Portuguese Finance Minister Mario Centeno will leave his post next Monday. Since the end of last year, rumors about his departure have been constant in Lisbon and Brussels. What in January was a possibility in May was already considered the main scenario, with speculation about clashes with Prime Minister Antonio Costa , fatigue or the possibility that he would occupy the position of governor of the country's central bank. But just like the beating of a butterfly in America generates a hurricane in Russia, the decision of a Portuguese politician has consequences for the institutional skeleton of the EU. And it can lead to the Spanish vice president, Nadia Calviño , reinforcing her figure as president of the Eurogroup

Centeno has also been, for two and a half years, the president of the entity that brings together the holders of the Economy and Finance. His term ends on July 13 and, evidently, he will not repeat. Now the exact same situation is reproduced as with his predecessor, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, who after ceasing as head of Finance in The Hague had to exceptionally prolong his presidency for a few weeks in order to properly square the succession. "My term as head of the Eurogroup ends on July 13. This Thursday I will inform my colleagues of the decision not to seek a second term," Centeno explained today. "On Thursday I will also open the deadline for candidacies and set the process for the election [of my successor], scheduled for the Eurogroup on July 9," he added.

The announcement has not taken anyone by surprise. Capitals had long since begun to move, to study possibilities and to launch probe balloons. Presiding over the Eurogroup does not confer great powers, but it serves to outline the agendas, prioritize issues, decide working methods , coordinate positions, speak for others. And that position, in the midst of the worst recession in the Union's history, has a double value.

Half a dozen European and diplomatic sources, in Brussels, The Hague, Berlin and Paris, recognize that Calviño is the best located and the one that, a priori, would have more possibilities and a very clear path. But to understand what is at stake, however, it is necessary to broaden one's gaze. The Eurogroup management is not one of the so-called community top jobs , such as the presidency of the Commission, the Council, the European Parliament and the ECB or the high representative for EU Foreign Policy, but it is negotiated in a similar way. In the last decade it has been a key element of the political balance, of the division between left and right, north and south. Dijsselbloem was a hawk, but formally a Social Democrat, and was the counterpoint when the European People's Party had with Juncker, Tajani and Tusk the three great presidencies. The socialists managed to keep the square with Centeno and now they aspire to continue like this, without altering the order that emerged from that marathon European summit in July last year.

Three candidates

There are players who have not wanted to move so far, so as not to burn capital unnecessarily if Centeno chose to continue. And others who do not want to waste ammunition. The European and diplomatic sources now point to three names that are the most frequently repeated in the pools and rounds: the Spanish Nadia Calviño ; Luxembourgish Pierre Gramegna , eternal candidate and one of the oldest in the community ministers' room; and the Irish Paschal Donohoe .

In favor of Calviño she plays her long experience in the European institutions, which is the minister of the largest country of those governed by the Socialists or that there is a chronic deficit of women in high positions. And a certain sense of historical repair. "Spain has wanted the position for five years. Luis de Guindos fought for it and although a Spanish woman behind a Portuguese generates certain misgivings in the countries that we all know, it is enough to pull the list of presidents of institutions in recent decades to see that the Cynicism has its limits, "explains a continental diplomat. " Calviño is the natural replacement. He maintains his balance and is highly respected by all the actors. I would be surprised even if there were a vote," they explain in the Council.

That and that the rest of the large countries are more limited right now by various factors. Germany already chairs the European Commission, the Mede, the European Investment Bank or the Single Resolution Board. It is true that within the government coalition, the Finance portfolio falls to a social democrat like Olaf Scholz, and that in the last 12 months a spectacular revolution has materialized in his department, with the entry of a new generation of economists and politicians with a radically different vision than previous teams. But the option is off the table.

France has the ECB, and although Bruno Le Maire could try to add weight in the Elisha they consider a priori more interesting to have an ally than to own a soldier. "Spain and France agree on the general lines of the recovery and on how the Eurozone has to advance in the next two and a half years. We could work well together," say French sources.

Italy is practically ruled out . His minister Roberto Gualtieri, a former MEP, is from the PD, a socialist who knows the issues very well, but the commissioner for Economic Affairs, Paolo Gentiloni, is already a compatriot. As is Andrea Enria, responsible for banking supervision, or Gualtiere's own substitute at the head of the Economic Affairs Committee of the European Parliament, Irene Tinagli. There have been certain strings and loosens, but Calviño has managed to avoid direct clashes with Rome and knows Gualtieri well from his time in Brussels.

The Netherlands is not going to apply, after having Dijsselbloem. Finland already has the president of the Eurogroup Working Group, which is in charge of the day-to-day management of the entity. Austria is the Popular Party and Denmark and Sweden (the other frugal) are not in the euro. So it all depends on balances, internal and external. In The Hague they point out that they do not yet have a favorite or any preventive veto. Obviously they prefer whoever is more in tune with their vision (which does not happen with any of the aforementioned), but in the Eurogroup they see the option of blocking as unrealistic. No one in the south opposed the Finnish Tuomas Saarenheimo's election a few months ago as 'number two' for Rye from Brussels. And, in any case, they have already placed a Nordic rigorist as the president's bodyguards, doing the bulk of the work in the shadows.

Parallel debate

Simultaneously with this specific debate there is another that affects a much juicier position: the World Trade Organization . Its CEO, Brazilian Roberto Azevedo, is going to leave earlier than expected, and the fight for succession has begun. A few weeks ago, specialized publications put on the table the name of the Spanish Minister of Foreign Affairs, Arancha González Laya , who has extensive experience in the home. However, the European Commissioner for Trade, the Irish Phil Hogan, has confirmed on Tuesday that he wants the position. He has done so after a meeting with his colleagues at the age of 27 to discuss precisely what unique candidacy to present.

Europe has already had three of the last six CEOs. There is no unwritten rule, like the one that for decades has allowed the US and the EU to share the IMF and the World Bank, but almost. And now, with the trade wars, pressure from Beijing and Washington, Brexit and threats to the international order, the EU considers it a matter of absolute strategic interest to have a good pawn. And although remodeling the College of Commissioners is a mess for Ursula von der Leyen, offering the first sword in the field can be a good deal.

The first option was in fact her predecessor, Cecilia Malmstrom , but the Swedish woman has the veto of the Trump administration, which collided very hard with her in recent years due to the tariff war. González Laya could generate a certain consensus, with a very appropriate profile, but in Madrid they have to make a decision very quickly.

It is practically impossible for a country like Spain or Ireland to be eligible for both places at the same time. One is very complicated to dream of two . So if the balance tips from Lake Hogan in the WTO it is possible that it will raise Spain to the Eurogroup. There, all the sources consulted see a much more within reach victory that could be jeopardized if efforts are diverted and favors are paid. There is nothing closed, the Orthodox can look for an alternative, but there are not many cards in this deck.

These days rumors skyrocket in all capitals. For example, the option that Calviño, who aspired to the post at the head of the World Bank that the Bulgarian Kristalina Georgieva eventually obtained, could end up in Paris at the head of the OECD, replacing Ángel Gurría. Politically a much less interesting alternative. Lots of photos, lots of cocktails and lots of forums, but little rel influence and no power.

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