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It is a small improvement on the ravaged front of the employment by weather of coronavirus: the number of unemployed decreased by 3.3% in May, that is 150.000 registered in category A in less, according to the figures of Pôle emploi published Thursday . This fall, which is explained by the return of many people to a partial activity, should not however mean that unemployment is falling back sustainably in our country, with the second half of 2020 which promises to be extremely degraded. Explanations.
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The difficulties encountered by many companies in the spring should soon result in many job losses: "The layoff plans are likely to come in the coming months because the situation of many companies is very delicate", explains Mathieu Plane , economist at the French Observatory of Economic Conditions, on Europe 1, Thursday noon.
"Extremely complicated" situation in the fall
"The question arises for the next six months: how to limit this hemorrhage of job destruction and unemployment? In the fall, the situation will be extremely complicated," continues the economist. The Minister of Economy Bruno Le Maire notably mentioned the figure of 800,000 destruction in the coming months, while the industry alone fears to lose 400,000 jobs. "We underestimate the harshness of what is before us," warns a top minister with Europe 1.
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As in March and April, the first affected by the slowdown, this time lasting in the economy, should be the most precarious, fears Mathieu Plane: "Jobs and fixed-term and temporary workers are the adjustment variable for companies in case of difficulty. " And in the longer term, "the flexibility sought by companies creates a lot of social hardship for the people who are being laid off". The drop in category A job seekers (without any activity) observed in May should therefore not be confirmed in the coming months.
A new device to save businesses?
To avoid a lasting rise in unemployment, the government has launched a long-term partial unemployment scheme: as of July 1, this more advantageous tool than "classic" partial unemployment will allow companies in difficulty to limit the working time of their employees. The resulting drop in wages will be compensated by the State up to 84%.