INTERVIEW
"Fewer flights", "smaller and less full planes" ... What will the future of air transport look like after the coronavirus crisis? For now, the time has come for a patient restart with the reopening of Orly airport, in France, and the resumption of a few connections in several continents of the world. For the specialized journalist Michel Polacco, who is also a pilot, "the supply is very low" currently and the levels of attendance before the crisis will not be found for several years, he explains on Saturday evening on Europe 1.
Companies "will lose money"
Orly Airport reopened on Friday, but with only 10% of its usual activity. "Passengers must have the right to go to planes and they must not be afraid to do so, most international lines are not open", lists Michel Polacco to explain the very slow restart. "Toulouse Airport announces four flights per week from EasyJet to Orly and four flights per week from Air France to Charles de Gaulle. There is nothing to splurge on. In normal times, there is a dozen flights a day to Paris from Toulouse. "
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According to the specialist journalist, "there are regulations that are loosening, but not yet sufficiently loose" to allow the airline industry to regain its colors. "Most companies need to have 70% filling and the low cost even manage to exceed 90%," he continues. "Today, we are between 40% and 50%. All the companies that reopen lines will lose money. They are waiting for passengers to knock on the door."
Half fewer passengers in 2020?
Michel Polacco also forecasts stronger growth at the beginning of July, without managing to return to the usual activity: "We should have 125 flights a day in mid-July, against 600 in normal times." And this very slow restart in the aviation sector should largely affect the year 2020: "We were at 4.7 billion passengers expected in 2020 against 4.4 billion in 2019, with an increase of around 5%. The whole system was growing. We hope to transport 2 billion to 2.5 billion passengers in 2020, if it starts again. "
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But when will the airline sector, which is widely criticized for its negative impact on the environment, recover its dynamism? "At the beginning, we thought it would take 10 years to rebuild. Now, we are much more optimistic because we feel that the states and the shareholders are helping the companies," says Michel Polacco. "The passengers want to move and we think that in two or three years, we will be back to something almost bearable."