China-Singapore Jingwei client, June 12th, China Foreign Exchange Trading Center data shows that on June 12, the central parity of RMB reported to 7.0865, down 257 points, ending nine consecutive rises.
Wind screenshot
According to Wind data, from May 29 to June 11, the central parity of the renminbi was continuously raised from 7.1316 yuan to 7.0606 yuan, achieving nine consecutive rises. On the 11th, the offshore RMB to US dollar exchange rate closed at 7.0802 yuan, 262 points lower than the previous closing price, and continued to fall below the 7.06, 7.07, 7.08 yuan mark. The spot exchange rate of onshore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.0640 yuan at night, which was 17 points lower than the last trading day.
The Fed predicts that the US economy will shrink by 6.5% in 2020, with an unemployment rate of 9.3%. Fed Chairman Powell once again issued a strong "dove" signal, promising to use all tools to help the US economy recover from the impact of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic. According to the latest interest rate resolution announced by the Federal Reserve, the federal funds benchmark interest rate will remain unchanged in the range of 0-0.25%.
On the 11th local time, the three major US stock indexes all ended in a plunge, and the Dow fell 1861.82 points.
Screenshot of the central bank's official website
Wind screenshot
According to the central bank's official website, the central bank's open market will carry out a 100 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation on the 12th. In addition, 150 billion yuan of reverse repurchase expires today. Wind data shows that this week, the central bank reversed the repurchase a total of 420 billion yuan, with a return of 220 billion yuan.
Li Yuanyuan, Director of Fixed Income of the Investment Department of HSBC Jinxin Fund, said that at present, from the perspective of the depreciation expectations reflected in the options market and the accelerated inflow of northbound funds this week, the pressure of RMB depreciation is still controllable. In the short term, the central bank of China is more cautious and restrained on loosening monetary policy compared to the zero interest rate or even negative interest rate and large water release of the Fed and the European Central Bank. The interest rate differential between China and the United States is at a high level and has certain support for the RMB exchange rate.
Earlier, CITIC Construction Investment pointed out that the probability of short-term RMB exchange rate fluctuations is relatively high, and there is still uncertainty in external demand. The current account deficit is rapidly improving and it needs to continue to observe. The overall real exchange rate of RMB after appreciation of other currencies is not low. Although the central bank depreciates There are scruples but it will not change the domestic currency easing orientation. Therefore, the RMB temporarily lacks the basis for a substantial appreciation, and it needs to wait for the current account to improve.
UBS Securities said that despite the slight depreciation of the RMB against the US dollar since the beginning of the year, it has appreciated against other major currencies and the CFETS basket of currencies. In view of the government’s desire to keep the RMB exchange rate basically stable, this year’s current account surplus may also expand, both onshore and offshore The spread is still considerable, and it is expected that the exchange rate of RMB to US dollar will be around 7 this year. (Sino-Singapore Jingwei APP)