DANIEL VIAÑA
@DanielVianaR
ALBERTO HERNÁNDEZ
@albertohv_
Tuesday, June 9, 2020 - 23:11
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- Coronavirus. The Bank of Spain increases the collapse of the economy to a maximum of 15% and anticipates three years of crisis
- Coronavirus. Two lost decades in debt reduction: AIReF warns that only the "consensus" will save the accounts
The crisis derived from the coronavirus pandemic is something that has happened, what economists define as an unpredictable external shock to the economy and whose consequences are equally difficult to foresee. Therefore, all agencies, study centers and analysts are being very careful with their estimates, posing various scenarios and warning that the situation can change substantially. But also, because one of the lessons learned from the Great Recession is that the estimates failed miserably and that, with very few exceptions, no one anticipated the recession nor did it succeed in development.
Going to the panel made by Funcas, where this Foundation gathers the forecasts of a good number of important analysts such as BBVA Research, Repsol, CEOE and, at the time, Caja Madrid, it is verified that in April 2008 it was assumed that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) would grow more than 2%. Only two of its analysts, specifically Afi and Funcas itself, anticipated a certain slowdown during the following year, but always starting from a rise of more than 1.5%. The reality is that in 2008 the Spanish economy barely grew by 0.9% and in 2009 the recession was a remarkable 3.8%.
Still a year later, that data continued without being accurately anticipated by many of the same panelists. Starting in the second quarter of 2009, estimates were around 3% contraction. Instead, for the following year, just the opposite happened: the economy barely saved the recession. Something very similar happened with employment, since in the vast majority of cases the data was always behind reality, with years like 2009 in which the actual figure ended up doubling the initial forecast: 9% vs. 18 % unemployment .
Neither was a body as relevant and with as many resources as the Bank of Spain capable, much less, of getting closer to reality. As in the previous cases, it was not able to notice the crisis, when it rectified it continued to fall short and finally it did not foresee the small recovery in 2010 either.
In addition, the BdE study service then led by José Luis Malo de Molina estimated that in 2011 the economy would rebound, when what actually happened is that the country returned to recession with a fall of 0.8%. And for 2012, the initial forecast was again a rebound and later a downward revision to 1.8%. The bottom line: a 3% drop in GDP .
In the face of this crisis, as already pointed out, both the Bank of Spain itself and many analysts are choosing to create scenarios. Two or even three, which allows us to give an idea of the great uncertainties that exist, but also cover a greater range. And yet, even so, it cannot be ruled out that the figures are even worse, as the renewed and now called General Directorate of Economy and Statistics pointed out on Monday.
In accordance with the criteria of The Trust Project
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