INTERVIEW
After its shutdown and its gradual restart, the French economy will take time to recover from the coronavirus pandemic, warns the Bank of France Tuesday. "Two years, it seems plausible to me," says Philippe Dessertine, economist, at the microphone of Europe 1. "The consequences of the health crisis are serious, and will continue to be felt," he warns.
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The Banque de France anticipates a record fall of around 10% of GDP this year, as well as a historic unemployment rate in mid-2021, which could reach 11.5%. "The end of partial unemployment will lead, around September or October, to a sharp rise in unemployment," predicts Philippe Dessertine. For the moment, this device has enabled him to avoid large layoff plans. "Then, SMEs may suffer," he laments.
Towards higher taxes?
And this rise in unemployment is likely to weigh on public spending. "One of the solutions, which is a partial solution, is the tax solution," explains the economist. But here again, the unknowns are numerous. What type of tax, for example, could be increased? "The ISF is not a solution, it reports very little in relation to VAT or the CSG", dismisses Philippe Dessertine.
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"It's a vicious circle"
It is however doubtful as to the advisability of increasing the VAT, since that could discourage the consumption of the French ... and thus prevent the revival of the economy. "It's a vicious circle ...", he says. The recovery in household consumption is, according to the Banque de France, "the essential element" of the recovery. With cumulative savings around 100 billion euros, the household savings rate will exceed 22% this year and consumption will fall by 9.3%.