ANALYSIS
The "worst" of the economic crisis caused by the coronavirus epidemic in the euro area is "probably past", said Friday the President of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde. It is the first time in months that the monetary institute has shown optimism, even cautious, on the issue. Europe 1 explains why.
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An earthquake with uncertain replies
If Christine Lagarde insisted on the fact that the recovery will be "incomplete" and "uneven" and that it will "transform" the economy, her optimism however contrasts with the somber picture drawn up on Thursday by the International Monetary Fund, which sees in Particularly the countries of the euro zone undergo a severe recession this year (-10.2%), direct consequence of the paralysis of the economy to contain the pandemic of Covid-19 which led him to plan his forecasts significantly.
What is certain in any case is that the shock has passed. If you have to take a picture, the one that best fits the situation is that of a huge earthquake. The tremor has passed, it is behind us. But there are still aftershocks whose strength is not really known. For example, how will the United States recover in the coming weeks? Or worse, the social plans that are starting to multiply, including in France.
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This crisis will transform the economy
Once the tremor has passed, everything is devastated. So you have to rebuild. It generates activity, growth, and that's what's happening right now. We see that it goes back into the trade. "What is very special is that, for once, monetary and budgetary policies have worked together" to curb the economic impact of the virus, welcomed the former boss of the IMF. Next year, France could recover two-thirds of the growth lost this year. But it will not be enough. It will take years to erase this crisis.
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But what is certain is that this crisis will transform the economy and surely finally accelerate the energy transition. At the end of the crisis, the economy will have changed, "airlines, hotels and the leisure sector" developing in a "different format", while "new industries" will emerge, said Christine Lagarde.