INTERVIEW
In its conjuncture note published on Wednesday, INSEE now anticipates, thanks to a "very clear recovery in activity since mid-May", a fall in gross domestic product (GDP) of 17% in the second quarter, against 20 % when it was previously estimated. A rebound allowed by the acceleration of deconfinement that we already observe on the consumption figures, explains Jean-Luc Tavernier, director general of INSEE, on Europe 1 Thursday.
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Consumption "is doing well"
The French start spending again. In terms of consumption, "we were -30% in April. And now, we would be -7%", observes Jean-Luc Tavernier. And if the French consume more, this is explained mechanically by the fact that they could not consume as before during confinement because "a whole section of consumption has been put under bell". It is therefore logical that consumption should start again now that France is deconfigured.
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But the director of INSEE notes that even if "we had the impression that we were around -7%" at the time of the deconfinement in mid-May, we could think that it was due to "catch-up phenomena "and that consumption" would be worse after ". In reality, consumption "is doing well". This makes it possible to envisage encouraging figures, even if still below normal, in June. "We think that in June, we will be 5% below normal in terms of consumption, which is not so bad," he said.
"The prices of fresh products are still high"
The rebound in household consumption observed just after confinement therefore seems "lasting", as Julien Pouget, the head of the economic situation at INSEE, said on Wednesday. However, in recent months, INSEE has highlighted the rise in consumer prices, in particular for fresh products, which in April posted an increase of 17.8% over one year, 17.3% in May.
Products whose prices are "still high" today. INSEE expects a further high increase of 14.9% in June. On the other hand, Jean-Luc Tavernier notes that "lots of prices are going down", in particular the prices of fuels which, even if they increase, "remain very very low".
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A recovery in consumption which may also be explained by the fact that even if household income fell, this decline was limited thanks to the shock absorbers put in place by the State. "The shock to GDP, and therefore to the income of the whole country, is historic" but it has been "mainly absorbed" by the State and public administrations, and "a little" by companies.
Household income fell but ten times less than consumption
The share absorbed by households is therefore "ultimately a minority on average", observes Jean-Luc Tavernier, while not denying that certain households are all the same "in difficult situations". In April, household income "would drop by 2.7%" or "ten times less than consumption," he said.
The future of this recovery, with more or less affected sectors, will therefore depend on the impact and the duration of health protocols in businesses, the consumption and investment behavior of households and businesses, and finally the context international which remains "uncertain", notes INSEE.