ANALYSIS
The job world is constantly changing. The Covid-19 pandemic and the ensuing containment accelerated the transition of office workers to a more flexible mode of working with telework. Bruno Le Maire, the Minister of the Economy, expects the economic crisis to cut 800,000 jobs next month. An evolution in employment which is only the beginning of what awaits us in 10 years.
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"We have ten years to prepare us"
In the longer term, Eric Hazan, associate director of the Paris office of McKinsey, has conducted a study and prospective work on employment in ten years. Questioned by Matthieu Belliard on Thursday at the microphone of Europe 1, the analyst explained his working method which consisted in compiling 800 types of jobs, 20,000 tasks and 25 skills. He then observed the parameters of the evolution of employment to draw a general picture of what the world of employment could be in 2030. At the outset he wanted to be reassuring: "That does not mean that this will happen spend one night. We have ten years ahead of us to prepare. "
What comes out first "is the impact of automation and technology on the tasks that make up our main jobs," he says. "The other important elements are related to mobility and the aging of the population. There are also positive and negative elements on the growth of employment in different geographical areas."
" We will potentially create two million jobs by 2030 in net sales in Europe. In France this will represent more than a million additional jobs. "The specialist indeed forecasts several good news with these developments: "The employment balance will be positive in 2030. We will potentially create two million jobs by 2030 in net balance in Europe. In France, this will represent more than 'one million additional jobs', in particular thanks to support, service and new technologies.
The study - which Eric Hazan carried out before the coronavirus crisis - highlights the new skills that will be demanded first by employers. "Technological skills will be much more important. But also, and this is quite reassuring, social and emotional skills. Advanced cognitive skills: I can persuade, convince. These skill demands will be very strong," he said. before exposing those that will be in decline. "Skills that enabled us to enter the world of work thirty years ago like basic cognitive skills: I can read, write and count, or manual and technical skills, will be less in demand. a very important need for training and a need for retraining of a certain number of jobs ", he also predicts.
Clearly, jobs built on manual and technical skills will be those most affected by automation. "Jobs will be 95% automated. This will be mainly unskilled work in the manufacturing industry, but also distribution, hotels and restaurants," according to the associate director of Cabinet McKinsey. This will in fact strengthen the value of diplomas and a "re-qualification of the active population".
Paris, Rennes, Toulouse and Grenoble: very important employment pools
Finally, Eric Hazan observes a concentration of employment in around fifty European cities which are home to 20% of the population of the old continent: "We have always had a concentration of employment in a certain number of employment areas. What’s new is that this level of concentration in job growth will double in the next ten years. In France, we are in three or four zones which would in 2030 concentrate around 60% of the job growth. These are Paris, Rennes, Toulouse and Grenoble. These are areas with strong technological employment in the medium term. Currently we are at 30%, so we would double this growth. "