China-Singapore Jingwei client, June 10 (Zhang Shunan) Since this year, the year-on-year growth rate of the national CPI (Consumer Price Index) has returned from "5" to "3", showing a downward trend from month to month. On June 10, the National Bureau of Statistics will release national CPI data for May. The agency predicts that this trend is expected to continue, and the May CPI year-on-year growth rate may fall back to the "2 era".

CPI's downward channel is expected to open

　　In the first quarter of this year, CPI rose by 4.9% year-on-year, and the growth rate expanded by 3.1 percentage points year-on-year. In terms of months, the CPI rose 1.4% month-on-month in January and 5.4% year-on-year; the CPI growth rate in February fell back to 0.8% and 5.2% year-on-year. In March, as the domestic epidemic prevention and control situation continued to improve, transportation logistics gradually recovered, and market supply continued to improve, the CPI fell from a rise to a decline of 1.2%, and the year-on-year increase fell to 4.3%.

　　In addition, in April, the trend of prevention and control of the new domestic pneumonia epidemic situation was further consolidated, and the order of production and life was quickly restored. From a quarter-on-quarter perspective, the CPI fell by 0.9% in April, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month.

　　For the upcoming May CPI data, Sino-Singapore Jingwei client statistics, as of June 9, the average forecast of 18 institutions is 2.7%, of which the highest forecast value is 3.0%, the lowest value is 2.3%.

　　CITIC Securities analyzed in the research report that as a consumer product just in need, the price drop is usually interpreted as a rebound in supply. In May, the price of pigs fell more than the previous month. Although the prices of seven key fruits increased slightly, it is not expected to prevent the overall food prices from falling year-on-year. For non-food items, consumer demand is still in the process of recovery after the epidemic, and overall fluctuations are expected to be limited. Overall, the year-on-year growth rate of CPI is expected to be 2.9%, basically establishing the opening of the downward channel during the year.

　　Minsheng Securities, which gives the lowest forecast, believes that since May, the prices of pork, beef, mutton and fresh vegetables have declined, the prices of vegetables have dropped significantly, and the prices of fruits have increased slightly. Overall, the CPI is expected to fall to 2.3% in May. As the pig cycle enters the second half, it is expected that the CPI will continue to fall in June.

"Second Brother" or continue to cut prices

　　Photographed by Zhang Shunan

　　The price rise of the "Second Brother", who was one of the important promoters of the CPI's increase, was not as good as before. In May, the pork price fluctuated and adjusted, and it no longer continued the previous surge. The wholesale price fell for four consecutive weeks, but the last week of May was slightly lower than last month. rise.

　　In order to curb the "take-off" of pork prices, various ministries and commissions have promoted a series of measures to stabilize production and guarantee supply of live pigs. On May 22, the Minister of Agriculture and Rural Affairs Han Changfu gave several sets of data: Starting from October 2019, the ability to breed sows began to decline and rebounded. It has been growing for 7 consecutive months so far, and in May it has increased from September last year. 18.7%, live pig inventory has also increased for three consecutive months.

　　Han Changfu said that it is still very promising to continue to follow this momentum and achieve this year's hog production recovery goal, that is, to return to the level close to normal levels.

　　While the production capacity of hogs is gradually recovering, the continued supply of frozen pork also has an impact on its prices. According to Huachu.com, as of May 27, the central reserve frozen pork has been put in 20 times during the year, with a cumulative amount of 380,000 tons.

　　Zhuo Chuang Information analyst Guo Dandan predicts that with the increase in slaughter by farmers in late June, the hot weather will lead to a downturn in market consumption. It is expected that pork prices may decline, but there is not much room for it.

　　Regarding the future price trend, Yan Pengcheng, director of the National Economic Integration Department of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that in the second half of 2019, consumer prices, especially pork and other important food prices, have risen faster; this year, due to the impact of the epidemic, prices, especially the prices of important livelihood commodities The trend has become the focus of social attention. With the further recovery of the production and living order of the whole society, the CPI increase is expected to continue to decline, and the trend will be "high before low" throughout the year.

　　Huatai Securities expects that this year's CPI year-on-year growth rate will decline quarter-by-quarter, and food prices will be more strongly traction year-on-year. Pig price and fruit price are the two variables that significantly affect CPI during the year. Due to the good recovery of hog production capacity, pork prices in the second half of this year may fall faster than the same period last year, and fruit prices in the middle of the year may also fall faster than the same period last year, helping to reduce CPI. (Sino-Singapore Jingwei APP)

　　All rights reserved by Sino-Singapore Jingwei. Without written authorization, no unit or individual may reproduce, extract or use in other ways.