On June 22, the People's Bank of China authorized the National Interbank Interbank Lending Center to announce that the June 22, 2020 loan market quoted interest rate (LPR) is: 3.85% for 1-year LPR and 4.65% for LPR over 5 years, and The offer in May remained unchanged.
On June 18, the central bank launched a 70 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, in which the 14-day reverse repurchase winning interest rate was 2.35%, a 20BP decrease from the previous period, and the winning bid was 70 billion yuan.
Chen Ji, a senior researcher at the Bank of Communications Financial Research Center, analyzed that the reverse repurchase rate adjustment once again shows the central bank's attitude to "fix" the market interest rate term structure steadily. The latest MLF operating rate has not been adjusted, but the trend of continuing to guide LPR down to the benefit of physical enterprises remains unchanged.
The executive meeting of the State Council held on June 17 proposed to promote the financial system to make reasonable profits of 1.5 trillion yuan to various enterprises throughout the year, and at the same time comprehensively use tools such as RRR cuts and refinancing to maintain reasonable and sufficient market liquidity and increase efforts to solve financing. Difficult to alleviate the pressure of corporate funds.
Specifically, this meeting once again conveyed the signal of loose policy:
First, seize the key of reasonable profit-making, protect market players, and stabilize the economic fundamentals. Through a series of policies such as guiding loan interest rates and bond interest rates downward, issuing preferential interest rate loans, implementing deferred principal and interest payments for small and medium-sized enterprise loans, supporting the issuance of small and micro-enterprise unsecured credit loans, and reducing bank charges, the financial system will be promoted throughout the year. All kinds of enterprises reasonably make a profit of 1.5 trillion yuan.
The second is to comprehensively use tools such as RRR cuts and re-loans to maintain a reasonable and sufficient market liquidity, increase efforts to solve financing difficulties, and ease the pressure on corporate funds. The increase in RMB loans and social financing for the whole year exceeded the previous year.
The third is to follow the laws of the market and improve the policy tools and related mechanisms for direct funds to enterprises. In accordance with the requirements of guarantee and control, ensure that the new financial funds mainly flow to the manufacturing industry, the general service industry, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, give better play to the rescue and rescue, "send the carbon in the snow" effect, prevent capital deviation and "idling", and prevent financial risks.
The fourth is to enhance the capabilities and motivation of financial services for small, medium and micro enterprises. Reasonably supplement the capital of small and medium banks. Supervise banks to improve the internal evaluation and incentive mechanism to increase the weight of inclusive finance in the evaluation. Increase efforts to write off non-performing loans. It is strictly prohibited to attach unreasonable conditions when issuing loans. Make sure that the actual financing costs of market entities have decreased significantly and the difficulty of loans has been further reduced.
Market participants believe that, in most cases, the National Standing Committee will mention the RRR cut, and there will be a RRR cut within two weeks. On the other hand, large-scale issuance of government bonds such as anti-epidemic special government bonds also requires liquidity support to be reduced.
On June 15, the central bank issued an announcement saying that in order to maintain the reasonable and sufficient liquidity of the banking system, the 200 billion yuan medium-term loan facility (MLF) operation was carried out on the same day, with a one-year term, the winning bid rate was 2.95%, and the interest rate was the same as the previous time. It is also the MLF winning bid rate that has remained unchanged for two consecutive months.
On the morning of June 18, the central bank issued an announcement that in order to maintain stable liquidity at the end of the half year, on June 18, a 120 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation was carried out through interest rate tendering, including 50 billion yuan for 7 days and 70 billion yuan 14 For a one-day period, the 7-day winning bid rate is 2.20%, and the 14-day winning bid rate is 2.35%. The winning interest rates for the last 7-day and 14-day reverse repurchase were 2.20% and 2.55% respectively.
According to the analysis of Guohai's solid income research report, considering the impact of the good news, the central bank will most likely announce the RRR cut by the end of June. Therefore, the recent central bank's open market return of liquidity belongs to the "want to rise first" before the RRR cut, and it is also in line with the previous judgment of "reduce, refinance and replace MLF to release liquidity".