- Describing themselves willingly as a “galley generation”, young people fear paying the heaviest price from the economic crisis born of the pandemic, reveals our latest barometer “#MeYoung, Deconfined and tomorrow? "20 Minutes" - OpinionWay.
- This fear is all the more justified since unemployment among young people is structurally higher than that of the population as a whole. With this pandemic, the least qualified young people or those from professional fields are particularly exposed.
- In 2008, the crisis had already worsened their difficulties.
We could think them carefree, more spared than the others by the Covid-19 pandemic. It is not so. Those under 30 also have their reasons for concern. According to our latest barometer “#MeYoung, Deconfinite and tomorrow? "20 Minutes" - OpinionWay, 57% of 18-27 year olds believe they will pay the heaviest price of the pandemic, as do 53% of 18-30 year olds. If they are a priori less exposed in terms of health than their elders, they risk conversely having even more difficulty finding a job.
A galley they already knew and which is likely to worsen. At the end of 2019, INSEE estimated that 568,000 young people under 25, or 19.2% of them, declared that they were looking for work. This was already twice the rate of the unemployed in the labor force, then at 8.1%. But with the crisis, according to the executive's scenarios, between 165,000 and 320,000 additional young people could be unemployed in the second half of 2020.
Hard blow to learning
According to sociologist Emmanuel Sulzer, youth employment serves as an adjustment variable in times of crisis. “Apprenticeship and learning are procyclical: we take them when there are needs. If there is a very strong economic slowdown, then there is a halt. This is a French peculiarity. In other countries, such as Germany, recruitment of young people continues even during periods of contraction, ”illustrates this researcher at Cereq.
According to him, it is especially young people leaving professional fields, aiming at CAP or Bac pro, who are likely to be the most concerned. “Crafts in the broad sense, that is to say, catering trades, hairdressing, construction, are massively recruiting apprentices. And in the industry, the situation of which is uncertain today, these young people usually have good integration rates, "he continues.
With the crisis, which weakens small businesses, entry into apprenticeships is therefore likely to dry up. In agriculture, industry, construction or accommodation, or even the arts and entertainment, employers anticipate falls in apprenticeship contracts ranging from 15 to 35% in 2020, according to the Ministry of Labor. Hence the apprenticeship recovery plan announced in early June, which aims to make these contracts as attractive as possible for employers.
The large schools less worried
The situation of young people in higher education is less clear. However, some of them are already seeing their plans thwarted. The Association for the employment of managers (Apec) noted at the end of April a fall of 69% in the number of job offers for young graduates, against 62% for managers. The sustainability of their jobs is also threatened when we know that 31% of 2018 graduates are currently on fixed-term or temporary contracts. Hence a "queue" that could further lengthen.
However, "the ever-increasing need for business innovation will continue to open up opportunities for young graduates, especially those from disciplines with high technological content", predicts the organization, which helps the integration of executives and young graduates. On the other hand, for those who come out of humanities, letters, languages, the difficulties are likely to worsen.
As for large schools, we also keep calm. "We are not necessarily extremely worried, our students had a very high integration speed, with a rate of 70% of students who sign a contract before leaving school, explains Laurent Champaney, vice-president of the Conference of the Grandes Ecoles. On the employers' side, there has been no tendency to announce freezes of all recruitments. ” However, “we are sending the message that they will be less in a prime position. So it is better to favor a job over a waiting phase. ”
New insecurities
“The crisis and its consequences will increase inequalities within generations and give rise to new forms of precariousness. Young people who were on the razor's edge risk falling into great poverty. The fact of not being able to enter the job market will reinforce the precariousness of those who will not be able to count on their parents ", summarizes Antoine Dulin, who represents student organizations and youth movements at the Economic, Social and Environmental Council .
Return to the fold for lack of being able to pay the rent, plans to start a family: the crisis will change the plans of the young generations. Some may be prevented from continuing their studies if they cannot find a food job or a work-study contract. Even repay their student loans. "For higher education students, especially those from less advantaged backgrounds, an apprenticeship contract is sometimes essential to the funding of studies" underlines the conference of university presidents, who regrets that aid for learning do not also concern master levels.
Morale blow
The crisis is also likely to leave traces in people's minds. “It plays on their psychological state. When you struggle for six months looking for work, you lose self-confidence and you can have psychological problems, ”adds Antoine Dulin. Situations from which it can be difficult to get out, especially when one is unemployed or qualified or in a situation of poverty. “The peripheral barriers to employment (mobility, health, precarious living conditions, housing, social security, digital literacy), far from being marginal or secondary, constitute for some young people real barriers to entry into the workforce. labor market ”, noted in 2017 France Strategy, the think tank attached to Matignon.
In an emergency, the government granted “exceptional” aid of 200 euros for 800,000 young people to offset the effects of the crisis. However, the issue of youth employment remains a concern: the subject remains at the table for its discussions which are currently taking place with the social partners. A sign that the problem is still far from being resolved. Between 2008 and 2012, the unemployment rate for those under 25 jumped from 17.5% to more than 26.2%. He then began a slow recession, which the Covid-19 pandemic could well stop.
* Barometer “#MeYoung, Deconfinite and tomorrow? », 20 Minutes - OpinionWay, produced online from June 5 to 8, 2020 with a representative sample of 774 young people aged 18 to 30, using the quota method.
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- Covid 19
- Economic crisis
- Youth
- Economy
- Youth unemployment