- Suspended due to confinement, pension reform is making a comeback. According to the entourage of the President of the Republic, "certain parts of the reform could return, those concerning social justice".
- But the most controversial measures, such as the universal point system or age measures, are not yet excluded. Emmanuel Macron is due to speak this Sunday.
- According to some union and employer organizations, the use of age measures to rebalance the pension system is still possible. Especially since the economic crisis could cause a deficit of 30 billion euros in 2020, according to a first forecast of the Pensions Guidance Council.
Some hoped to be buried. Officially suspended since confinement, the question of pensions has returned. While a new speech by Emmanuel Macron is expected this Sunday, his entourage told AFP this week that "certain parts of the reform could return, those concerning social justice".
A first sign, which surprised, was the support by the deputies walkers, Wednesday, of a bill tabled by the communist deputy André Chassaigne aiming to guarantee to the farmers, a pension with 85% of the Smic from the 1st January 2022.
Points system, age measures: nothing is excluded yet
But what about the most contested measures of the reform, which had put millions of protesters on the streets this winter? This week, Emmanuel Macron said "want to keep the points system instituted by the bill, which he considers fair, and is ready to evolve on budgetary aspects," reports Le Monde .
Union organizations and employers alike believe that this would put fuel on the fire at the worst time. "Unwelcome", according to FO, without "any sense", according to the CFDT: gathered this Thursday during a round table of Ajis (Association of journalists of social information), social partners - very divided on the point system - yet consider the idea politically inappropriate.
The question of the return of "parametric" measures - which was already discussed before the crisis - in order to balance the finances of the basic regime continues to arise. "The tracks from a pivotal age to 64 years or an extension of the subscription period could resurface," said the weekly Challenges in its edition published on Thursday. This second track is mentioned by deputy LREM and rapporteur of the organic bill for pension reform Cendra Motin in the columns of Le Monde .
And for good reason, the economic crisis born of the pandemic does not help, creating a huge deficit in proportion to the announced recession: taking into account the latest forecasts, the Pensions Guidance Council already tables a negative balance at 29, 4 billion euros for 2020, against 4 billion initially. Before the crisis, the government was already looking to make up the deficit in the pension system until 2027, then estimated at 12 billion euros.
Debt transfer with limits
In an emergency, the government tabled on May 27 a bill intended to finance the deficits, until 2023, not only in the old age but also sickness and family branch. An emergency solution to remedy the crisis which involves a transfer of debt to Cades. Created in 1996, this "social debt amortization fund" aims to "pay off the debts of the general social security system" and prevent them from weighing on future generations ", as the site recalls vie-publique.fr.
). While it was to expire in 2024, it was finally extended until 2033 due to the exceptional nature of the crisis.
It remains to be seen how far this fund, whose resources are notably based on the CSG and the CRDS, will make it possible to resolve the problems of financing social protection. In its bill currently before the National Assembly, the government provided for the transfer of 136 billion euros in debt. But "this is certainly not the only answer that will be given" to remedy the pension deficit, estimates at 20 Minutes the vice-president of the CPME in charge of pensions Eric Chevée. However, he expects to have "more visibility on spending and resources and on residual differences later".
Confederal secretary in charge of pensions at Force Ouvrière, Michel Beaugas considers it possible to use such a measure. Raising the retirement age "is a real risk" because, according to him, it is the "simplest" measure (and preferred on the right) to rebalance the financing of the system. But at the cost of potential challenges, as before the crisis.
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- Covid 19
- Crisis
- Pension reform
- Emmanuel Macron
- Economy