trend." Zhang Bo told Zhongxin.com.
In Zhang Bo's view, the impetus of the graduation season for the rental market cannot be ignored. Although this year, due to factors such as the expansion of graduate enrollment, or the overall number of graduates has decreased, from the absolute number, it is still possible to form a rental market Short-term thrust, so the rental market is expected to pick up in the third quarter.
"If the rent has been falling, why do you still buy a house?" Some people said that in the face of high house prices and current low rents, the desire to buy a house has been greatly reduced.
"A bed in a big city, or a suite in a small city", how would you choose? (Finish)