Concern in the main organization of the most industrialized countries with the current drift of the Spanish economy after placing it at the world head of the economic collapse this year. The need for state pacts to introduce structural reforms that make Spain more competitive and productive, control spending and debt when the coronavirus is overcome, and maintaining the 2012 labor reform are the organization's recipes and imply a change from the current one course of the coalition government.
"Without pretending to enter Spanish politics, in crises, the government and the opposition can unite to make important reforms and make the state more effective. There are issues that are not left or right. There are consensuses in many countries and the same should happen in Spain, ” former Portuguese minister Alvaro Pereira, current director of OECD country studies and responsible for, among others, the new forecasts presented yesterday for Spain, told EL MUNDO.
In them, the institution predicts that Spain will suffer the worst world collapse in the worst of the two scenarios it manages, and that is that it will produce a regrowth at the turn of summer. In that case, the fall of the Spanish Gross Domestic Product will fall this year by 14.4%, above Italy, France or the United Kingdom, the most affected countries . In that case, unemployment will exceed 20% both this year and next and the level of public debt will be around a stratospheric 130%.
gdp ocde forecast
The OECD's call for state pacts for reconstruction contrasts with the statements of the second vice president, Pablo Iglesias, last Monday, in favor of addressing the economic crisis only with left-wing parties such as Esquerra and Bildu. The OECD discourages the chapter of the coalition government's program and the pact with Bildu that plans to repeal the labor reform. "We have already said in different reports that the 2012 labor reform has had a positive effect on employment in Spain and we have not changed our minds . "
But the urgent thing, according to the general forecast of the OECD, is to give a strong response to the virus and extend, according to Pereira, in the case of Spain the so-called Temporary Employment Regulation Files (ERTE) and liquidity measures such as guarantees to sectors as necessary. "In Colombia there is a VAT refund to the most vulnerable 20% of the population, in France they talk about extending extraordinary measures up to two years ...".
The Spanish crisis will be more acute than in the Eurozone average which, in the worst case, will fall 11.5% in 2020 and grow 3.5% in 2021. Also well above the world average that will be of fall of 7.6% this year and recovery of 2.5% next year; and the OECD (which includes the US, Canada, Mexico and other non-European countries), set at a recession of 9.3% and a rebound of 2.2%.
“We have done two scenarios and in the second, in case of regrowth, the Spanish economy will suffer more than the Italian and the French, because the most affected sectors such as tourism and hospitality have a very large weight in Spain. Our message in general for all countries is that recovery will be slow and, if there is a regrowth, even slower , "says Pereira.
In the worst scenario, Spain will be the clear champion of unemployment in the OECD above Colombia, Greece, Costa Rica and Turkey, exceeding the 20% line without counting the ERTE.
In the least adverse scenario, the fall in GDP in 2020 will also be sidereal (11.1%) and unemployment will not drop from 18% neither this year nor next. The deficit will soar between 10.3% and 12.5% this year, depending on whether the pandemic subsides or reactivates. The aforementioned OECD director does not hide his concern about the drift of the fourth euro economy. “The priority now is to fight the virus, but the structural changes that Spain must make to improve its competitiveness and productivity are still there . The reduction of bureaucracy, the improvement of the labor market, all that is still pending. In the next six or twelve months we have to take that path again ». The report places Spain in the top five of "extremely high levels of public debt" along with Japan, Italy, Greece and Portugal and this forces that "in Spain and other countries there is a debate to clean up public accounts after the virus" . In his opinion, «it is clear that with all the additional expenses caused by the crisis, countries that already had a large debt such as Spain, become very large. It will need caution to avoid being such a vulnerable country. "
However, he believes that "it is premature to talk about adjustment plans in the European Union, because it will depend on the European response and the attitude of governments. If they continue to increase spending after the coronavirus they will have problems, but if they are prudent they can avoid a strong adjustment plan, "says the Portuguese, who highlights that the European response is being better than in the previous crisis after the fall of Lehman.
According to OECD Secretary General Ángel Gurría, “Health or the economy is a false dilemma. Without pandemic control, there will be no robust economic recovery. ” "At the end of 2021 the loss of income will exceed that of all previous recessions of the last hundred years except in the period of war, with dire and lasting consequences," said the OECD chief economist. Laurence Boone.
NO OFFICIAL FEEDBACK
SILENCE OF THE GOVERNMENT AGAINST THE NEGATIVE WORLD LEADERSHIP
The government yesterday avoided officially reacting to one of the most negative OECD reports for the Spanish economy on record. Pedro Sánchez, and the various ministers avoided commenting on it, and the third vice president, Nadia Calviño, did not issue her traditional official statement describing the OECD half-yearly forecasts.
Sánchez did seem to assume that the deficit should be lowered when the virus passes, but he resisted admitting cuts in response to a parliamentary question from Bildu's spokeswoman, Mertxe Aizpurua. "Situations with a deficit of 10% of GDP" will have to be tackled in the future. How? Spurring growth and making a fiscal reform so that there is greater fiscal justice, "he responded, aiming exclusively at increasing income, rather than cutting expenses. On the other hand, the commercial distribution association Anged highlighted that, according to the OECD, containment measures in Spain have subtracted 9.5 points from the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per week, the largest of the OECD countries.
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