The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) estimates that the Spanish economy fell by 14% during the second quarter of the year, affected by hibernation decreed to curb the coronavirus pandemic .
The agency uses an integrated forecast model for this analysis, with which it evaluates the behavior of the economy in the short term. The model uses public indicators to anticipate the quarterly evolution of the GDP, but this time the analysts of the organization have had to modify the model to adapt it to the sharp falls that have occurred in all the indicators in recent months, especially those related to the employment, such as Social Security affiliation. The re-estimation of the models used by AIReF is "conservative" and for this reason, with results from June 18, the downward impact has been corrected, going from a fall of 18% to a definitive 14%.
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