China News Agency, Beijing, June 18 (Xia Bin) "For more than a year, the world's economic recovery will be deep V-shaped. This round of economic decline has caused deep pits, but the time to climb out is relatively short. Relatively fast, much faster than the 2008 global financial crisis." Xing Ziqiang, Morgan Stanley China's chief economist, gave such a judgment.
Recently, Morgan Stanley held an online media conference. Xing Ziqiang pointed out at the meeting that the global economy will show a "V-shaped" recession and a "V-shaped" rebound. It will probably rise back to the growth level before the epidemic in the first quarter of next year. GDP The growth rate returned to about 3%. It may take 4 to 5 quarters for the global economy to respond to the impact of the epidemic, which is much faster than the full 14 quarters after the 2008 financial crisis.
With regard to China in particular, Xing Ziqiang believes that due to the better control of the epidemic situation in China, the service industry and manufacturing industry have resumed work faster.
Speaking of the stock market, Morgan Stanley's China market strategist Wang Ying pointed out that the Chinese market can significantly outperform emerging markets in the next 12 months. From the perspective of relative valuation, A-shares are currently at a relatively good time to enter.
Wang Ying said that the Chinese market showed signs of a more stable and leading profit recovery than the global market, and the valuation was at a relative discount to emerging markets. From the perspective of top-down policy development, both fiscal and monetary policies have seen more positive signals.
Wang Ying emphasized that at present, the share of foreign capital held in the A-share market is relatively low, and the price is at a good time. It is recommended that investors focus on high-growth stocks, such as leading companies in the areas of consumption upgrades, new infrastructure, 5G, and China’s urbanization 2.0. , And increase the overall exposure to the service industry and the consumer industry in the stock allocation. (Finish)