China News Client, Beijing, June 10 (Xie Yiguan) The National Bureau of Statistics will announce the National Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May on May 10. The market generally expects that the CPI increase in May may be further reduced and return to the "2 era" after an interval of 8 months.

CPI rise chart. From the National Bureau of Statistics

May CPI year-on-year increase may return to the "2 era"

  Affected by the accelerated recovery of production and living order and the decline in the prices of pork and other foods, the CPI rose by 3.3% year-on-year in April, a decrease of 1.0 percentage point from March, and returned to the "3 era" again after 5 months.

  Will the CPI increase in May continue to fall? According to Wind information statistics, the average forecast value of 18 research institutions for the year-on-year increase of CPI in May was 2.7%. Among them, the predicted maximum value is 3.0% and the minimum value is 2.3%. If the above average forecast value is fulfilled, the CPI increase in May will be reduced by 0.6 percentage points from April, and will return to the "2 era" after an interval of 8 months.

  According to the monitoring of the “National Agricultural Products Wholesale Market Price Information System” by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the “Agricultural Wholesale Price 200 Index” in May 2020 was 114.95, a decrease of 8.47 points from the previous month and a year-on-year increase of 0.57 points. Among them, the average wholesale price of pork (the average wholesale price of white-striped meat) was 40.46 yuan/kg, a decrease of 9.8% from the previous month and an increase of 96.1% from the same period last year.

  The monitoring data also shows that as of the fourth week of May (May 22-May 28), the national average wholesale price of pork fell for 14 consecutive weeks, falling to 38.82 yuan / kg.

  "Since May, food prices have generally declined significantly. The weekly frequency of edible agricultural products price index has fallen to 127.48 points, and the May average has dropped by 4.7%. The pork price continued to fall, and the average wholesale price of pork fell to about 38 yuan/kg. The May average fell by nearly 9% month-on-month. With the increase in the number of live pigs, pork prices have more room to fall." said Liu Xuezhi, a senior researcher at the Bank of Communications Financial Research Center.

  "International crude oil prices and commodity prices have stopped stabilizing, consumer demand is gradually recovering, and non-food prices are expected to remain stable. The tail-rising factor in May is basically the same as last month." Liu Xuezhi pointed out that combining the above factors, the CPI is expected in May The year-on-year increase narrowed further, possibly between 2.3% and 2.7%, with a median of 2.5%.

On June 6, people in Lhasa bought goods in the supermarket. Photograph by Jiang Feibo

What is the future trend of CPI year-on-year increase?

  Will the CPI's year-on-year increase continue to decline in the future? According to Liu Chenhan, a fixed-income analyst at Northeast Securities, the fall in CPI growth is not a temporary but a trending fall. The impact of the pig cycle, superimposed by the plunge of crude oil prices and the secondary impact of the epidemic, the CPI growth rate in the second quarter may fall below 3%.

  "The CPI increase in the second half of the year should be below 3%, and it is more likely to fall below 2% in the fourth quarter." Liu Chenhan pointed out.

  Pork price is an important factor that affects the rise of CPI. Data show that the average wholesale price of pork rebounded slightly in the first week of June. Will there be a sharp rise again in the future, which will in turn raise CPI?

  "Since October last year, the number of sows that have been able to grow has stopped rising. It has been growing for seven consecutive months. In May, it has increased by 18.7% compared with September last year. The pig stock has also increased for three consecutive months." Minister of Agriculture and Rural Affairs Han Changfu said on May 22 that as pig production resumes, the supply-demand relationship will gradually improve, and the price of pork in the future market will not increase significantly. (Finish)